The San Antonio Spurs always knew they would have to be patient when they signed Zach Collins to a three-year $75M contract this past summer. Not only had Collins undergone three surgeries in less than ten months to correct a stress fracture in his left ankle, but his previous injuries held him to just 11 games since the beginning of 2019-2020.
With seasons two and three of the deal partially and fully non-guaranteed, the Silver and Black took a calculated gamble on an oft-injured but gifted frontcourt prospect. Considering San Antonio desperately needed depth behind Jakob Poeltl, waiting for the former tenth overall pick of the 2017 Draft to recover and readjust to the NBA made sense, especially since he potentially offered floor spacing and defensive switchability.
After six months of continued physical rehabilitation and a two-week stint in the G League, Collins made his highly-anticipated season debut against the last-place Houston Rockets. And the 24-year-old center exploded out of the gates, overwhelming the worst defense in the league to the tune of ten points, seven rebounds, and three assists in 13 minutes.
Collins was better than advertised, working his way to the free-throw line, performing a gorgeous up-and-under move, nailing a pick-and-pop three-pointer, and facing up from the elbow. He also connected with teammates on a few nifty passes, deflected balls in the passing lanes, and battled for extra possessions on the glass. But perhaps he unintentionally set the bar impossibly high for what was to follow.
Since his spectacular opening act with the big league club, Collins has yet to score in double figures again, averaging 4.5 points and 4.7 rebounds on .450/.273/.786 shooting splits in his last 11 contests. Those numbers could admittedly be a lot worse, but the fifth-year big man hasn’t played well on either end of the court as of late. So, why is he in a rut? And should Spurs fans be concerned?
Before we explore the good and bad from Collins, it’s necessary to realize he hadn’t participated in a professional basketball game for one year, five months, and four days up until he started for the Austin Spurs on January 17. That’s an eternity spent away from the best league in the world, so we should temper expectations. Sure, Dejounte Murray took a few seasons to recuperate from a torn ACL before becoming an NBA All-Star, though that shouldn’t be the standard we hold Collins to.
Let’s return to our regularly scheduled programming and take a pragmatic look at what Collins does and doesn’t provide as a backup center, starting with his scoring.
One of the oddest opinions often presented as fact is the misconception that Collins is a sharpshooter. Although the 6-11 big man isn’t afraid to pull the trigger from beyond the arc, he has only sunk 32.5% of his 265 three-point attempts since entering the NBA, which is 3.3% below league average (35.8%) over that span.
| Zach Collins | Season |
| Pick-and-Roll | 9-of-17 (52.9%) |
| Post-Up | 4-of-8 (50.0%) |
| Putbacks | 3-of-9 (33.3%) |
| Cuts | 2-of-7 (28.6%) |
| Spot-Up | 3-of-6 (50.0%) |
| Transition | 1-of-1 (100%) |
| Total | 22-of-48 (45.8%) |
This season, Zach has stayed true to his standard, draining 33.3% of his long-range tries. He is 2-of-7 (28.6%) on pick-and-pop opportunities and 2-of-5 (40%) on spot-up attempts. The accuracy isn’t great, the volume is low, but his willingness to fire away ensures defenders seldom desert him on the perimeter, clearing driving lanes for the rest of the team.
As for the rest of his scoring repertoire, things don’t improve much as he moves closer to the basket. Collins has shot 29% from midrange, 41.6% in the paint, and 59.1% at the rim for his career. Those marks place 11.6%, 1%, and 5.7% below league average from each respective zone. As seen in the table above, the Gonzaga product has made headway, but a small sample size makes it inadvisable to read too much into these strides quite yet.
| Zach Collins | 2017-2018 | 2018-2019 | 2019-2020 | 2020-2021 | 2021-2022 | Career |
| Restricted Area | 50-of-88 (56.9%) | 117-of-187 (62.6%) | 20-of-33 (60.6%) | INJURED | 12-of-23 (52.2%) | 199-of-331 (59.1%) |
| Paint | 15-of-37 (40.5%) | 22-of-48 (45.8%) | 2-of-9 (22.2%) | INJURED | 3-of-7 (42.9%) | 42-of-101 (41.6%) |
| Midrange | 15-of-51 (29.4%) | 10-of-44 (22.7%) | 3-of-7 (42.9%) | INJURED | 3-of-5 (60.0%) | 31-of-107 (29.0%) |
| Left Corner | 6-of-15 (40.0%) | 3-of-7 (42.9%) | 0-of-3 (0.0%) | INJURED | 1-of-1 (100%) | 10-of-26 (38.5%) |
| Right Corner | 7-of-18 (38.9%) | 0-of-4 (0.0%) | 1-of-3 (33.3%) | INJURED | 0-of-1 (0.0%) | 8-of-26 (30.8%) |
| Above the Break | 22-of-79 (27.8%) | 37-of-110 (33.6%) | 6-of-13 (46.2%) | INJURED | 3-of-11 (27.3%) | 68-of-213 (31.9%) |
Poor finishing inside the restricted area is undoubtedly the most alarming weakness for the near-seven-footer. Collins doesn’t possess the strength, length, or lift to finish over or through most centers. So, he relies on head, shoulder, and ball fakes to tempt defenders into leaving their feet. If they do, he is adept at getting to the charity stripe. When they don’t, Zach can sometimes force the issue. Failing to convert attempts at the rim caps his value as a play finisher, and it’s one of the reasons he ranks in the 58.5th percentile as a roll-man this season.
Despite his shortcomings as a scorer, Collins has shown phenomenal feel as a facilitator. He routinely finds cutters from the block, elbow, and top of the key with pinpoint precision. Zach thrives on carving out space for his teammates on dribble-handoffs and routinely hits shooters from one pass away. His playmaking isn’t always loud, but he can be a connecting piece that keeps the rock moving for a steady offense.
With that said, Collins can get too ambitious with his backdoor feeds and entry lobs. He can also be overly aggressive when setting screens. These miscues have resulted in about a fifth of his offensive possessions ending in turnovers (20 TO). Though his eagerness and confidence are more than welcome, Zach must cut down on ill-advised errors as he becomes more acclimated to his surroundings.
Fouling is another problem that has surfaced early into his tenure with the Silver and Black. Collins is committing 5.3 fouls per 36 minutes, and about a fifth of his defensive possessions have ended in a foul. Worse yet, 18 of his 27 fouls have been shooting fouls. Reaching, swiping, falling for fakes, late help, and undercutting isn’t what you expect from a cerebral player, but that’s what San Antonio is getting at the moment.
Combined with minimal event creation and subpar defense, Collins hasn’t lived up to the billing of a versatile stopper. His 51.3% defensive field goal ranks 387th out of the 412 players that have contested at least 100 shots this season. And while he has held frontcourt players to 31-of-70 (44.3%) from the field, the backcourt is a different story as guards and wings have shot a combined 30-of-49 (61.2%) against him.
| Zach Collins | Defensive FG% | Shooting Fouls |
| PG | 10-of-15 (66.7%) | 2 |
| SG | 9-of-16 (56.3%) | 2 |
| SF | 11-of-18 (61.1%) | 6 |
| PF | 11-of-25 (44.0%) | 2 |
| C | 20-of-45 (44.4%) | 6 |
Defensive switchability and floor spacing were two of the most significant selling points for Zach Collins. They haven’t materialized in year one, and that’s perfectly acceptable.
I don’t want you departing this article feeling like San Antonio’s marquee free agency signing can’t be valuable to what they are doing long term. That would be incredibly unfair to a player who has worked tirelessly to get back to the sport he loves.
Maybe all Collins needs is more time to play his way into peak shape and more reps to slow the game down, and the Spurs should be willing to give him all the minutes he can handle in the second unit for the remainder of the season. In the same breath, general manager Brian Wright shouldn’t pause if he believes he can upgrade this team through free agency or the draft. More talent drives internal competition, and internal competition is a catalyst for development.
