DraftKings’ Johnny Avello Explains the Odds Movement Surrounding Kevin Durant’s Next Team

If and when the Brooklyn Nets trade Kevin Durant, the reverberations will be felt throughout the NBA. 

They will also be felt at DraftKings, which is one of the few sportsbooks that have made his next destination available as a wager.

The Phoenix Suns have been the favorite from the start, but even so, their odds have swung wildly. Phoenix was listed at +200 to land Durant when the wager opened last Thursday. It was bet heavily, and the Suns moved to a -250 favorite to land Durant later that day.

Approximately a week later, Durant sits at +110 to end up in Phoenix. Remaining with the Nets has the second-best odds at +250, followed by a trade to former longshot Toronto at +400.

There could still be several twists and turns to come, so Compare.bet caught up with Johnny Avello, the Director of Race and Sportsbook Operations at DraftKings, to talk about how the odds are determined and what the shifts mean.

Compare.bet: When it comes to a player’s Next Team odds, how does DraftKings determine those lines originally?

Johnny Avello: We do a little bit of research on what the player is thinking or saying, maybe what some of the basketball experts are saying. Then we compile that information and that’s how we come up with where we think he may be going, from most popular to one that is maybe sixth or seventh on his list. And then we associate the odds with how strong the possibilities are of him going to those places.

CB: In Kevin Durant’s case, looking at it from a Suns perspective, he did start as the favorite but at +200. And then the odds got more likely, getting down to -250 that same day. What drives that type of movement, when you see a big shift in a few hours?

JA: Well, he has expressed where he’d like to go, and the Suns and the Heat are two places he said he’d prefer to be. So when he says that, the bettors react, and as they react and bet, we react and move the line.

CB: So basically there wasn’t news in that case. It was the bettors putting a lot of money on Phoenix and you guys adjusting accordingly?

JA: Yeah, because I think the news was already out. It’s been mostly betting and movement from the betting.

CB: For casual bettors and fans to better understand, why does the line move when people are betting heavily on Phoenix?

JA: There are a couple of reasons. We move it so that we can attract money on something else. If the odds are a little bit lower on something that’s getting a lot of play, if we lower that and raise other options, the bettors will look at other options and play on those other options. That gives us more of a balance. If we keep the number at one number and we keep getting hit at it, obviously we are taking bets at a number that may be too favorable to the bettor. The movement is always about adjusting your action based on the money that’s coming in.

CB: So despite the fact that Durant’s odds to land with the Suns went from +200 to -250, that doesn’t necessarily reflect that his odds of going to Phoenix were better? It’s more about DraftKings thinking of it as a liability if he does?

JA: I think it’s both. We open up at a number where we think he might go, and then it gets bet by the bettors. So therefore we lower the odds and then it becomes the favorite. I think it’s a combination of us thinking that’s the most logical choice, and the bettors agreeing with that choice. It’s a combination of the two. In the Phoenix Suns’ case, it looks like Deandre Ayton is going to be moving on, so (Durant) fits the situation even more. Without Ayton they need to add a piece. It may not be Kevin Durant, but at this point, since that’s one of the places he’s suggested he’s going, it seems like it’s got to be one of the top two.

CB: Toronto was a longshot, and then Adrian Wojnarowski started saying things about Toronto. Can it be a mad dash for DraftKings to switch its odds when news breaks? What is that process like, knowing people may jump on it quickly?

JA: We have to react quickly. The trader team has to stay on top of this, not daily but by the minute. We always have different websites opened up to find out if there’s any new news out there. You need to stay on top of that and make sure you don’t get caught sleeping.

CB: There aren’t a lot of sportsbooks that offer Next Team odds. Is it riskier for an operator? Why do you do it when not everybody does?

JA: It is risky, but we’re known for doing things like this. We do it on not only NBA players, but where the next quarterback is going. It’s usually surrounding a big name. It’s not like we do it with a smaller-market guy. It’s always with a huge name. It was done quite a bit in football. It was done with (Deshaun) Watson. It’s something we’re known for doing and we’ll continue to keep doing it.

CB: When the Durant trade request news came out, you pulled your NBA championship futures off the board and put them back up with different odds. Can you take me behind-the-scenes with how that goes? Is there a conversation to figure out how this news affects the odds?

JA: The first thing the traders are instructed to do is that any time there is any type of big news, take down that team and maybe more teams. Maybe the whole division comes down. You don’t usually take down the whole conference or to win it all. After you do that, the team consults each other. We have a basketball team where guys just concentrate on basketball, and they re-evaluate the teams and puts it back up. Even though we may not know the exact news, what we do is put them back up with a price that you could take either way. Not as high as they would’ve been if they acquire somebody, but it’s not a price where they’ve already got them. It’s more in the middle of those two.

CB: A lot of people think sportsbooks know things the public doesn’t, or people do and bet it, which you respond to. How accurate is that? I’m thinking of Paolo Banchero, in particular, who was projected to go No. 3 for a long time, and then his odds to go No. 1 really shot up and he eventually did go No. 1.

JA: In Banchero’s case, they were right. The information that’s out there, whether it’s an NBA draft or an NFL draft, a lot of that information is pretty good, especially when it’s close to draft day. We respect that and we move fast. Anything that’s information-based is difficult for bookmakers. When it’s put out on the field, we make a number based on the power rating of teams, and the event takes place on the field or the court. When it’s information-based and somebody knows that or could know it, or has a good source, we have to react on that and move quickly. Sometimes the information is out there for somebody before we get it.

CB: With the volatility of those wagers, is it more stressful than the standard on-the-field wagers?

JA: It’s riskier, but we do win some of these bets, too. It’s not like we lose them all. Sometimes people think they have the information and it’s wrong. And our customers expect it. When we offer the full menu like we do, it’s why our customer base is loyal to us, because we have all these different offerings.

CB: Is it good exposure, too? If people are talking about Kevin Durant’s next team, and they are only able to cite DraftKings if that’s the only sportsbook with the odds, that has to be a bonus, right?

JA: Well you’re talking about it, so I guess it does work.