The Arizona Cardinals have been coy about their plans with the No. 3 overall pick in the NFL draft.
Will they trade it or will they keep it?
Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson, Jr. opened as the favorite to be taken at No. 3, which ostensibly meant Arizona would make the pick.
But as of Tuesday evening, Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson surpassed Anderson as the favorite to go No. 3 at FanDuel. Richardson is listed with +125 odds while Anderson sits at +140.
While the odds are close, it’s a shift from last week, when Anderson had -110 odds and Richardson +200 to go No. 3. Arizona has Kyler Murray and is not in the market for a quarterback, so this suggests the possibility of a trade down is increasing.
The Colts at No. 4, the Raiders at No. 7, the Falcons at No. 8 and the Titans at No. 11 are all realistic trade candidates because of their need for a long-term franchise quarterback. The Ravens could also jump into the fray if they trade Lamar Jackson.
Here are the odds of the seven candidates listed to go No. 3:
- Anthony Richardson +125
- Will Anderson +140
- Will Levis +500
- Bryce Young +2000
- C.J. Stroud +2000
- Jalen Carter +2000
- Tyree Wilson +2000
There is also an interesting potential arbitrage opportunity here. DraftKings has unveiled its odds for the No. 3 overall pick, and Anderson is listed as the favorite at -115, while Richardson sits at +150.
While there is always the possibility that Levis or another prospect goes at No. 3, those who stridently believe it will be Anderson or Richardson have an intriguing setup: they can bet on Richardson at DraftKings at the +150 odds and Anderson at FanDuel at +140 odds, which would result in a built-in profit as long as one of the two are chosen.
Levis is also listed at +500 odds at DraftKings, with every other candidate 20/1 or longer, so he seems to be the main competition to Richardson and Anderson. Odds can change quickly, so FanDuel and DraftKings may sync up sooner rather than later when it comes to the player most likely to be chosen No. 3 overall.
The betting markets seem pretty convinced C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young are going 1-2, respectively, as they are both listed at -300 to get drafted in those spots by FanDuel.
Richardson’s stock is on the rise, and it will be interesting to see if he becomes a stronger favorite to go No. 3 as time goes on, or if Anderson will reclaim the title as the most likely player to be selected there heading into the NFL draft.
There are always myriad twists and turns based on reports, betting action and speculation, so this likely won’t be the last time we see significant odds movement for the No. 3 overall pick in the draft.
