Kyler Murray secured the bag on Thursday morning.
The Arizona Cardinals’ 24-year-old quarterback agreed to an extension that will pay him $230.5 million over five years, the second-biggest contract in NFL history.
The deal starts in 2024, which follows the completion of his five-year rookie contract. If Murray plays out the entirety of the extension, his career earnings will be $295.8 million through 2028 — and he will still be just 31 years old.
It got me thinking: Could Murray become the first player in NFL history to reach $1 billion in earnings?
Here to Stay. pic.twitter.com/p1OQLadEET
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) July 21, 2022
It’s really not that far-fetched.
If Murray played 10 more seasons at the conclusion of this extension (through age-41) he would need to average $70.4 million per year to reach $1 billion. If he played 12 more (through age-43) that number would shrink to $58.7 million per year.
Quarterback money is only going to increase in the future, and the prime years for that position can often extend deep into a player’s 30s, or even 40s.
Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers is 38, and he just inked a three-year contract with the Green Bay Packers that will pay him more than $50 million per year. Tom Brady is still going strong at age-45.
Murray would have to be elite for a long time and his agent would have to master the art of contract negotiations, but so far both have been true.
The Cardinals were aiming to get a sixth year on the extension. Kyler Murray's camp stood firm at five because QB contracts will be even more bonkers down the road.
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) July 21, 2022
While it would take plenty of good fortune for Murray to make $1 billion on the field, he has the best setup among current quarterbacks for a few reasons.
- Murray was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft, which maximized his rookie-scale earnings, and by reaching a pair of Pro Bowls within his first three seasons, his fifth-year option inflated to its max value as well.
- Murray entered the NFL at age-21, younger than many of his quarterback peers, which will allow him to receive market value contracts beginning at age-26.
- His contract extension is short enough to give him several more bites at the apple moving forward.
Brady is the best quarterback of all-time and Rodgers isn’t far behind, but they played the majority of their career before quarterback salaries exploded and won’t come close to $1 billion.
Patrick Mahomes is almost universally considered the best young quarterback in the NFL, but he signed a team-friendly 10-year, $450 million extension with the Chiefs last offseason, which keeps him under contract until age-36 and hampers his earning power.
Joe Burrow could very well receive a higher average annual salary once eligible next season, but he was drafted one season after Murray and is a year older, which complicates his road to earning $1 billion.
The delay in contract negotiations worked out nicely for Kyler Murray. He likely would have signed for $43M per year if the Cardinals engaged in February. That's an extra $15M over the life of the contract.
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) July 21, 2022
Lamar Jackson is only 25 years old and already entering his fifth year in the NFL, so he is another logical candidate. Jackson, though, has made less than $10 million in his career after being drafted late in the first round, and will really need to pick it up. Additionally, his play-style is more predicated on rushing than Murray, which could shorten his shelf life.
Justin Herbert and Josh Allen are a pair of quarterbacks to watch, though, as they could be right there with Murray in the push for $1 billion. While neither was the No. 1 overall pick, both are young and talented enough to have a chance.
No player in American team sports history has even reached $500 million of career earnings.
Brady leads the way in the NFL with $302.9 million, while LeBron James ($387.4 million), Alex Rodriguez ($455.2 million) and Sidney Crosby ($146.9 million) are atop their respective sports, according to Spotrac.
The one player who has crossed the $1 billion threshold, according to Forbes? Famed footballer Cristiano Ronaldo.
Murray is unlikely to be the first American player to reach it. In fact, he probably wouldn’t even be the first player in Arizona to get there, as Devin Booker is on a faster trajectory.
But he could make history in the NFL.
Highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL:
1. Aaron Rodgers, $50.3M
2. Kyler Murray, $46.1M
3. Deshaun Watson, $46M
4. Patrick Mahomes, $45M
5. Josh Allen, $43M— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) July 21, 2022
First and foremost, Murray must build on the strong start to his career and remain one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. As he ages, his electric rushing ability will begin to wane, and he will need to evolve like Russell Wilson. And he must stay healthy.
But Murray has already shown the requisite arm talent to be a star in the pocket. He was fourth in the NFL in yards per attempt last season and No. 2 in Completion Percentage Over Expectation. He led the league in myriad passing statistics before suffering an injury and losing DeAndre Hopkins midway through the season.
Murray is passionate about the sport of football, and while his priorities could always change later in life, he seems like a guy who could be interested in playing for a long time.
So, yeah, he got the bag this week.
But the big bag, the one that would allow him to join Ronaldo in the exclusive billion-dollar on-field earnings club? That answer won’t come for a long time.
But it’s certainly a legitimate possibility.
