The NBA playoffs have arrived, with an action-packed weekend scheduled to kick things off. Here are the keys to each first-round series, with my prediction for how each will turn out.
Eastern Conference
Miami Heat (1) vs Atlanta Hawks (8)
Series odds via BetMGM: Heat -375; Hawks +300
After a fantastic play-in run and performances from Trae Young, the Atlanta Hawks have slipped back into the playoffs in spite of a year marred by injury and inconsistency. While the Hawks had a disappointing year on balance, I’m not sure the general NBA follower recognizes just how good Trae is: He is the best player in this series.
The strides he’s made as an individual scorer on top of his otherworldly court vision and playmaking skills make him a headache for even the best defenses in the NBA. Speaking of defense, the Heat when at their full capacity have been a defensive juggernaut. They trot out lineups that can smother with length and activity, bolstered by their stellar communication and team defense.
I’m so enticed to see the chess match of Trae trying to find cracks or avenues in the Heat defense, and the way Miami adjusts or premediates as well. Kyle Lowry is not a bad defender, but he’s not the player he was a year or two ago on that end. I’d doubt he receives the Trae assignment, but Trae and Atlanta’s coaching staff is likely going to pull him into as many screening actions as possible.
Injuries to John Collins and Clint Capela (suffered a hyperextended knee last night) loom large in series impact.
While the Hawks have been much better than advertised of late (15-9 since the All-Star Break, 5th in offense & 17th in defense per Cleaning the Glass), I’m curious to see how the defense can hold up against a Miami team that can spread the floor with movement shooters and tight actions.
Atlanta can make this a series, but I have real questions about some of their secondary options (De’Andre Hunter needs to have a SERIES). Miami had some bumpy stretches to close the year, but this team has been undersold. I think Atlanta gives them problems, but ultimately isn’t quite there all around to grab this series.
Prediction: I’m taking Heat in 6.
Boston Celtics (2) vs Brooklyn Nets (7)
Series odds: Celtics -140; Nets +115
The Celtics have been the best team in basketball in 2022. Their defense is suffocating and the best unit in the league in the calendar year and since the All-Star Break per Cleaning the Glass. They’re consistent. The offense is ALSO league leading since the ASB. They’re the antithesis of what they were early in the season, flowing in a way that seemed impossible in late November (shoutout to PG Marcus Smart and Derrick White’s addition).
Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving exist, however.
Durant is amidst the best passing stretch of his career, a frightening proposition for defenses, even the best. While he’s not the best passer in the league, to see the court the way he has since returning from injury while being the most deadly scorer in the league; that is enough to make any series interesting.
Irving’s secondary punch makes the Nets’ role players make more sense and better optimized. His movement off the ball is absurd. Whenever you think of Kyrie, you think of the big shots and isolations most likely, but the way he makes his defender work running off of screens and constantly relocating and shifting is so tough.
My biggest questions in this series for both teams:
Can Al Horford hit enough outside shots? It sounds minute, but if he’s not hitting from the corners, or punishing teams for leaving him open above the break, the offense can be a bit boxed in. Kevin Durant’s off-ball defense, particularly as the low-man, has been very darn good this year. I imagine he’ll play on Horford if the Celtics start Daniel Theis & Horford in the starting (they have most of the games since Robert Williams III’s injury). If he can sag off Horford and muck things up at the rim like he’s capable of, that adds another wrinkle to the series.
How do Brooklyn’s role players hold up defensively? Patty Mills, Seth Curry, and Goran Dragic are all varying levels of players with a similar issue. Size. The Nets often employ lineups with two of the three and even alongside Irving. Brooklyn is going to switch most actions not involving Andre Drummond. Can they be just solid enough?
I lean towards the Celtics. I think they have more answers and I trust their consistency and depth more than Brooklyn’s. Again though, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving could make this look silly!
Prediction: Celtics in 6.5
Milwaukee Bucks (3) vs Chicago Bulls (6)
Series odds: Bucks -1100; Bulls +700
Chicago’s season has trended downwards due to injuries that sapped them of some of the magic they had earlier this season. They just haven’t looked right since early January, which just kinda stinks.
Their defensive communication has fallen off a cliff. Their offense, once incredibly potent, has grown stagnant and isolation heavy.
Can a week and a half off to recoup and rest, gameplan, and soul search allow the Bulls to find themselves again? I’m skeptical.
Patrick Williams has added another element with his return. He’s the only player with the size and mobility to even attempt to check Giannis Antetokounmpo. More importantly, can the Bulls be crisp on those secondary rotations like they were earlier this year? Timely help on Giannis with crisp rotations can stifle ~some~ of Milwaukee’s offense. Latent timing is not great against this Bucks squad however!
Brook Lopez has been just about himself again on defense, which should make every team in the East weary. After a year of sending two to the ball and struggling to get stops at the point of attack, Milwaukee has their primary rim protector back, allowing Giannis to operate as a roamer again.
I think this series is more interesting than it’s been given credit for. DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine are as good of a perimeter duo as can be conjured. How does LaVine’s knee hold up though? Can Nikola Vucevic recreate the shooting performance he did against the Bucks in the bubble series with Orlando?
Prediction: I’ll take Bucks in 5.5.
Philadelphia 76ers (4) vs Toronto Raptors (5)
Series odds: 76ers -200; Raptors +165
The Toronto Raptors are a really good basketball team. One more time for those in the back: The Raptors are a really good basketball team!
Nick Nurse is a good coach, but I’ve been a bit frustrated with some of the overwhelming attributions. Yes, he’ll play a significant part in this series, as does any coach. The players play the game. Pascal Siakam has been one of the 10 best players in basketball in 2022. Scottie Barnes could win Rookie of the Year and I wouldn’t bat an eye. Fred VanVleet tapered off due to injury, but he’s been essential to everything the Raptors do.
We did this with the title, and it seems to be happening again with the Sixers series. If the Raptors win, it will be because of great performances from their players and a cohesive gameplan. I find some of the Nurse talk frustrating, as it really undersells how talented this team is. But, enough of my soapbox.
Toronto is going to make life extremely difficult for the Sixers. They’ll get out and run in transition, forcing turnovers, swarming Joel Embiid with mixed coverages. I’m not at all worried about Embiid, however. He’s an MVP candidate for a reason and has made wild strides as a facilitator and scorer.
My issue is what happens when the ball isn’t in his hands? This team has consistently felt short a 5th man to tie together their best lineups, and sure, Danny Green has turned it on lately, but I don’t love being tethered to that. Tobias Harris needs to have a dynamic playoffs, because his play post-Harden Trade has been up and down, ultimately underwhelming.
James Harden after his first four games in Philadelphia: 19.7 points per game on 36.3/29.1/89 splits (55.7% true-shooting however).
The Sixers need Harden to be the player they envisioned that they traded for. Again, another guy who could benefit from the week of rest.
Ultimately, this is one of the harder series for me to predict, but I struggle to bet against Joel Embiid and his play this season. I have questions about their ability to go deep in the playoffs this season, but I have more questions about Toronto’s halfcourt offense. The Raps are 20th in offense since the All-Star Break and 28th in halfcourt offensive efficiency per Cleaning the Glass in the same time frame.
Toronto’s shooting fell off hard after the All-Star Break, and if that can regress to the mean, it’s feasible to think they can cobble together just enough off their patented putbacks and in transition to take advantage in the series.
Prediction: I’ll take the Sixers in 6.5 on the back of a dominant Embiid stretch.
Western Conference
Phoenix Suns (1) vs New Orleans Pelicans (8)
Series odds: Suns -1000; Pelicans +650
I went in-depth on this Pels team recently and there are few teams I’ve enjoyed so thoroughly over the past few seasons. Their play-in run was a joy to watch.
I struggle to see how this goes more than five games outside of some outlier poor shooting stretches from the Suns and torrid play from the entirety of the New Orleans roster.
New Orleans’ defense is predicated on communication and being able to close off the middle of the floor. The Suns are absurdly dynamic from the corners, from the middle, from anywhere in all honesty. They won’t go 5-out in the same way the Clippers were able to that forced the Pelicans to lean more into Larry Nance Jr (great game btw!), but they’re capable of elongating possessions with multiple passes and a flowing offense to attack and get to their openings.
Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum can make things interesting, and former Suns assistant Willie Green knows this team inside and out. They’re going to come correct and gameplanned.
Again, the talent gap is just sizable to me.
Prediction: I’ll take Suns in 5.
Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (7)
Series odds: Grizzlies -375; Timberwolves +300
We get at minimum, four games of Dillon Brooks and Pat Beverley going complete WWE heel on National TV. YES!
This series is one I go back and forth on the most.
The Wolves give up swaths of open 3’s (particularly from the corners) due to their scheme of showing two to the ball and relying on backline rotations to protect the rim. I imagine they’ll either try to force the ball out of Ja’s hands with traps, or force him to gun from deep off the dribble rather than getting into the paint.
Outside of Desmond Bane, what shooter do you trust on this Griz team? De’Anthony Melton has been good from deep this season, but he struggled in the series with the Jazz last year when given open shots. Tyus Jones shot well this year at 39%, but on low volume. Ziaire Williams shot 36.2% on high volume after the All-Star Break, but he’s likely to get the rookie treatment. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a better shooter than his percentages would indicate this season, but you’re only as good as the defense cares to warrant.
Karl-Anthony Towns needs to assert himself as the best player in this series off rip. The Wolves had just about everything go in their favor in the play-in outside of KAT’s game and it felt miraculous in the moment. I believe in him as a playoff player. This season wasn’t a mirage, but if he gets the same defense from the Wolves that the Clippers showcased, we need to see him handle it better.
How do the Wolves handle Morant? He’s going to get to the paint at some point. How does Anthony Edwards look in the playoffs? He brings a dynamism that gives the Wolves a higher ceiling if he’s on his game and balancing his pull-up proficiency and rim runs.
I trust Memphis’ defense and depth more than the Wolves at the moment, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Wolves drag this to 7 and see what happens.
Prediction: I’m going Grizzlies in 6.
Golden State Warriors (3) vs Denver Nuggets (6)
Series odds: Warriors -250; Nuggets +190
Yeah, I have no idea what to think of this series!
Steph Curry hasn’t played since mid-March (probable to play in Game 1).
Klay Thompson finished on a hot stretch, but the last two weeks are so volatile. Can he find a balance of aggression and efficiency?
Jordan Poole has been absolutely on one of late. Since March (21 games) Poole is averaging 24.7 points per game on 47.3/41.9/92.5 splits. He brings a dynamic of secondary shot creation that helps this Warriors team breath in the halfcourt. I mentioned Kyrie Irvin’s off-ball movement earlier, and woah boy, does Poole bring so much of the same.
Kevon Looney likely takes the brunt of the Nikola Jokic matchup with a heavy dose of help and team defense. Looney is good!
Nikola Jokic is the reigning and possibly repeat MVP. He’s even better than he was last year. Can we just stop and appreciate how insane that is? He, Embiid, and Giannis all were candidates last year and got significantly better this year. What a sport, man.
Jokic is just so, so good as a scorer at this point that I don’t really believe you can hope to stop him in a series. He is going to carry this team one way or another. He’ll pick you apart with his passing.
I do have real issues with Denver’s lineup versatility however. They have the ability to shift things, but it’s limited. Can DeMarcus Cousins hit enough shots while also taking advantage of some mismatch opportunities? He was huge in a late season game against Golden State, but when his shot isn’t falling, his impact is lessened. It sounds simple, but he’s not drawing close-outs.
Bones Hyland is a real X-factor in this series. His pick and roll game is essential to the Nuggets’ offense outside the MVP.
So much of this comes down to can the role players make enough shots? Austin Rivers and Jeff Green need to be solid from outside to give the Nuggets more wiggle room.
Will Barton’s had an up and down season on either end. Can he be a significant factor getting to the paint or nailing his pull-ups? Can he add that secondary creator off of Nikola Jokic to add an extra tension point to the Warriors’ defense?
Prediction: I’m going Warriors in 6.5, largely due to my belief in Jokic, but I ultimately lean on the Nuggets being just a bit thin on either end to fully take this series against Golden State.
Dallas Mavericks (4) vs Utah Jazz (5)
Series odds: Jazz -300; Mavericks +240
In an unfortunate turn of events, Luka Doncic will miss game one today and is questionable moving forward due to a calf strain.
This was a really fun season series with an even 2-2 split (Doncic missed the first game and Gobert and Bogdanovic missed the fourth). Yet, without Luka, the Mavs are 8-9 on the season. The drink doesn’t stir the same without him.
As much as I struggle to have faith in a Jazz team that hasn’t seemed to have much faith in itself in 2022, Dallas is a much easier equation to solve without Doncic. Even if he’s back at some point, it seems likely that he’ll be hobbled.
A great deal will depend on game one. If Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie are somehow able to spearhead a victory, I’m more open to what the Mavs could do in this series, but I don’t foresee that, in all sincerity.
Donovan Mitchell is a playoff force, and I expect the Jazz to take game one and establish a rhythm and slight cushion before Doncic can return to the series. Injuries suck and will unfortunately have an impact on the playoffs as a whole, starting with this series.
Prediction: I’ll take Jazz in 5.5 while also noting that Luka Doncic could go absolutely wild and make me look very foolish. I just wouldn’t bet on it, although I really hope he’s able to get healthy over the course of the series to make this interesting.
