Keldon Johnson has been a delightful surprise for the San Antonio Spurs since they selected him with the 29th overall pick of the 2019 NBA Draft.
Although he spent most of his rookie season in the G League, the combo forward established himself as a promising prospect inside the infamous bubble with an intriguing combination of strength, energy, and shooting.
His second go-round with the Silver and Black was full of immense peaks and valleys as he searched for a niche beside Derrick White, Jakob Poeltl, Dejounte Murray, and DeMar DeRozan in his new role as a regular starter. His efficiency fell across the board, though his development persuaded Gregg Popovich to bring him along for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.
After spending a month with superstars like Kevin Durant, Damian Lillard, Devin Booker, and Zach LaVine, many expected Keldon to return from his Gold Medal experience and make the “Olympic Leap” during his third year in the Silver and Black. However, Keldon sputtered out of the gates as the developmental signs failed to materialize immediately.
The 22-year-old wing averaged 15.5 points and 6.4 rebounds on measly .446/.241/.667 shooting splits across his first 12 games of the season, and San Antonio going 4-8 over that span only compounded the concern. Yet despite the sluggish start, Keldon has recovered for his best year to date, further proving there is no perfectly linear path toward improvement.
So, where has the University of Kentucky alum made the most meaningful strides? And which skills can he realistically enhance to transform himself into the second All-Star caliber player the Spurs need to rejoin the playoff picture as a perennial contender?
First and foremost, his three-point shooting has been the most significant part of opening up the rest of his arsenal. And once Keldon went 6-of-9 from beyond the arc against the Lakers, something clicked inside his head that made him nearly automatic. For a 40 game stretch from November 14 to February 11, he shot an absurd 46.6% from deep.
Shooting percentages alone don’t provide enough context to read into the results. There are levels to shooting. Are you a standstill opportunist? Do you constantly relocate on the perimeter and make defenders toil to keep track of you? Can you make shots screaming off screens or running in any direction? These are all critical when discussing who classifies as an elite marksman.
Per BBall Index, Keldon classifies as a stationary shooter. Considering 89.2% of his three-point attempts have come via catch-and-shoot looks, it would be fair to say that label adds up. These facts aren’t supposed to dismiss Johnson. Instead, they should serve to clarify what he does well, which is nail threes at a ridiculous rate from a fixed position.
The beauty with Keldon is defenses have to pick their poison with the six-five forward. He doesn’t possess the fastest motion, but his release is too high for smaller stoppers, and closeouts rarely speed up his process. And if you run him off the three-point line, Johnson feels right at home putting the ball on the floor and aggressively attacking the rim.
Cementing a reputation as a sharpshooter and expanding his arsenal of finishes have enhanced his numbers inside the paint. At the beginning of this season, Keldon was content to function as a human battering ram at the basket, often putting his head down with a predetermined decision in mind and forcing impossible layups or missing open teammates.
The Chesterfield native converted only 58% of his shots in the restricted area before the All-Star Break, which was seven percentage points below league average (65%). He has nailed 66.7% of his attempts from that zone during his last 15 contests. Johnson adding floaters, euro-steps, and mid-air ball manipulation has caused this spike. Clever use of deceleration and the awareness to target non-rim-protecting bigs have also helped.
As mentioned earlier, Keldon was particularly prone to putting on blinders and going full steam ahead regardless of the scenario. While the Big Body still tends to force things near the rim, there has been a pronounced jump in his passing. Johnson is finding open teammates, and his turnover, pass, and assist percentages out of drives have shifted in a reassuring direction since recording a career-high 34 points in Minnesota.
These tweaks and alterations from Keldon have helped San Antonio make a furious late-season push towards qualifying for the Western Conference play-in tournament. Whether the Spurs miss out on the single-elimination festivities or pull off a Cinderella run into the playoffs, the hours Johnson works during the Summer will determine his trajectory. With that in mind, here are some areas he should shore up.
Ball-handling may be the most demanding attribute to master. And though Popovich will probably never ask Keldon to pilot the offense for extended minutes, a tighter handle may warrant additional pick-and-roll or isolation possessions. He has displayed flashes as a self-creator out of these sets, but help-defenders and small guards were able to poke the ball free with relative ease.
Diversifying his dribble package is the one attribute that opens a world of scoring possibilities for the Spurs youngster. He has jacked an occasional pull-up three and experimented with midrange jumpers, and getting to his spots will become easier when he doesn’t solely have to rely on his frame to generate space.
Keldon Johnson has been miscast as a secondary option for a club devoid of proven scorers this season. That could expeditiously change if he adds to what is already a solid foundation. The former late first-rounder has put himself among legendary names within San Antonio’s record books in just his third year in the 2-1-0. And with his unyielding work ethic, he has shot chance to emerge as the next homegrown standout.
