Doc Talk: James Conner, Dalvin Cook and Other Injury Histories That Could Be Problematic

On Wednesday, Doctor of Physical Therapy Edwin Porras shared five players with injury histories that don’t concern him.

Today we take a look at four players with track records that give him pause. 

While injuries are impossible to predict, this can be a helpful betting guide heading into the 2022 NFL season.

Cardinals RB James Conner

Rushing yardage total: 825.5 (Over -115; Under -115)
Rushing touchdowns: 9.5 (Under -120; Over -110)
Most rushing yards in NFL: +6000
Offensive Player of the Year: +8000
Games missed the past two years: 5

Porras: “He tore his MCL in college and he completely tore it to the point where he needed surgery. And you don’t see that. That’s in like 5% of cases. Then he went on and had a high-ankle sprain, which is another connective tissue injury. Then he had an AC joint sprain, another connective tissue injury. He’s had a connective tissue injury in five of the last seven years. That’s somebody who worries me the most.

“Here’s the catch: I was totally off James Conner last year because of these patterns, because he couldn’t stay on the field, and lo and behold he played 15 games last year. So none of this is a perfect science, but it’s where I’m coming from in how I view these guys.

“You can bet (over) on a James Conner rushing prop, but I’m 100% not a guy who is going to say, ‘Oh, yeah, he will beat that rushing prop.’ Especially knowing that once he gets over 48% of (backfield) touches, he tends to miss more games, just based on his data. I try to look at the data from a thousand-foot view. The big-picture takeaway is that James Conner hasn’t been healthy, and there’s a chance that last year was the anomaly.”

Vikings RB Dalvin Cook

Rushing yardage total: 1,150.5 (Over -115; Under -115)
Rushing touchdowns: 9.5 (Under -130; Over +100)
Most rushing yards in NFL: +1000
Offensive Player of the Year: +3000
Games missed the past two years: 6

Porras: “Dalvin Cook continuously has these shoulder dislocations. Long story short, the shoulder sits in the socket like a golf ball on a tee. The bone itself is bigger than the joint and what holds it together is some tissue in between the joint called the labrum. Every time he dislocates his shoulder — and he’s had five at this point in his career, since high school — his labrum is further damaged, and he’s probably getting some bone damage. Every time he does that, it’s not less likely it will happen again. 

“Even if you have surgery for this, your redislocation rate is still 27%. Dalvin Cook had surgery, and then he redislocated it in 2019 and again last year. Last year he only took one week off and then smashed, but the problem is that at any point, a surgeon could look at the MRI and Dalvin Cook could say, ‘At this point it’s dislocating when I roll over in bed.’ A lot of athletes get to that point. So that’s very much a possibility. 

“I’m not saying that is what’s happening, but the floor is, Dalvin Cook dislocates and he’s out for the season. Alexander Mattison takes over. That’s the floor for Dalvin Cook, and it’s not necessarily an unlikely floor.”

Titans RB Derrick Henry

Rushing yardage total: 1,350.5 (Over -115; Under -115)
Rushing touchdowns: 13.5 (Over -115; Under -115)
Most rushing yards in NFL: +650
Offensive Player of the Year: +1400
Games missed the past two years: 9

Porras: “Derrick Henry is a contentious one, and it’s complicated. Derrick Henry is a massive human, obviously, and you worry about those guys when they are on the extreme end of the spectrum when it comes to size. (Last year’s foot injury) was a stress reaction from everything we know, and what a stress reaction essentially means is it was pounded and pounded and pounded until it just broke. That very much would add up with his entire profile.

“The (outsized number of) carries will definitely go into it in this specific case, but it’s not the only reason. It’s just a matter of him being that big, carrying that weight and playing the position he does. I do think the workload played a factor. 

“And in terms of his efficiency, it’s been dropping for the past three years. So I think the Titans will want to feed him, and I think the Titans will feed him, but even if he doesn’t re-injure (the foot), I just don’t know how that body and that frame is going to hold up anymore, especially after the foot. We’ve never seen a dude of his caliber. 

“That’s what makes these things difficult to identify. When they’re anomalies already, how much longer can they continue to be anomalies? But from a betting perspective, I’m not going to bet on Derrick Henry this year.”

Buccaneers WR Julio Jones

Receiving yardage total: 550.5 (Over -115; Under -115)
Receiving touchdowns: 4.5 (Over -115; Under -115)
Most receiving yards in NFL: +10000
Games missed the past two years: 14

Jason Licht said Julio Jones looked “damn good” today. The Bucs are feeling really good about bringing Jones in.

— Scott Smith (@ScottSBucs) July 28, 2022

Porras: “The older you are, the more likely you are to recur a hamstring injury. Julio Jones is 33 at this point. He’s had a big hamstring injury. At this point, he obviously is where he is at in his career. It’s not to say he can’t rehab and come back. It’s not to say that he won’t. But we know that age and previous hamstring strains are major risk factors for a future hamstring strain.”