Injury Doc: Kyler Murray ACL Return Timeline Dependent on Risk Tolerance of Quarterback, Team

There has been plenty of speculation about the recovery time for Kyler Murray, who had ACL surgery on January 3.

It will only get more incessant as the season gets closer, but a key piece to the discussion may have been previously missing.

The question may not necessarily be when Kyler Murray is physically able to return to the field this fall, but when he and the team decide it is prudent to put him back out there.

“It’s what can they do versus what should they do,” said Edwin Porras, Doctor of Physical Therapy and a medical analyst for FantasyPoints.com. “From a biological perspective, if you bring an individual back before nine months, it is approximately seven times more likely they tear their ACL again at some point. There is a time-sensitive perspective to it. The body needs time to adapt.

“Yes, they can gain momentum, and yes, they can come back before that nine-month mark, but it’s going to depend what the Cardinals need, what Kyler’s camp wants to see out of him, and how much risk they are willing to take on.”

The Cardinals are at an inflection point in their history, with new coach Jonathan Gannon and new general manager Monti Ossenfort now at the helm.

Jonathan Gannon to @peter_king:

“If Kyler Murray isn’t here, I don’t take this job.”

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) February 20, 2023

It’s unclear if they see 2023 as a complete rebuilding year, but that could come into focus over the next few months. If DeAndre Hopkins is traded for draft capital, it will likely signal a reboot, with an intent on 2024 competitiveness.

The Cardinals currently have the second-longest odds to win next year’s Super Bowl, and considering Murray’s skillset, Porras would err on the side of caution.

“Because he’s a rushing quarterback, because of what he needs to do from a physical perspective – if I was in the room and someone were to ask me for my general recommendation, (I would say) ‘This was a non-contact issue and he needs as much time as possible to familiarize the ligament with his body,’’’ Porras said. “I know it doesn’t always work like that in the NFL. Guys come back at crazy rates because winning is the priority.”

An MRI has confirmed that Kyler Murray has a torn ACL, per @Kyle_Odegard pic.twitter.com/yjrCtINNQx

— PFF (@PFF) December 13, 2022

The Cardinals aren’t that far removed from the 10-2 start in 2021, and if they pin last year’s horrific showing on a rash of injuries, they could try to improve as 2023 goes on and make a surprising run.

Murray’s cap hit is only $16 million this season before shooting up to $51.9 million in 2024, so from a team-building perspective, there is some rationale in pairing Hopkins up with Hollywood Brown and Rondale Moore, beefing up the offensive line and making a go of it.

That could push up the Murray timeline, with some caveats.

“If I were to say, ‘What are the conditions we would want Kyler back at eight-and-a-half or eight months?” Porras said. “I would say, ‘Well, yeah, let’s nix the designed runs. Kyler, let’s slide. But even then, we talk about ACL injuries, and it’s not uncommon for non-contact injuries to happen. Even if he’s just taking two or three steps back, that risk is still there. But I do think that in general, if they do bring him back early, I think the rushing attempts will probably fall off.”

Porras has researched the injury rate to pocket passers and mobile quarterbacks and has not seen a difference, so Murray would still be at risk if his style changed.

“I think the conception is that rushing quarterbacks are injured more frequently,” Porras said.

An eight-month recovery time would have Murray ready at the beginning of September. Nine months would have him on the field in early October, and 10 months would be closer to midseason.

Porras said we should “tread lightly” on any reports coming via the Cardinals, because they will be encouraging their preferred outcome. 

Even though some athletes never return to their prior form, Porras is pretty confident in Murray’s ability to bounce back.

“There is that small, miniscule chance that he’s never the same,” Porras said. “It’s possible, but given his age and the ultra-athlete he is, that’s not likely to happen.”

Murray shared a recent rehab clip on his Instagram, and it didn’t take long for internet sleuths to treat it like the Zapruder film, analyzing it six ways to Sunday.

Kyler Murray looking good just six weeks post-surgery.

📺: K1 Insta pic.twitter.com/qp6bZPUi0D

— Johnny Venerable (@JohnnyVenerable) February 14, 2023

Porras said it should be taken with a grain of salt, but he is confident in Murray’s trajectory because there have been no reports of setbacks.

“Clips are funny,” Porras said. “You can draw from them whatever you want. You can say, ‘He was putting some power on that bike. He was moving fast. He’s looking great. He might even be ahead of schedule.’ You can also say, ‘When he was doing those leg lifts over that hurdle, he had a pretty obvious quad lag. His knee wasn’t full extended. Is that a mobility issue, a quad activation issue, both?’ A 10-second clip doesn’t tell you a lot.

“I think he’s right on track. We haven’t heard of any type of infections. We haven’t heard of the need for follow-up procedures. We haven’t heard that he’s going to see James Andrews because the knee is not progressing. We haven’t heard any of that, and we can take that as a good sign. He’s moving the knee. He’s six weeks out. I think as a whole he’s right where he needs to be. And as for the chances of having a setback, he’s getting close to being out of the woods. When it comes to the early setbacks after a surgery, it seems he’s getting past those.”