Breaking Down a Crowded Group of Western Conference Play-In Candidates

The regular season is rapidly coming to an end, which means we will soon know which organizations are heading to the playoffs and which ones will be counting their lottery balls on their early vacation.

But with the league reinstating a play-in tournament after their return from a pandemic-induced pause in 2020, a new subset of teams teetering on the boundaries of NBA competitiveness was born.

Coincidentally, the San Antonio Spurs have been either directly involved or on the brink of participating in the play-in extravaganza every season since it came into existence. This year is no different as Gregg Popovich has his club sitting a few games outside of the tenth seed in the Western Conference with a legitimate shot at supplanting the franchises in front of them before the clock hits zero.

How do the Western Conference play-in tournament candidates stack up against each other? And what are the chances the Silver and Black punch their ticket for the second year in a row?

Probable Play-In Locks

Minnesota Timberwolves: 40-30 (7th Place)

NBA Playoff Odds: –1000 via BetRivers

It feels like Minnesota is a safe bet to make the play-in tournament at this point with as well as they have played recently. The Timberwolves are ten games above .500 and 9-2 since the All-Star Break. Sinking 38.5% of their league-leading 462 three-point attempts over that period also helps.

They even pulled off a 149-139 victory over San Antonio on Monday night in which Karl-Anthony Towns exploded for a career-high 60 points and 17 rebounds in 36 minutes, and it might have been more if not for the three-time All-Star getting into foul trouble.

The Wolves still have to face the Bucks, Mavericks (twice), Suns, Celtics, Raptors, and Bulls before the season concludes, but they also have a few matchups with the Lakers, Rockets, Wizards, and Spurs. They would have to go through a monumental collapse to miss the play-in.

Los Angeles Clippers: 36-35 (8th Place)

NBA Playoff Odds: -275 via BetRivers

Kawhi Leonard hasn’t suited up for a single game all season, Paul George has been on the shelf for three months, and Norman Powell has played in three games since joining the Clippers at the trade deadline. Yet this team refuses to concede their spot in the Western Conference standings.

Head coach Ty Lue and de facto go-to option Reggie Jackson deserve a ton of credit for keeping Los Angeles afloat as injuries have ravaged their roster. The supporting cast of Marcus Morris, Luke Kennard, Ivica Zubac, Amir Coffey, and Terance Mann has also earned a pat on the back.

The Clippers have allowed the fourth-fewest points per game (108.2) over their last ten contests, but that may change soon. They still have the Jazz (twice), Nuggets, Bucks, 76ers, Bulls, Suns, and Raptors left on their slate, so keep an eye on a potential slide towards the back-end of the play-in.

Possible Play-In Hopefuls

Los Angeles Lakers: 29-39 (9th Place)

NBA Playoff Odds: +250 via BetRivers

Has any club been a larger laughingstock this season than the Lakers? To be at least a little fair, losing Anthony Davis and LeBron James for lengthy periods didn’t make things easy for Los Angeles. But their irrational roster construction left the door open for massive disappointment.

LeBron has been fantastic in his 19th season in the NBA. His production and efficiency as a 37-year-old are unmatched. But his efforts have often gone to waste. James has posted 32.8 points per game since the All-Star break, yet the Lakers are winless when he doesn’t score 50.

This pitiful rendition of the Purple and Gold hasn’t won on the road since January 25, and ten of its final 14 matchups are away from Crypto.com Arena. Don’t be shocked if head coach Frank Vogel and company slip out of the play-in tournament as they struggle to find their footing.

New Orleans Pelicans: 28-40 (10th Place)

NBA Playoff Odds: +460 via BetRivers

New Orleans is holding onto the final play-in tournament seed by the skin of their teeth, and several extenuating circumstances could seal their fate over the next few days. Zion Williamson is a question mark, C.J. McCollum contracted COVID-19, and Brandon Ingram suffered a hamstring injury.

Pelicans’ Zion Williamson is returning to New Orleans after spending time in Portland for his foot rehab, sources tell me and @WillGuillory. Williamson is cleared to progress in basketball activities. Pelicans have won four straight games and are in playoff race.

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) March 5, 2022

If all of the players mentioned overhead return soon, the Pelicans have a legitimate chance to make the play-in and maybe give fans a must-watch first-round series with the Suns or Grizzlies. Should those plans fall apart, they could also be on their way to a fifth consecutive trip to the lottery.

The Suns, Bulls, Grizzlies, and Warriors presumably give New Orleans four guaranteed losses on their remaining schedule. That said, the rest of their nine opponents have a losing record as of today. This one could go either way, and I’m already white-knuckling at the keyboard as I type this.

Portland Trail Blazers: 26-41 (11th Place)

While the Trail Blazers may not have come out and stated their intentions to tank, all it takes is a single look at their post-All-Star Break movements to understand their goals. Portland is 1-8 during that span, with a league-worst -23.2 net rating that makes the 7-59 Bobcats look like contenders.

First-year head coach Chauncey Billups has trotted out a starting lineup of Brandon Williams, Josh Hart, C.J. Elleby, Trendon Watford, and former Spur Drew Eubanks over the last two games. Most fans probably couldn’t tell you what position those guys play, and that’s waving the white flag.

Per Tankathon, Portland has the weakest remaining strength of schedule, which is honestly hilarious. Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, Nassir Little, Eric Bledsoe, Joe Ingles, and Anfernee Simons are all on ice, and the chances they dress for the Blazers seem slim. Start counting those lottery balls.

San Antonio Spurs: 26-43 (12th Place)

NBA Playoff Odds: +750 via DraftKings

Perhaps no one in the play-in range has more control of their destiny than the Spurs. San Antonio has three tilts with the Blazers and two versus the Pelicans, both of whom stand between them qualifying for the win-or-go-home tournament for a second consecutive season.

The Silver and Black also have the remarkable luxury of facing the openly tanking Rockets and Thunder. That said, head coach Gregg Popovich and crew battle the Mavericks, Nuggets, Grizzlies, and Warriors (twice). Even if they drop those games, going 8-5 is still on the table.

Can the Spurs feasibly sneak their way into the play-in tournament? Sure, especially amid all the terrible incompetence from their fellow postseason hopefuls. Should they strive for it? That answer depends on how you view their situation. But the window is open, so root for whatever you want.

Sacramento Kings: 25-45 (13th Place)

NBA Playoff Odds: +2000 via DraftKings

Reports surfaced that Kings brass gave general manager Monte McNair a playoff mandate before the All-Star Break. So the second-year executive pulled off a blockbuster trade deadline package centered around All-Star Domanatas Sabonis while adding a few role players in ancillary deals.

Several writers knocked Sacramento for mortgaging a blue chip prospect like Tyrese Haliburton to go all-in on what could be a two-and-a-half-year rental of a lower-tier star. So far, critics appear to be correct, as the Kings have gone 5-9 since adding Sabonis to their roster.

Despite a rocky start to the De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis chapter, Sac-Town still has a plausible path towards the play-in tournament. The Kings defeated the fourth-place Bulls on Monday, and perhaps that gives them momentum to tackle the eighth-toughest schedule from here on out.