Nine races into the 2022 season and it might already be the case that Max Verstappen cannot be caught at the top of the drivers’ standings. The defending champion’s victory in Montreal means he has now seen the chequered flag in five of his last six races, with the streak opening up a 46-point gap between Verstappen and his nearest challenger.
Most concerning for the rest of F1 is that his nearest challenger is now Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez. While Ferrari have been competitive at various points of the season so far, they have lacked the reliability to consistently win races. As things stand, Red Bull are the dominant force in the sport with Mercedes still struggling badly.
Lewis Hamilton finished on the podium for only the second time in 2022 at the Canadian Grand Prix and knows how to win at Silverstone having won the British Grand Prix more times than any other driver. There have been some tentative signs of improvement from Mercedes in the last two races, but porpoising is still an issue. Nonetheless, a price of +1100 for a Hamilton win is good value.
George Russell (+1300 to win) will be competing as a Mercedes driver at his home race for the first time this weekend, and the 24-year-old can be pleased with the consistent start he has made to life with the Silver Arrows. The British Grand Prix will be a measure of just how far Mercedes has come in the last few weeks with some of the upgrades and new set-ups they have tried.
“It would mean a huge amount,” Russell said when asked about the prospect of winning the British Grand Prix for the first time. “I want my first podium at Silverstone to be on the top step, so that’s what I am absolutely going for. Not that I’d back off on the last lap if I’m second or third to not be on the podium, but Silverstone has such a fond place in my heart.”
Silverstone is known for being one of the fastest circuits on the F1 calendar, with the British Grand Prix witness to one of the defining moments of last season’s scrap between Verstappen (-105 favorite to win this weekend) and Lewis Hamilton. There could be similar moments this weekend, although Mercedes might not get too close to Red Bull.
There is some reason for optimism at Mercedes, though. The three-race stretch of Monaco, Baku and Montreal was never likely to favour them, so emerging from this run with two podiums likely exceeded the expectations of even Toto Wolff. Now, with Silverstone better suited to the W13 car, the Silver Arrows might be able to continue the recovery that started at the Spanish Grand Prix.
Ferrari needed a good showing at the Canadian Grand Prix to keep their drivers’ and constructors’ championship hopes alive, and did just enough to remain competitive as Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc finished second and fifth respectively. If the latter, in particular, can make the top step at Silverstone, it could reignite the Scuderia’s season.
Christian Horner anticipates a strong showing by Ferrari this weekend with the characteristics of the Silverstone circuit seemingly well-suited to the Scuderia’s current F1-75 car. The nature of the track means porpoising should be less of a concern and that could be to the benefit of Ferrari and Mercedes.
“Looking at it on pure form, you’d say that going there, like Barcelona, it’s going to be a strong race for [Ferrari],” said Horner after the Canadian Grand Prix. “Mercedes, their race pace at the end there was strong as well, so that could well be a factor at that race. It’s going to be interesting to see, I’m hearing there are going to be a few upgrades as well on the Ferrari. It’s going to be an interesting one.”
Leclerc (+225 to win the British Grand Prix) has emerged as something of a Silverstone specialist over the last few years and will be determined to collect his first race victory since the Australian Grand Prix in April. The medium-and-high-speed corners of the circuit might allow Leclerc to perform at his best, but only if the car beneath him can last the race – a lack of reliability has held Ferrari back of late.
McLaren could do with a good showing at their home race after a disappointing Canadian Grand Prix in which Daniel Ricciardo finished 11th and Lando Norris 15th. McLaren need a solid haul of points to boost their chances of climbing through the midfield pack, with Norris particularly positive about the team’s prospects.
“Since the last race in Canada, we have worked hard on our performance and understood as a team what we need to do better,” said Norris, who is sitting in seventh in the drivers’ standings. “We now have a good understanding of that, and although we know there is no overnight solution, we will do everything we can to give the home fans something to cheer about.”
Alpine has produced some encouraging performances this season, including in Canadian Grand Prix qualifying when Fernando Alonso put himself on the front row. The Spaniard could only finish ninth on race day, but Esteban Ocon crossed the line in sixth. The quick nature of Silverstone could see Alpine push for a podium this weekend.
It might still be relatively early in the season, but Ferrari must change the momentum to stand any realistic chance of fulfilling the championship potential they demonstrated in the first few races of 2022. The Scuderia will have an upgrades package to roll out this weekend and the success or failure of this could have a bearing on the success or failure of their campaign as a whole. There is a lot riding on the outcome of the British Grand Prix for them.
