Aaron Schatz is no longer with Football Outsiders, but his widely-respected DVOA algorithm has found a new home.
Schatz has partnered with FTN to deliver the ‘FTN Football Almanac 2023’ which is available now.
Schatz’s projection system often goes against the grain when judging teams compared to common perception, and 2023 was no exception.
The Dallas Cowboys are the pick to finish with the most wins in the NFL this season, even though they aren’t even the betting favorites to win the NFC East.
Dallas, which is +190 to win the division at DraftKings, is projected to win 11.1 games this season. The Cowboys reach the Super Bowl an NFL-high 26.9% of the time in simulations and win the Lombardi Trophy a league-best 15.5% of the time.
“Oh my God, I’m going to have to explain this to people,” Schatz told Compare.bet on Monday, when asked about his initial reaction to the projection. “It’s actually what (author) Dan Pizzuta did with the chapter. He started it with, ‘OK, we know we need to explain this.’”
The Cowboys have +1400 odds to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings, which is sixth-best in the NFL as of August 7th.
The teams ahead of them:
- Kansas City Chiefs +600
- Philadelphia Eagles +650
- Buffalo Bills +900
- San Francisco 49ers +1000
- Cincinnati Bengals +1100
Dallas finished No. 6 in Total DVOA last season and is projected to be No. 2 in 2023 behind the Buffalo Bills.
The Cowboys head into the season ranked No. 3 in DVOA on both offense and defense.
“This is one of the best teams in the league,” Schatz said. “They are consistently one of the best teams in the league, and they went out and added themselves a better receiver in Brandin Cooks and a better cornerback in Stephon Gilmore. They should be one of the best teams in the league again.”
Schatz said Dallas’ public perception is hurt because of its playoff failures the past two years, but doesn’t believe that has any predictive power when it comes to this season.
“It’s just one game,” Schatz said. “They don’t have a history of playing badly against good teams. … History is filled with teams that couldn’t get over the hump until the year they got over the hump.”
Schatz points to Peyton Manning and the 2006 Indianapolis Colts as an example.
“Everyone thought they couldn’t do it in the playoffs until the year they did,” Schatz said.
Quarterback Dak Prescott threw a career-high 15 interceptions last season, tying for the league lead in only 12 games. But that was an outlier compared to his career interception rate, and his body of work suggests Dallas is led by an above average quarterback.
“Dak suffers from that same playoff problem, right?” Schatz said. “The big thing people don’t like about Dak is the idea that he can’t win the big games. But he’s won plenty of regular season games, so why won’t he continue to do that? There’s no reason to believe he won’t.”
The Cowboys are switching play-callers from Kellen Moore to head coach Mike McCarthy, and that is something Schatz acklowledges could be detrimental.
It’s the reason he is going with the San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC this season.
“I understand that people are hesitant about the Cowboys because of that, but overall I think things with the Cowboys are strong,” Schatz said.
The reigning NFC East champions and the conference’s Super Bowl participant, the Philadelphia Eagles, have a good projection, but not a great one.
They are projected to win 10.0 games, making the Super Bowl 13.3% of the time and winning it 6.8% of the time.
Schatz expects a bit of regression from last season’s memorable campaign.
“They’re (ranked) a little lower in all three phases,” Schatz said. “Just a little bit. And their schedule is a little harder. Just a little bit. But it all adds together to 10 (wins) instead of 11.1. I think the defense regressing a little bit is more likely than the offense, because that defense improved dramatically.”
Philadephia went from No. 25 in defensive efficiency in 2021 to No. 6 last year. They are projected to have the eighth-best defense in 2023.
“It’s not like we have the defense projected badly, just not as good as Dallas,” Schatz said.
Schatz believes quarterback Jalen Hurts and the offense can have another big year. The Eagles have solid projections, but they are not deemed the NFC favorites heading into the season like they are in the betting markets.
Philly has +250 odds to win the conference and -135 odds to win the NFC East at DraftKings. Dallas has +600 odds to win the NFC.
“(The Eagles and Cowboys) are both really good teams,” Schatz said. “In probably 40% of our simulations, Philly ends up better than Dallas. It’s not like it’s 5%. But more often Dallas ends up better than Philly.”
