Football Outsiders Likes Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Chargers To Win Their Divisions

The Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers each lost their superstar receiver this offseason.

Do the departures of Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams make them vulnerable? Football Outsiders thinks so.

Despite the presence of star quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, the Chiefs and Packers are not favored to win their divisions in 2022, according to the analytics site’s projection model.

Kansas City has won the AFC West every year since 2016, while the Packers have captured the NFC North three years in a row and eight of the past 11.

The Minnesota Vikings are projected to win 9.5 games this season, compared to 9.3 for Green Bay, in the Football Outsiders preseason almanac.

Minnesota’s superiority even surprised Football Outsiders Editor-in-Chief Aaron Schatz, but he said there are reasons for it.

“The Packers have outperformed their underlying statistics significantly the past three years,” Schatz said. “Especially last year and in 2019. Not as much in 2020. They just haven’t played like a 13-win team. So it’s likely that they’re not going to be one again. And then you lose Davante Adams, and that’s a big deal. And people are expecting a lot from their defense, but their defense hasn’t been a top-10 defense for years and years. So to expect that out of them seems unlikely to me.”

The Packers are the -165 favorites to win the NFC North, per BetMGM, with the Vikings at +260. While it wouldn’t be a huge upset, the oddsmakers still have the Packers comfortably ahead.

Green Bay has the back-to-back MVP at quarterback, and while clutch doesn’t exist, I asked Schatz if Rodgers’ presence is more valuable to the Packers than the analytics will allow. 

“I think eventually you come back to what point-differential and those things say you are,” Schatz said. “Yeah, it helps to have the best quarterback, absolutely. Kansas City has outperformed based on point-differential the past couple of years, but not anywhere near the extent that Green Bay has.”

Minnesota, meanwhile, could be in line to surprise.

“We were surprised that our system loved the Vikings so much this year,” Schatz said. “Their defense comes out about where it’s been the last couple of years, about average. Their offense comes out higher. Kirk Cousins is consistently around the eighth- to tenth-best quarterback in the league from a statistical perspective. And I know scouting people don’t think he’s that good, but from a statistical production perspective, he consistently comes out about that good. Their offense as a whole is going to come out about that good, and they have an easier schedule than the Packers.”

The Chiefs are the +155 favorites in the AFC West, though the loaded division has plenty of contenders. The Chargers are listed at +230, followed by the Broncos at +260 and the Raiders at +650.

At Football Outsiders, the Chargers are the clear team to beat. They are No. 3 in Total DVOA, followed by Kansas City (8), Denver (12) and Las Vegas (15).

Los Angeles is projected to win 9.8 games this season, nearly a full win more than the Chiefs.

“I do like the Chargers this year, a lot, and I do like their chances in the AFC West,” Schatz said. “The fact is, the Chiefs losing all those guys matters. I know we want to believe because Mahomes is so good — and we still have them with the No. 2 projected offense because Mahomes is really good — but it’s not projected as high as it has been the last couple of years because they lost a lot of guys, especially Tyreek Hill.”

The oddsmakers see the AFC South as a two-team race. The Colts are the -120 favorites and the Titans have the second-best odds at +250.

Football Outsiders, though, predicts a four-team rumble.

Indy, Tennessee and Houston are all projected to win 7.9 games in 2022, while Jacksonville isn’t far behind at 7.6 wins. All are given between a 37.0 and 32.5% chance to make the playoffs.

“That’s how our numbers have it,” Schatz said. “We don’t think Indy is as good as Vegas does. The Titans weren’t as good as their record last year. Jacksonville is interesting because I can make a very strong subjective — not numbers-based, but subjective — case for them. If Urban Meyer really was the worst coach in history, aren’t they going to be much better once they have a real coach?”

And while many think the Texans could be the worst team in the league this season, Schatz gives them a puncher’s chance.

“They keep adding guys that don’t suck,” Schatz said. “They’re built to be blah, but not terrible.”