It would be ridiculously premature to say the Western Conference semifinal series between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks is a forgone conclusion after one game.
But it sure feels that way, doesn’t it?
Monday’s final score — Phoenix 121, Dallas 114 — isn’t overly important. The Suns are the No. 1 seed, they were playing at home, and after the blood-and-guts series against New Orleans, facing the smallish Mavericks must have felt like a leisurely Sunday stroll in the park.
It’s no surprise they won. In fact, it would have been a huge surprise if they hadn’t.
No, what makes this series appear so one-sided is that — the Mavericks’ garbage-time comeback notwithstanding — there’s little Dallas seemingly can do to alter its course. Phoenix has the more talented roster, a deeper roster, the bigger team, and answers for every question the Mavericks might pose.
Consider this impenetrable stat, as well: Phoenix has won 10 straight games against Dallas.
And the Mavericks are going to win four games this series? Yeah, I don’t think so.
Mavericks' small-ball won't work against Ayton and Suns. Phoenix wins series in five games.
— scott bordow (@sbordow) May 2, 2022
The Suns, of course, aren’t saying any of those things. Their analysis of Game 1 — and the series — was as predictable as it was boring.
“It’s one game,” Chris Paul said.
One decisive, told-us-everything-we-need-to-know game.
The only schematic question entering the series was whether Dallas, which plays a five-out offense with Dwight Powell, a natural power forward, at center, could be effective with its small lineup and possibly force Monty Williams to go small, neutralizing Deandre Ayton.
But Williams didn’t take the bait — and he won’t have to the rest of the series — because Ayton is the unique big who can cover Dallas’ guards on a switch and drop into coverage when Doncic barrels into the lane.
The result: After getting pounded on the boards by New Orleans, Phoenix had a 51-35 rebounding advantage in Game 1. Not only that, Ayton used his size to punish Dallas on the offensive end, finishing with 25 points on 12 of 20 shooting.
Devin Booker and the @Suns win Game 1 at home! Game 2 is Wednesday at 10 PM ET on TNT.
DeAndre Ayton: 25 PTS, 8 REB
Chris Paul: 19 PTS
Cam Johnson: 17 PTS
Luka Doncic: 45 PTS, 12 REB, 8 AST pic.twitter.com/eGnxCQYN3H— NBA (@NBA) May 3, 2022
One second-quarter sequence illustrated Ayton’s value. He picked up Doncic on a pick-and-roll and influenced a miss from 3-point range, then hit an 11-foot jump shot to give Phoenix a 13-point lead.
Dallas can’t counter Ayton’s size or athleticism and if this series went 100 games that wouldn’t change.
“He’s a beast down there and he proves it night in and night out,” Devin Booker said. “That’s what teams try to do versus us, go with five guards, and that’s his time to punish them.”
Dallas’ other hope — its only other hope — was that Doncic would lift himself above the series, like Allen Iverson did all those years with the Philadelphia 76ers and LeBron James did in his first stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Doncic was absurdly spectacular Monday, scoring 45 points with 12 rebounds and eight assists – but two things:
First, no one player is going to beat these Suns.
“Anytime a guy has 45 you look at the number and you don’t like it,” Williams said, “but I look at their assist numbers. They only had 16. For the most part, nobody else got going the way they’re capable.”
Second, Doncic has to be a walking triple-double every game just for Dallas to have a chance.
That kind of responsibility and attention — at least five different Suns took a turn covering Doncic Monday — could wear Doncic out as the series progresses. He already looked tired on the defensive end in Game 1, unwilling or unable to chase Cam Johnson, resulting in two open 3-pointers for Phoenix’s forward in the second half.
Final: Suns 121, Mavericks 114
Deandre Ayton = 25 points, 8 rebounds
Devin Booker = 23 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists
Chris Paul = 19 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists
Cam Johnson = 17 points, 5 rebounds
Luka Doncic = 45 points, 12 rebounds, 8 assists— Evan Sidery (@esidery) May 3, 2022
Meanwhile, Booker, who scored 23 points with nine rebounds and eight assists, can be just as dominant, only he can pick his spots because the Suns have so many scorers around him. Don’t be surprised if there’s a game this series where a weary Doncic doesn’t have it and Booker goes off.
Everything we saw in Game 1 — with the exception of Dallas’ fourth-quarter comeback after the Suns relaxed — was everything we expected coming into the series.
So, we’ll end with this question:
Can we just cut to the Suns-Warriors Western Conference Finals?
