Doc Talk: Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott and Other Injury Histories That Shouldn’t Be Feared

Edwin Porras cannot perfectly project who will get hurt and who will remain healthy in the 2022 NFL regular season.

If he could, the Doctor of Physical Therapy and medical analyst for FantasyPoints.com would win enough sports bets in a year to buy his own island.

But he does crunch the data, knows plenty about injuries, and looks at trends.

“Injury prediction is impossible, but there is definitely data in a pragmatic way to follow,” Porras said. “Don’t just blanket apply optimism or skepticism. Educate yourself, because there is 100% an edge to following this injury stuff closely.”

“Do injuries zap a RBs ‘explosiveness?’”

Maybe if its:
*ACL year 1
*Achilles
*Lisfranc year 1
*Meniscus year 1
*Ankle/syndesmosis year 1
*High ankle in-season

Even then, young world-class athletes/NFL talents tend to overcome injuries 80% of the time. Stop worrying so much

— Edwin Porras, DPT (@FBInjuryDoc) July 26, 2022

First and foremost, Porras points out that football is a dangerous game where “the anomaly is being healthy,” so the best-laid plans can always go up in smoke. With that caveat in place, Porras shared with me five players whose injury histories won’t scare him off in 2022.

Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott

Rushing yardage total: 875.5 (Over -115; Under -115)
Rushing touchdowns: 8.5 (Over -115; Under -115)
Most rushing yards in NFL: +3000
Games missed the past two years: 1

Porras: “He’s getting a bad rap. He played through a torn PCL. The guy had a complete clean bill of health his entire career, essentially, until 2020 when he started having some injury stuff. But honestly, it can be explained away. People are arguing over, is Zeke washed? I look at the bigger picture of Zeke’s age, he still looks good, he’s still playing well when he’s not injured. Ezekiel Elliott being “washed” is a complete narrative and conjecture, and I believe, incorrect. I think he’s going to play every game, or miss a game or two like every other average running back. But I’m lukewarm on that backfield, because that situation comes down to coaching and scheme, and what they want to do with (Elliott and Tony Pollard).”

Giants RB Saquon Barkley

Rushing yardage total: 900.5 (Over -120; Under -110)
Rushing touchdowns: 7.5 (Over -115; Under -115)
Most rushing yards in NFL: +4000
Games missed the past two years: 17

Porras: “Saquon is definitely one of the (players I believe in). Moral of the story: He was going to smash last year (despite a 2020 ACL injury) and he just got super unlucky and stepped on another dude’s foot. Lo and behold, he was down basically the rest of the season. But those are the guys that just have really bad injury luck. He’s a guy I really like this year, though.”

Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey

Rushing yardage total: 900.5 (Under -120; Over -110)
Rushing touchdowns total: 8.5 (Under -130; Over +100)
Rushing + receiving yardage total: 1,595.5 (Over -115; Under -115)
Most rushing yards in NFL: +3500
Comeback Player of the Year: +750
Games missed the past two years: 23

Porras: “This is the hardest one because I can’t be 100% certain. I don’t know what’s going on. If you consider the fact that, from college to 2019, he missed one game. He handled three NFL seasons worth of work, and they haven’t been tepid about giving him the ball. 

“In 2020 the primary issues were the high ankle sprain and the AC joint sprain. Those were the primary ones. The way I would explain those away is that ankle sprains and AC sprains are two of the top three injuries that running backs sustain in the NFL. He just happened to have both in the same year. He got unlucky. And in 2021 he had a hamstring strain, the third most-common injury among running backs. It’s not like these are randomly assorted, but they match up with what his positional demands require of him, and they don’t necessarily re-occur, especially the shoulder and the ankle. What you see with hamstrings is about a 5% reoccurrence every year, but that’s low. A lot of these guys have had hamstring strains and ended up being just fine. 

“It’s a long-winded way of climbing yourself out of being down on Christian McCaffrey, at least from my perspective. He just had this regression where he was abnormally healthy and then they all hit at the same time.”

Saints QB Jameis Winston

Passing yardage total: 3,750.5 yards (Over -110; Under -110)
Passing touchdowns total: 26.5 (Over -110; Under -110)
Comeback Player of the Year: +500
Games missed the past two years: 10

Porras: “All the data that shows ACLs are bad — like, ACL, first year back, bad — that’s true. That’s not just a narrative. So generally speaking ACLs are bad across the board, except for quarterbacks. There have been large-scale studies showing that ACL injuries do not alter the performance of a quarterback, even in the first year after. I think a good example to look at is Joe Burrow, who basically had his knee explode. It might’ve been a career-ending injury 20 years ago, but he came back the next year and led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. So I think for Jameis Winston, probably not a big deal.”

Saints WR Michael Thomas

Comeback Player of the Year: +800
Offensive Player of the Year: +6000
Games missed the past two years: 26

#Saints WR Michael Thomas was back on the field today running routes and catching passes. He's officially off the PUP list.

A big day in New Orleans.pic.twitter.com/3t8T4cB2CR

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) July 27, 2022

Porras: “That’s kind of a complicated case (after missing all of 2021 following ankle surgery), but I do think he can provide some value at the right price. I’m not saying he’s a good safe bet whatsoever, but I think if you’re looking at some value that others might be looking at, maybe betting on a line or two, might be Michael Thomas. I think he will be better than not.”