Ask Odegard: Kyler Murray or Caleb Williams as Cardinals Quarterback in 2024?

Welcome to my first mailbag, which is being published in conjunction with my first newsletter. (The synergy is sensational.)

I’m going to send out the first few of these on social media but will eventually make it subscriber-only content, so please sign up for Cover Story to keep reading my mailbags until the end of time.

On to your questions.

Rick Moranes: What do you tell a diehard Cardinals fan about the plan to tank? Rather, how do you make them feel better?

Kyle Odegard: Honestly, Rick, if I was a diehard Cardinals fan, the moves this offseason would have me more excited than any non-tanking plan the team could have put forward. The worst place to be in the NFL is purgatory. Look at a team like the Washington Commanders, who seem to finish with seven or eight wins every season, but have no real chance of competing for a Super Bowl. 

The Cardinals are going to take their lumps this year, and sure, if they had re-signed Zach Allen and Byron Murphy, then drafted Will Anderson, the defense would have been much better, but the Cardinals still would have struggled to win eight games. 

By taking this route, they will have cap space and draft picks to turn things around as soon as 2024, with a clear path toward legitimate contention by 2025 if everything goes as planned.

Steve Keim was never willing to stomach a complete teardown. Monti Ossenfort has leaned into it, and for that, Cardinals fans should be grateful.https://t.co/75wh5M4uK3

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) May 30, 2023

Monsterdemo2: Which rookie do you see making the biggest impact?

KO: Beyond Paris Johnson, I think there is a great opportunity for third-rounder Michael Wilson to make his mark. The Cardinals need an ‘X’ receiver following the release of DeAndre Hopkins, and Wilson’s main competition is journeyman Zach Pascal. 

Wilson was oft-injured at Stanford but made some plays, and as forward-looking as the Cardinals will be this season, a quick acclimation could get him in the mix for significant playing time. 

As a whole, the rookie class should be very involved this year. Edge rusher B.J. Ojulari, cornerback Garrett Williams, interior lineman Jon Gaines and inside linebacker Owen Pappoe all play positions that are paper-thin.

Vony Duncan: You think we are sticking with Kyler for 2024 or going to get Caleb?

KO: Ah, the million-dollar question. Kyler Murray was the Rookie of the Year and a two-time Pro Bowler after three NFL seasons, but had a down 2022 and is coming off a torn ACL. Would the Cardinals dare pull another quarterback switcheroo? I think there’s an easy answer.

While Caleb Williams-to-the-Cardinals is getting plenty of buzz, there’s still not a great chance of it happening. I Tweeted out Arizona’s odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick in 2024, and while 31% is crazy high for any one team, it still means there is a 69% chance that someone else nabs it. Don’t underestimate how quickly injuries or terrible quarterback play can torpedo a team.

Best odds to get the No. 1 pick in next year's draft, per ESPN's FPI:

1. Cardinals, 18%
2. Cardinals (via Texans), 13%
3. Buccaneers, 11%
4. Colts, 9%
5. Rams, 5%

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) May 23, 2023

So the Cardinals are underdogs to land the top pick, and even if they get it, I’m far from sold that they will trade Murray. They would take on a dead cap hit of $46.2 million and give up on a quarterback that has shown why he was the No. 1 overall pick in 2019. They would also miss out on a chance to trade down and accumulate multiple first-rounders.

Williams is the shiny new toy right now, but he’s got to prove himself for another college season before being labeled a truly generational quarterback prospect. If he gets that moniker and Murray struggles in his return this year, a switch could happen. 

But from everything I’ve heard, the Cardinals’ coaching staff is very excited to have Murray as their quarterback, and numerous factors would need to coincide for Williams to replace him in 2024. I don’t think it will happen.

As speculation swirls about his long-term future in Arizona, here’s some intel about Kyler Murray’s relationship with the new Cardinals regime:https://t.co/6HoahM9uAX

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) May 8, 2023

Rich Paull: What is the superior version of Mountain Dew, and why is it Code Red?

KO: Great question, Rich… for someone else to answer. I’ve only had regular Mountain Dew. 

Cardinals Update: How did it feel being labeled as an “online bet guy?”

KO: Haha, so the back-story here for those who don’t know: Heading into the 2021 wild card game against the Rams, Arizona Sports radio host John Gambadoro said DeAndre Hopkins was “probably going to play” despite tearing his MCL a month prior. 

I asked around and was told Hopkins was done for the year even if the Cardinals made the Super Bowl, so I put out an article refuting Gambadoro’s stance. 

That got me blocked on Twitter, and then in January, I reported that there was a tense meeting between owner Michael Bidwill, GM Steve Keim and coach Kliff Kingsbury. 

The Cardinals looked to save face by telling Ian Rapoport and Gambadoro that the meeting never happened, and Gambo evidently questioned my credibility on-air, referring to me as some sports betting guy.

Gambo saying this is inaccurate and "considering where it's coming from, some guy on a betting site". Wow.

— Chuck Harris (@chuckh3) January 20, 2022

Rapoport also questioned my journalistic practices on the Pat McAfee show — I’m sensing a theme — but once McAfee backed up my reporting I think it became pretty clear who had the better sourcing.

Pat seems to have heard the same thing about a meeting that never happened. https://t.co/7aCUQxH49S

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) January 21, 2022

To answer your question, I don’t mind at all being labeled an online bet guy. It’s not a pejorative to me, and even if it was, I don’t get bothered by that stuff. I’m going to do the job to the best of my ability, and fans can decide how much credibility I have.

And since part of my job is to criticize NFL players, coaches, GMs, owners, etc. when warranted, it would be hypocritical of me to get offended when someone criticizes me.

I know I joked about it on Twitter, but ‘online bet guy’ is fine with me.

Me hunting down scoops ever since Gambo called me “some guy from a sports betting website” pic.twitter.com/sQ50rtasgA

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) April 5, 2023

NBAbird20: Please give me a reason not to lay the 6 on the commandos week one.

KO: Well, first off, the Commanders are better than the Cardinals, but it’s not like their offense is super dynamic. It will be the first game with Jacoby Brissett under center, provided he wins that competition, and there could be some hiccups.

And six points is a pretty tall order in the NFL. This could be one of those ugly ones that ends up in a three- or four-point spread. Arizona is going to use more of a run-heavy attack, and maybe the offensive line can do some things to move the ball.

(I didn’t really convince myself in those two paragraphs, but maybe it worked on you.)

Jerry Honk: How can I still be a fan of the team when the owner is alleged not a very nice human?

KO: That’s certainly an individual decision that I won’t try to influence. There are myriad things to spend our money and free time on, and if the allegations of mistreatment against Michael Bidwill affect your Cardinals fandom, it’s totally understandable.

Finn: I’ve heard Nick Rallis referred to as the McVay of Defense, can you elaborate at all how he has earned such a comparison? As I associate McVay with exotic looks and scheming and pressure whereas everything JG says makes me think our D will be disciplined, structured and cautious! So how was Rallis able to show JG his defensive creativity and will he be able to incorporate some of these riskier formations in amongst a more Conservative playbook?

KO: I don’t know for sure, but comparisons to Sean McVay would probably have more to do with age. Rallis got the Cardinals’ defensive coordinator job at 29, which indeed puts him on a warp-speed path in the NFL coaching world.

Defensive coordinator Nick Rallis and linebacker Zaven Collins chat during today’s minicamp workout @FOX10Phoenix pic.twitter.com/7BaF6j3BDf

— Robby Baker (@RobbyBakerTV) June 14, 2023

As for the defense, Jonathan Gannon was able to play conservatively last season because he had some absolute dogs up-front in Philly, along with a pair of shutdown corners.

It will be interesting to see the schematic decisions this year, because heading into the season, it seems unlikely the Cardinals will be able to get consistent pressure with four or cover adequately when blitzing. Not a fun place to be as a defensive play-caller.

Sean: Giving this a whirl here: Hypothetically if a team thought they were about to be severely punished by the league, could they decide to trade away all their current and future draft picks now to avoid forfeiting them later?

KO: Well they can’t trade away all their picks in perpetuity, so eventually the league would be able to find something to seize, but on its face I think it could work. Like, if the Rams had gotten nailed for something in recent years, the league wouldn’t have been able to take a pick that was already dealt away.

That’s definitely some 4-D chess. Les Snead is taking notes if it ever comes up.