Four Prop Bet Picks For Diamondbacks-Rangers World Series Game 5

The Texas Rangers, the oldest MLB franchise to never win a championship, are one win away from their first title after beating the Arizona Diamondbacks 11-7 in Game 4 of the World Series on Tuesday night.

But it’s hard to blame Rangers or their fans if no one is planning a parade or clearing space in the closet for all the keepsake championship T-shirts — nor to blame the Diamondbacks or their fans if they’re channeling their inner Kevin Millar:

“Don’t let us win this game tonight.”

"Don't let us win tonight"

Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown channel their inner Kevin Millar ahead of tonight's must-win Game 4 pic.twitter.com/du9Qykvw7X

— Celtics on NBC Sports Boston (@NBCSCeltics) May 23, 2023

The Rangers’ 63-year history includes perhaps the most agonizing championship near-miss this side of the 1986 Boston Red Sox. Texas was one strike away from ending its title drought in both the ninth and 10th innings of Game 6 of the 2011 World Series before the St. Louis Cardinals mounted comebacks in a 10-9 win. The Cardinals won Game 7 the next night, 6-2.

More importantly for the current iteration of the Rangers, they are running out of players and pitchers.

Hard-hitting Adolis Garcia, the MVP of the American League Championship Series, was removed from the roster prior to Game 4 due to an oblique injury along with Hall of Fame-bound pitcher Max Scherzer, who suffered a back injury while pitching Game 3. Scherzer was lined up to start a potential Game 7, which if the series goes the distance, the Rangers might have to turn to…Kenny Rogers? Roger Pavlik? Bobby Witt Sr? Charlie Hough?

The Rangers’ flammable bullpen turned what could have been one of the biggest routs in World Series history last night — they were up 10-0 after three innings and 11-1 with six outs left — into enough of a nail-biter that Bruce Bochy asked closer Jose Leclerc to get the last out.

The Diamondbacks’ brief World Series history includes one of the most memorable comebacks of all-time in 2001, when Arizona fell behind three games to two by losing games four and five in New York in dramatic fashion before rolling to a lopsided victory in Game 6 and ending the Yankees’ dynasty with a two-run walk-off rally against Mariano Rivera in Game 7.

11/1/2001: Scott Brosius tied up #WorldSeries Game 5 with a ninth-inning home run, which set up another dramatic win for the #Yankees. #RepBX (via MLB) @Yankeethrowback @pinstripealley pic.twitter.com/zPM7XBXBmm

— MLB Daily Dingers (@MLBDailyDingers) November 1, 2023

These Diamondbacks, of course, are no stranger to the comeback after recovering from a 7-25 slide to make the playoffs and after advancing to the World Series by beating the Philadelphia Phillies on the road in Games 6 and 7 of the NLCS.

So even though history is on the side of the Rangers — baseball teams ahead three games to one in a postseason series have won the round 85 percent of the time — tonight feels like a chance for the Diamondbacks to not just keep their season alive but grab back momentum.

In all best-of-seven postseason series, teams holding a 3-1 edge have gone on to win the series 78 of 92 times (85%) https://t.co/jC2K5dLuZH

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) November 1, 2023

Here’s a look at four Game 5 prop bets as Texas looks to end an epic drought and Arizona attempts one more momentous comeback. 

All odds as of this afternoon from DraftKings.

Nathan Eovaldi (-110) and Zac Gallen (-135) Under 15.5 Outs Recorded

There doesn’t see to be a way to parlay this, but these are two interesting prop bets in a surprisingly unprecedented pitching matchup. This is the first time ever two pitchers each making their sixth start of the postseason are opposing one another.

Playoff starts are of course much more intense and draining than regular season starts, so it’s anyone’s guess how much gas Eovaldi and Gallen have left the day after Halloween. Eovaldi, who missed six weeks in late summer with a forearm strain, was impressive in the playoffs until he gave up five runs over 4 2/3 innings in Game 1. The tank has appeared nearly empty for Gallen, who has a 5.27 ERA in the playoffs after throwing 210 regular season innings, second-most in the majors.

Neither bullpen is well-rested, but Bochy and Torey Lovullo have some flexibility after Rangers relievers prior to Leclerc combined to throw just 76 (mostly ineffective) pitches and after Ryne Nelson mopped up with 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball. With a chance to end and extend their seasons, expect Bochy and Lovullo to be aggressive at the first sign of trouble for their starters.

Ketel Marte over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-140)

The sun will rise, we’ll have lunch and Ketel Marte will get a hit in a playoff game. Marte extended a pair of record hitting streaks Tuesday night, when he went 2-for-5 as the Diamondbacks’ leadoff hitter.

He’s now got a hit in all 16 games this postseason, snapping a tie with the Kansas City Royals’ Alcides Escobar for the longes hitting streak during a single postseason, and a hit in all 20 playoff games he’s played, which leaves the previous record-holders — Hank Bauer, Derek Jeter and Manny Ramirez, all of whom had 17-game streaks — further in the rearview mirror.

Ketel Marte has a 20-game hitting streak, extending the longest in postseason history

he's at 16 this year, passing 2015 Alcides Escobar at 15 for the longest single-postseason hitting streak

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) November 1, 2023

Marte was one of the few Diamondbacks who didn’t contribute to the six-run rally in the eighth and ninth inning Tuesday, when he flew out leading off the eighth and whiffed for the first out of the ninth. He’ll make up for lost time tonight and factor into at least one Arizona run-scoring rally.

Corbin Carroll over 0.5 stolen bases (+310)

John Smoltz absorbs plenty of criticism because he’s not married to analytics, but the Hall of Fame has a feel for the pulse of players like few others. And when Carroll — who hadn’t hit the ball out of the infield since Game 2 — delivered a one-out single with the Diamondbacks down 11-1 in the eighth last night, Smoltz noted that such a seemingly innocuous hit in a blowout can make a player feel good and provide a springboard for the rest of the series. 

Carroll struck out for the second out in the ninth. But the likely NL Rookie of the Year showed his resiliency in Game 7 of the NLCS, when he went 3-for-4 with two runs scored after going 4-for-28 with two runs scored in the preceding eight games.

He’s also shown a knack for stealing bases in bunches. Carroll swiped one bag apiece in Games 2 and 3 of the NL Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers but didn’t attempt another steal until he collected two thefts in Game 7 of the NLCS. No reason to wait until tomorrow (or Friday) for Carroll tonight. If he gets on, he’s running.