As has been written on these pages before, the likelihood of a skill player winning MVP is negligible because quarterbacks rightfully dominate the discussion.
Offensive Player of the Year, though, is not categorized by value, which opens up the conversation to everyone on that side of the ball.
There are two clear favorites to come away with the award this season, and it’s going to be a really interesting vote, because each has a solid case to secure the hardware.
2021 Season:
Jonathan Taylor:
1,626 rushing yards
19 total touchdownsCooper Kupp:
1,762 receiving yards
14 total touchdownsWho is your OPOY? 🤔
— PointsBet Sportsbook (@PointsBetUSA) December 29, 2021
So who is more deserving, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor or Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp? They have identical -110 odds on DraftKings, and here is the breakdown.
Jonathan Taylor
It has been a phenomenal season for Taylor, who leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,626) and rushing touchdowns (17) while doing so at an extremely efficient 5.5 yards per carry despite heavy volume.
The second-year back out of Wisconsin has helped Indianapolis recover from a 1-4 start and now has it firmly in the AFC playoff mix.
The advanced stats are big fans of Taylor. He has 448 more rushing yards than expected this season, per NFL’s NextGenStats, which dwarfs the other running backs in the NFL. Taylor sees eight or more defenders in the box 29 percent of the time, which is among the league leaders, yet still continues to rack up the yards.
Starting the game off with a bang 💪 #HardKnocks | @JayT23 pic.twitter.com/XPJXixHWq3
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) December 30, 2021
Taylor has surpassed 100 rushing yards in six of the Colts’ past seven games, keeping responsibility away from Carson Wentz’s sometimes-erratic quarterback play.
Taylor has 467 more rushing yards than any other running back in the NFL, and the only real issue is the position he plays. Although Offensive Player of the Year is supposed to go to the best player on that side of the ball, some voters may still take into account positional value.
Running backs are often dependent on their offensive line paving the way, as there have been myriad examples of star rushers struggling and unknown running backs flourishing based on their surroundings.
Such volatility is reflected in salaries, as running back is one of the lowest-paid positions on a team. Taylor has been unquestionably excellent this season, but should he be trumped by the most prolific pass-catcher?
Cooper Kupp
When the topic of best wide receiver in the NFL comes up, the short list generally contains names like Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins and Tyreek Hill.
However, Kupp has raced past his more decorated brethren for the Rams, putting up a season for the ages. He has 132 catches for 1,734 yards and 14 touchdowns on the year, all of which lead the NFL.
Kupp is on pace to become the first wide receiver to win the Triple Crown since Steve Smith in 2005. He is also on pace to eclipse Calvin Johnson’s single-season record of 1,964 receiving yards, though Kupp gets the luxury of an extra game to do so.
Putting @CooperKupp season into perspective, no receiver in NFL history has had the total production he has had in 16 games let alone doing it in 15 games.
Most complete single season in WR history deserves MVP consideration https://t.co/BrjyRK3jMr
— Kevin Demoff (@kdemoff) December 29, 2021
There is an outside chance Kupp becomes the first wide receiver in history to accumulate 2,000 receiving yards in a season, which would be the type of glitzy showing that could sway a lot of voters in his direction.
Even if he doesn’t get there, Kupp has a tremendous case for Offensive Player of the Year. He is the only pass-catcher in the NFL averaging more than 100 receiving yards per game, and is doing it in an offense that is eighth in the NFL in pass attempts and completions.
If the Rams threw much more than everyone else, or if Kupp was the only reliable option through the air, his stats would be less impressive, but everything has been well-earned.
Robert Woods and Odell Beckham, Jr. have been other top-tier options in the passing game this year, but Kupp continues to produce week in and week out.
THE PREDICTION
Taylor has had some memorable moments on primetime television, most notably a long game-sealing touchdown run against the Patriots. However, when looking at the entire body of work, Kupp is the more deserving candidate.
He is currently compiling one of the most impressive wide receiver seasons in recent memory and will get serious fanfare if he breaks Johnson’s yardage record and then hits 2,000 this season.
Taylor has been talked about more the past few weeks, but when the stats are analyzed at the end of the year, expect Kupp to come out on top.
