Everyone thought the Cardinals’ season was over before it began.
And while a 1-3 start doesn’t exactly shout success, the way it has gone allows for a glimmer of hope.
The Cardinals are up to No. 6 in the NFL in offensive efficiency after a solid showing against the monstrous 49ers defense on Sunday. The defense is down to No. 30 after giving up touchdowns on all but one drive to San Francisco, but has shown to be plucky for much of the year.
Overall, the Cardinals sit at No. 16 in DVOA, higher than the Rams, Packers, Saints and many other 2-2 squads.
Which leads us to this: while a loss effectively ends the season after five games, if the Cardinals beat the Bengals on Sunday, it allows fans to dream of a sped-up timeline for competitiveness.
Arizona would be 2-3 with a win and one week closer to a Kyler Murray return.
Then comes these eight games before the bye: at the Rams, at the Seahawks, vs. the Ravens, at the Browns, vs. the Falcons, at the Texans, vs. the Rams and at the Steelers.
Not the easiest slate, but there are wins to be had in there, especially on the back half. The Cardinals still have +1500 odds to make the playoffs, per DraftKings, and their season win total remains at 4.5.
But while the oddsmakers still have questions, we can’t deny how well the offense is playing. And in the NFL, when you can move the ball and score points, you have a shot.
The spread on Bengals-Cardinals is much different than expected heading into the year. Arizona is only a three-point underdog, as it has outplayed expectations while Cincinnati is off to a horrid start.
Much of that is tied to star quarterback Joe Burrow’s calf injury, which has turned the passing game from elite to ugly.
Now, the Bengals still have Ja’Marr Chase to deal with on the outside, and the Cardinals will have a hard time with that. But Cincinnati is averaging only 12.3 points per game and 4.2 net yards per pass attempt.
Burrow is clearly not right, and the Cardinals have to take advantage by stealing this one before he gets healthy.
The dream before the season was to grab the Nos. 1 and 2 overall picks in the draft. But it’s the Chicago Bears who have the inside track on that, while the Cardinals are currently in line to pick at Nos. 9 and 13.
The Texans have the fifth-best point-differential in the AFC, and with rookie CJ Stroud already looking like a potential star, they likely won’t be in the mix for the top pick.
If the Cardinals lose on Sunday, they will drop to 1-4 and the season will effectively be over. They probably aren’t bad enough to chase down the Bears for the top pick, and even a top-5 choice feels borderline at this point.
The alternative is much more exciting. Beat the Bengals, and start believing that this season shouldn’t be put out to pasture quite yet.
There are six teams that seem very, very likely to make the playoffs: the 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, Seahawks and the NFC South winner.
The seventh spot is hard to peg.
The Cardinals almost certainly won’t get it, but it sure would be fun to hang around for a bit.
If they can have a four-week stretch of top-6 offense without Kyler Murray, what’s the ceiling when the star signal-caller returns?
The Cardinals have injected excitement into its fanbase with an encouraging start. They are one win away from taking that up another notch.
