James Outman, Masataka Yoshida Early-Season Rookie of the Year Favorites

A year ago this week, Julio Rodriguez had the first “oh wow” game of his career as he went 4-for-4 with a homer and two RBIs to lift the Seattle Mariners past the New York Mets, 8-7.

At the same time about 1,200 miles to the southwest, Michael Harris II went 0-for-4 for the Double-A Mississippi Braves.

Rodriguez and Harris, of course, went on to win the Rookie of the Year — almost unanimously in the case of Rodriguez, who received 29 of 30 American League first-place votes, and resoundingly so in the case of Harris, who earned 22 National League first-place votes to beat out teammate Spencer Strider, who got the other eight first-place nods.

But this time machine trip is brought to you by the idea that the first two months of the Major League Baseball season are filled with moments in which we never really know how or when a player will arrive as a Rookie of the Year favorite, or if we even recognize if he’s on the radar.

Are the successors to Rodriguez and Harris grabbing headlines right now? Or are their ascents still to come as the super two deadline approaches and teams very coincidentally (wink wink) become more eager to promote their most promising prospects to the majors? 

Here’s a look at five Rookie of the Year candidates in each league. All odds from DraftKings as of May 15.

American League

Masataka Yoshida, Red Sox OF (+110): Everyone was aware of Yoshida but for all the wrong reasons when he got off to an incredibly slow start by hitting .213 with a .619 OPS and just three extra base hits in his first 71 plate appearances. But Yoshida has been red-hot since Apr. 23, a span in which he’s hitting .371 with a 1.088 OPS and 10 extra-base hits in 79 plate appearances. He also had a 14-game hitting streak from Apr. 20 through May 7 in which he had 10 multi-hit games. All caveats apply about the ebbs and flows of a long season, but Yoshida is the clear favorite in mid-May.

Josh Jung, Rangers 3B (+700): The Rangers found Adrian Beltre’s long-term replacement before Beltre could become eligible for the Hall of Fame. Jung’s lopsided strikeout-to-walk ratio —he’s whiffed 50 times while drawing just eight walks in 164 plate appearances this season — suggest he’ll be prone to some slumps, but the power (a .433 slugging percentage with 23 extra-base hits in his first 252 big league at-bats dating back to last year) is legit for the 25-year-old building block.

Bryce Miller, Mariners P: (+1000): Not to repeat ourselves, but it’s hard for a starting pitcher to win the Rookie of the Year. It’s also hard to not take Miller seriously after he opened his career by going 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA and 0.42 WHIP and allowing three or fewer baserunners in each of his first three starts. With just 162 2/3 minor league innings — none above Double-A — prior to his promotion two weeks ago, Miller might be particularly vulnerable to a shutdown. But the Mariners, down Robbie Ray and Easton McGill, might also have no choice but to let the Strider lookalike cook like Strider circa 2022.

Bryce Miller is the first pitcher to allow no more than 3 baserunners (H, BB, HBP) in 6+ innings pitched in each of his first 3 career MLB appearances since the mound was set at its current distance in 1893.

h/t @EliasSports pic.twitter.com/smbu9ADub2

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 13, 2023

Anthony Volpe, Yankees SS: (+1100): Volpe, the first rookie to start at shortstop on Opening Day since Derek Jeter, won’t cruise unimpeded to the Rookie of the Year a la Jeter in 1996. Bust alert! Kidding. Volpe’s struggles got him dropped from the leadoff spot on Friday, and he responded to batting seventh by going 5-for-11 with two homers and four RBIs as the Yankees made a big statement by winning two of the final three games of a four-game set against the first-place Tampa Bay Rays. Volpe is also 13-for-13 stealing bases — the best base stealing start by a Yankees player Joe DiMaggio opened 13-for-13 but over a three-year span — while playing solid defense. This is an intriguing value for a player who seems to have whatever “it” takes to thrive in New York. 

Hunter Brown, Astros P (+1400): Brown (4-1, 3.43 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) hasn’t been as spectacular as Miller, but he’s got the benefit of having opened the season in the majors and performing for a team that may have no alternative other than leaving him in the rotation all year. The Astros, who lost Luis Garcia to Tommy John surgery and will be without Lance McCullers Jr. until at least the middle of next month, are already four games behind the Rangers in the AL West and a game behind the Yankees in the race for the final wild card.

National League

James Outman, Dodgers OF (+135): The highest OPS+ in a lineup that includes the Hall of Fame-bound Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts and a former 40-homer hitter in J.D. Martinez belongs to Outman (143 OPS+), who has gone consecutive starts without a hit just five times. In addition to batting in the middle of the order for a contender, Outman has also manned a premium defensive position. Can anyone top that combo? Well…

Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks OF (+200): …it’s hard for hotly hyped rookies to remain as such all season, as Bobby Witt Jr. learned last year, but Carroll has wasted little time proving the Diamondbacks were right to sign him to a nine-figure deal following last season’s 32-game cameo. Carroll has an .829 OPS with five homers and 10 steals in 12 attempts while playing each outfield position. Outman is a clear favorite now, but Carroll is ready to pounce in case of regression by his rival, especially if the Diamondbacks stay atop the wild card race and offer voters a potential tiebreaker scenario in his favor.

Have this random gut feel that Corbin Carroll is about to go nuclear on a streak of white hot production

— Vlad Sedler (@RotoGut) May 16, 2023

Brett Baty, Mets 3B (+800): As the New York Post noted last week, the Mets are in the very strange position of both looking dangerously ancient and having three potential Rookie of the Year candidates. Because of his position and his efficiency issues (23 walks in 37 innings). pitcher Kodai Senga seems like a longshot. But Baty, the starting third baseman against right-handers since his promotion Apr. 18, has displayed a solid eye at the plate (eight walks and 16 strikeouts in 84 plate appearances while offering a sweet left-handed power stroke and playing plus defense at a premium position. He’s a longshot with Outman and Carroll already established as favorites, but one worth keeping an eye on.

Francisco Alvarez, Mets C (+5000): So, too, is Alvarez, who was slated to spend a bulk of the season working on his catching skills at Triple-A Syracuse before Omar Narvaez suffered a left calf strain in early April. Alvarez is a decided work in progress at the plate, where he’s struck out 21 times and drawn just four walks in 73 plate appearances, but he brings some much-needed pure power to a team with none of it outside of Pete Alonso and has been garnering raves from Buck Showalter for his work with the Mets’ pitchers.

Matt McLain, Reds IF (n/a): McLain wasn’t on the board at most books before the season, but he earned the promotion to Cincinnati by hitting .348 with a 1.184 OPS, 10 steals and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 34/29 at Triple-A Louisville. He’ll get all the playing time he can handle for the rebuilding Reds and is an appetizer for the real #NoMoreSuperTwoSzn prize in teammate Elly De La Cruz (+5000), who should be magically promoted next month once he’s no longer eligible for arbitration in 2025.