College Football Week 11 Preview: Betting Odds & Best Bets Including Washington at Oregon and TCU at Texas
No.7 LSU at Arkansas Odds and Picks
Saturday 12th November – 12pm EST
Game Lines:
Moneyline: LSU -180 | Arkansas +152
Spread: LSU -3.5
Points Total: 62 | Over -110 | Under -110
Sam’s Picks
Moneyline: LSU
Spread: LSU to cover
Over/Under: Under 62
Last week was definitely my greatest pick of the season. Whilst the pick was 99% heart and 1% logic, the heart won out and LSU knocked off Alabama in Death Valley. The Tigers still have a way into the playoff if they run the table and beat Georgia in the SEC Championship. But let’s take it one game at a time. Arkansas has the prime makings of a trap game, with the QB position still in doubt and coming off a tough loss. It seems the spread is accounting for that, with LSU only favored by 3.5 despite last Saturday’s emotional win. The Tigers will have to be at the top of their game, but Brian Kelly will be more aware than anyone of how dangerous the Battle for the Boot could be, and I expect the Tigers to be alert from the off and not let last week’s win go to waste.
Matt’s Pick of the game:
This game has all the makings of a trap game for an LSU team that just had a historic win over Alabama. The 11 am kick-off local time and KJ Jefferson’s questionable injury designation make me lean towards LSU -3.5, but I’m more comfortable taking the under. LSU has been slow starters all season on offense and their defense is playing some excellent ball with BJ Ojulari and Harold Perkins both playing at an All-American level. I can’t see there being more than 60 points.
Points Total: Under 62
No. 9 Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss Odds and Picks
Saturday 12th November – 3:30pm EST
Game Lines:
Moneyline: Alabama -440 | Ole Miss +335
Spread: Alabama -12
Points Total: 64.5 | Over -110 | Under -110
Sam’s Picks
Moneyline: Alabama
Spread: Ole Miss to cover
Over/Under: Under 64.5
Ole Miss is the latest victim in the round of ‘Who will Alabama pummel following a close loss?’. Nobody will be wanting this win more than Lane Kiffin, who will be doing his best to playfully troll Saban and the Bama sideline (not too vigorously though as Lane does have his eyes on the Crimson Tide job when Saban finally decides to hang them up). Alabama will have to be far more disciplined this week than in Death Valley, and have given up an abnormal amount of penalties for a team coached by Nick Saban this season. LSU showed Bryce Young can get flustered if you get after him, and the Crimson Tide will need to do a better job of protecting their star quarterback. That said, I still expect them to respond and win.
Matt’s Pick of the game:
As Sam says, historically when Alabama loses a close one, they respond by walloping their opponents in the next game. However, this isn’t your regular Alabama team, and they have repeatedly been rattled by tough road environments all season. If we’re going to point out that they are a last-second field goal by Tennessee and a two-point conversion in overtime by LSU away from being undefeated, we should also say that they could have easily lost to Texas and Texas A&M and could be 5-4 at this point. I think they’ll struggle to cover a 12-point spread on the road against a good Ole Miss team, and could easily lose again.
Points Spread: Ole Miss +12
No. 22 UCF at No. 17 Tulane Odds and Picks
Saturday 12th November – 3:30pm EST
Game Lines:
Moneyline: UCF +100 | Tulane -120
Spread: Tulane -2.5
Points Total: 54.5 | Over -110 | Under -110
Sam’s Picks
Moneyline: Tulane
Spread: Tulane to cover
Over/Under: Under 54.5
It’s the AAC game of the year so far as the Green Wave look to continue their charge to a NY6 bowl. Both teams enter this one with top-sixteen defenses and steady offenses. Whilst Gus Malzahn has done it at the highest level, Tulane is one of the feel-good stories of college football this year and I’m backing that to continue.
Matt’s Pick of the game:
This one is a huge game for the G5 New Year’s Six bowl game and has massive AAC implications too. Tulane has been one of the stories of college football this year, and I like them to continue rolling here. Their defense is the best in their conference, and they’ve won comfortably in tough games against Houston, East Carolina, Memphis, and Tulsa in recent weeks. Give me the Wave.
Points Spread: Tulane -2.5
No. 25 Washington at No. 6 Oregon Odds and Picks
Saturday 12th November – 7:00pm EST
Game Lines:
Moneyline: Washington +400 | Oregon -550
Spread: Oregon -13.5
Points Total: 72.5 | Over -110 | Under -110
Sam’s Picks
Moneyline: Oregon
Spread: Oregon to cover
Over/Under: Under 72.5
The Bo Nix resurgence continues, even if it is in the PAC-12. The former Auburn QB seems to have left his struggles in the SEC behind him and is priming the Ducks for a run at the PAC-12 Title and a potential playoff berth. Whilst the real test will come during bowl season, when we get to see Nix against tougher competition again (the Week 1 drubbing against Georgia gets a pass given it was his and his Head Coach’s first game with Oregon), I expect Oregon to continue rolling the PAC-12.
Matt’s Pick of the game:
Bo Nix and Oregon have to win out if they want to be playing in the College Football Playoff, and I can see them putting on a show here. Washington have a great QB in Michael Penix Jr. and not much else, as well as a really bad defense. I can see Oregon winning this one comfortably.
Points Spread: Oregon -13.5
No.1 Georgia at Mississippi State Odds and Picks
Saturday 12th November – 7:00pm EST
Game Lines:
Moneyline: Georgia -800 | Mississippi State +550
Spread: Georgia -16
Points Total: 53.5 | Over -110 | Under -110
Sam’s Picks
Moneyline: Georgia
Spread: Georgia to cover
Over/Under: Under 53.5
Tennesse was my pick to win the SEC Championship prior to last week’s loss at Georgia. The Bulldogs shut down any talk of a challenge to their dominance in the East and showed that for the time being, they are the clear number one team in the country. They didn’t allow the Vols and Hendon Hooker to get going all day, and Mike Leach, Will Rogers, and Miss State will face a similar fate this Saturday as Georgia romp their way to Atlanta.
Matt’s Pick of the game:
Georgia is a seriously good team, but 16 points in a road SEC game is a big spread, and I’m just not confident enough to bet on the spread. I do like the over here, however, as I think Mississippi State has enough talent on offense to get some points, while Georgia shouldn’t have any issues putting points on the board themselves.
Points Total: Over 53.5
No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas Odds and Picks
Saturday 12th November – 7:30pm EST
Game Lines:
Moneyline: TCU +228 | Texas -285
Spread: Texas -7.5
Points Total: 65 | Over -110 | Under -110
Sam’s Picks
Moneyline: TCU
Spread: TCU to cover
Over/Under: Over 65
Vegas is firmly backing the Longhorns to play spoiler and dash TCU’s hopes of a playoff spot. Whilst the Longhorns do have the capability to put it all together and talent in Quinn Ewers and Bijan Robinson, the consistency has not always been there and they are a three-loss team for a reason. The spread is incredibly large, even if the game is taking place in Austin, and a line of 1.5 or 2 would seem much more appropriate to me. Texas knocked off Kansas State last week, but their second-half showings need vast improvement if they’re to hold off Max Duggan and Kendre Miller. TCU also has a knack of coming on strong as the game drags on, whilst Texas seems to trail off. I’m backing the Horned Frogs to continue their undefeated season.
Matt’s Pick of the game:
There are two ways to look at TCU, you could either say all these fourth-quarter comebacks show that they have amazing fight and will, or that they are living a charmed life. I think it’s a little of column A and a little of column B. I just think their luck may run out a bit here and Quinn ewers and Bijan Robinson make it hard on the Horned Frogs. That said, 7.5 is a serious spread, and I think this game has TCU backdoor cover written all over it.
Points Spread: TCU +7.5
