Our resident NCAAF experts Sam and Matt preview six of this weekend’s big matchups and give their betting tips, focusing on Clemson at Wake Forest, Florida at Tennessee, Texas at Texas Tech, Arkansas at Texas A&M, Wisconsin at Ohio State and USC at Oregon State.
CFB Week 4 Betting Preview: Tips, Odds & Lines Including Florida @ Tennessee and Clemson @ Wake Forest
September 23, 2022
Overall Records
Sam Overall: 27-1-28 0.491
Moneyline: 12-6
Spread: 9-9
Over/Under: 5-1-10
Matt Overall: 14-4 0.778
No. 5 Clemson @ No. 21 Wake Forest
Saturday 24th September – 12 PM EST
Sam’s Picks
Moneyline: Clemson
Spread: Clemson to Cover
Over/Under: Under 56.5
Matt’s Pick of the game:
Wake Forest to Cover
Clemson’s 3-0 record and 41.3 points per game looks good on paper, but some context is required. They’ve had a cupcake schedule of Georgia Tech, Furman and Louisana Tech so far, and quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has looked unspectacular in all three. A lot of their points have come from short fields, and a talented offense such as Wake’s led by Sam Hartman could cause Clemson some issues. I had half a mind to go for the Demon Deacons moneyline here, but am just sticking with them covering the spread.
No. 20 Florida @ No. 11 Tennessee
Saturday 24th September – 3:30 PM EST
Sam’s Picks
Moneyline: Tennessee
Spread: Florida to cover
Over/Under: Over 62.5
Matt’s Pick of the Game
Florida to Cover
Josh Heupel’s Volunteers have looked sensational as they have cruised to a 3-0 start (3-0 against the spread) and look like they could be Georgia’s closest rivals for the SEC East title. Florida on the other hand is a team in the early stages of a rebuild under Billy Napier and struggled to get going in their past two games against Kentucky and USF. That said, this spread is the largest it’s been in over 30 years for this game, and SEC rivalry games can be a slugfest. I expect the Vols to take the W, but Florida to run them close enough to cover.
No. 22 Texas @ Texas Tech
Saturday 24th September – 3:30 PM EST
Sam’s Picks
Moneyline: Texas
Spread: Texas to cover
Over/Under: Over 59.5
Matt’s Pick of the Game
Over 59.5 Points
This looks like it will be a battle of two teams that are loaded on the offensive side of the ball. In Xavier Worthy, Jordan Whittington, and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas have three exciting receiving talents with big play upside, but it is Bijan Robinson that this Longhorn offense runs through. The future first-rounder has looked as good as we all expected him to so far this season, and he could be in line for a big day against Texas Tech’s defensive front. The Red Raiders have some fun players on offense themselves, led by sophomore QB Donovan Smith, who has shown flashes of brilliance. I can see a good old-fashioned Big 12 points fest happening down in Lubbock.
No. 10 Arkansas @ No. 23 Texas A&M
Saturday 24th September – 7:30 PM EST
Sam’s Picks
Moneyline: Arkansas
Spread: Arkansas to cover
Over/Under: Under 48.5
Matt’s Pick of the Game
Arkansas Moneyline
Last week I said I was shocked to see A&M favoured against Miami after their shock loss to App State the week before, and took Miami to win outright. I’ll admit they proved me wrong, but this week I’m doubling down and picking their opponents to win as underdogs once again. Arkansas struggled mightily against FCS Missouri State at home last week and had to overturn a 17-0 deficit, and then a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to scrape by the FCS team. Sam Pittman will have lit a fire in his Razorbacks team this week, and I just don’t trust Texas A&M’s offense while it has Max Johnson at QB and Jimbo Fisher calling the plays.
Wisconsin @ No. 3 Ohio State
Saturday 24th September – 7:30 PM EST
Sam’s Picks
Moneyline: Ohio State
Spread: Ohio State to cover
Over/Under: Under 57
Matt’s Pick of the Game
Ohio State to Cover
I don’t think it’s a hugely controversial take calling this Ohio State offense the best in the nation. They racked up 77 points against Toledo last week, with three receivers going over 100 yards. While Wisconsin themselves managed to get a boatload of points last week too, a dominant Buckeye performance in The Shoe looks pretty likely here. The only real test this Badgers team has faced this season was against Washington State, and they failed. While I like Wazzu, they aren’t Ohio State.
No. 7 USC @ Oregon State
Saturday 24th September – 9:00 PM EST
Sam’s Picks
Moneyline: USC
Spread: USC to cover
Over/Under: Over 70
Matt’s Pick of the Game
Over 70 Points
That’s right. Despite the Over being eye-wateringly high for this game, I’m taking it. This feels like one of those lines where Vegas is begging you to take the Under, and I’m not having it. This USC offense under Lincoln Riley with Heisman front-runner Caleb Williams under center has been spectacular through three games, averaging over 50 points a game. The Trojan defense has been average at best, and has struggled against the run, something which this Beavers offense does very well. Oregon State’s offense has looked pretty incredible in its own right in their first three games, and I’m expecting a classic late-night PAC 12 shootout.
