Ask Odegard: Am I Still Embracing the Tank?

It’s been quite a three-game start for the Cardinals, punctuated by Sunday’s upset win over the Cowboys.

Arizona is No. 10 in DVOA, the best among any team with a losing record, and optimism is sky-high heading into a road game with the 49ers on Sunday.

Is it time to adjust 2023 expectations? Let’s get into it.

“Are you still embracing the tank?” – Felipe Corral, Jr.

Kyle Odegard: This is definitely a very pertinent question at this point, and my answer is… maybe.

The way I see it, there are two very encouraging scenarios the rest of the way.

The most ideal, and the most fun, would be to blow up everyone’s preseason expectations and win seven, eight, even nine games. It’s unlikely, but we need only look at the Seahawks last year as a team that everyone wrote off and still made the wild card game. The Cardinals have 15/1 odds to reach the playoffs, so it would be a shocker, but those odds were 30/1 a couple weeks ago.

The other scenario is to continue playing this way but keep losing toss-up games. If the Cardinals were 2-1 right now, it would be full steam ahead, but they need to beat either the 49ers or the Bengals in the next two weeks to avoid a 1-4 start, and that’s tough.

I don’t think the Cardinals are nearly as likely to finish with a top-2 pick as I did before the year. But I also don’t think they will make the postseason, so I guess it’s a quasi-tank. Keep playing hard and show improvement, win games that you dominate, but if the 50-50 ones go against you, it’s a better thing in the long run because you might just squeeze your way into a top-3 pick.

The Cardinals might be playing themselves out of the Caleb Williams sweepstakes.

For most rebuilding teams that would be a bad thing, but not for Arizona.https://t.co/keGg6quOT5

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) September 25, 2023

“Will Rondale get more reps at RB?” – Rizzy

KO: I looove the way they are using Rondale right now. It’s the Deebo Samuel setup and it’s perfect. He’s way smaller than Deebo and I don’t want someone like that carrying the ball 6-to-8 times per game, but two-to-four, either from the backfield or on jet sweeps is lovely.

The lack of a No. 2 running back is an issue but I don’t want to see Rondale in that role because it will result in too much wear-and-tear. Plus, he’s still a solid receiver.

“Who’s your favorite Tennessee titan?” – TC

KO: Haha, I don’t mind at all that DeAndre Hopkins quote-tweeted me a couple times this week. He could’ve left my dogs out of it, but, hey, I critique players all the time and it’s only fair for them to respond. 

The NFL is full of coach-speak, cliches and secrecy. I love it when athletes are transparent, even if it’s at my expense.

LMAO @Kyle_Odegard got him again pic.twitter.com/1BoZt0NYPe

— DO YOU HAVE THAT FIRE IN YOUR GUT (@redriverboat2) September 25, 2023

“How many seasons until our coordinators get poached at the rate we are playing” – Teese

KO: At the rate they are playing? Yo, if the Cardinals do this all year, Drew Petzing might be a head coach in 2024. Honestly, though, if the scheme continues to look this solid and Kyler Murray looks better than he did with Kliff Kingsbury, then Petzing could seriously be on the radar two seasons from now.

It will be harder for Nick Rallis because the head coach is also a defensive mind, but both coordinators have been very impressive and look like great hires.

No Kyler, no Hop and the Cardinals are No. 8 in the NFL in offensive efficiency through three games.

Drew Petzing, take a bow.

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) September 26, 2023

“Any update on when D-Wash is coming back?” – Mr. Macaroni

KO: I believe you are looking for Darren’s mailbag.

“Let’s say we keep our picks next year, and Kyler is healthy. Outside of MHJ, who would we target in the draft? What position do you feel is super important. Trade pick for an elite CB?” – Connor Langpap

KO: Finding an elite CB or pass-rusher is the right answer, but you definitely don’t want to trade picks for veterans at this stage in the build. The core needs to be these draft picks, that can give you production on rookie contracts.

But, yes, in a perfect world you land MHJ and an upper-tier defender at a premium position.

“What do you think of Michael Wilson?” – Christopher Rivera

KO: Obviously I trolled a bit with that D-Hop/Wilson tweet. He’s not on Nuk’s level, and his 69-yard reception came on a busted coverage.

Michael Wilson has more receiving yards than DeAndre Hopkins this season.

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) September 25, 2023

I think Wilson does a nice job making contested catches and he runs nice routes. He’s not blowing by people or getting great separation, so I think it remains to be seen if he can truly become a No. 2 receiver in the NFL.

Some good early indications but hard to make any definitive judgments yet.

“Will Johnny and Bo take a stray this edition?” – Espo

KO: Johnny and Bo, you are safe (this week).

“When do we think K1 will return to practice and games?” – TheKroppTop

KO: I get the feeling we are still a couple weeks out from any significant movement. The plan all along was to be smart with him, even if Kyler is itching to get back on the field.

“What’s your favorite dog meme? j/k Seriously, with Buddah and Kyler playing, is this Cardinals team a playoff contender?” – Eric

KO: “I don’t know what to think at this point. We are still in small sample size territory despite the phenomenal start. You look at this team on paper and wonder how it is playing so well. I still err toward regression hitting, but could a healthy Kyler make this a legitimate top-10 offense? Possibly! And that would make Arizona a playoff contender.”

“Do you think the team might be abandoning the tank and overperforming just to make Caleb’s dad jealous? I bet he’d be kicking himself if we made the playoffs.” – Sean

KO: That must be the motivation. Millions of dollars in salary on the line? Unending internal drive that helped these guys make it to the NFL? Nope. Caleb’s dad has lit this team on fire.

Thoughts on paris johnson 3 game start to his career and the possibility of going for a gaurd in the first round this year?” – Charles Mendoza

KO: I think Paris has looked good. There are some technique things to clean up but you can’t teach his movement skills.

I don’t think they will take a guard in the first round. Monti Ossenfort focused heavily on premium positions in April and I’d expect him to do the same in 2024, especially when you are talking about potential top-10 picks.

The place to grab a guard is free agency because they aren’t overly expensive.

Really like what I’ve seen from PJJ. Has all the tools to be an elite OT. https://t.co/t6Ot5U9qs1

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) September 26, 2023

“What did your dogs do to Nuk?” – Lewis

KO: I don’t know, man. I think my dogs are cute.

“Why would Lovullo bring Ginkel in after he struggled in the same elements the day before??! Oh wait, did you mean football questions? After a big Cards win, will moral victories feel as … Moral?” – Shenanigans

KO: It’s an all-inclusive mailbag. Ask your D-Backs questions! Actually don’t because I didn’t watch the game and have fallen off badly since NFL started up.

Ah, yes, back to football. I definitely feel like the tide is turning on that. Before the Cowboys win everyone seemed happy with the close losses but the Cardinals have been too good for that to stick for the next few weeks, at least.

If they are like 3-10 at some point? Then, yeah, the moral victory excitement will return.

“What the hell is wrong with garret Williams? What’s his status? No acl has taken so long. It’s been 11 months since he got injured.” – angrycardsfan

KO: I have no idea about his recovery, but I’ll just say that not all torn ACLs are the same. And this might actually be a good thing. If teams knew he’d be out for much of his rookie year, it could have made his stock drop. Maybe Arizona got good value on him in the third round. We will see.

“What do we need to do in order to win against SF?” – Suz

KO: You’ve got to have your best tackling performance of the season. The 49ers are Kings of the YAC, and they have elite athletes everywhere that are hard to bring down.

If the 49ers get the YAC going, they are going to pile up points, and then they are going to rev up the pass-rush on defense with that lead, and it’s not going to be pretty.

Averaging 12.0 yards per carry for much of the first half wouldn’t hurt either.

😍 pic.twitter.com/hmnVxTWarw

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) September 24, 2023

“Are you related to Martin Ødegaard?” – GrayCorpse

KO: Not that I’m aware, but it would be pretty cool. Fun fact: I randomly get tagged in Arsenal football news every once in awhile because people think I am Martin.

“Are we going to the playoffs with this team, cause “The No Names” say yes” – The Real Neil

KO: I say no.

“I’m following back from a previous question. We are now 1-2. I asked if we could go 2-2 and you shot it down quickly, and perhaps rightly so. Have the winds changed now after three weeks?” – Caleb Anderson

KO: You worded this very kindly because you could have buried me for being so wrong with that original answer. They are 14-point underdogs to San Fran so a 1-3 start is still very likely, but the way it’s gone down has certainly resulted in winds of change.

The Cardinals have led every game heading into the fourth quarter, which means they’re unlucky to be 1-2. As I’ve said a few times in this mailbag, I have an internal battle between on-field results and small sample size, so it’s certainly encouraging, but I want to see a couple more games before really being all-in.

“Best Chimichanga in town?” – Ready Knight

KO: There is one answer, and one answer only: Filibertooooooo’s!