Prior to this year, the sight of Bay Area native Aaron Judge in San Francisco around one of the year-end holidays might not have elicited any sort of reaction other than, wow, that’s Aaron Judge.
After all, as a 6-foot-7 former Rookie of the Year winner with a 50-homer season on his resume, Judge couldn’t really slink in and out of public spots. But he could stop home for a Thanksgiving week visit without anyone thinking too much of it.
Not this year.
The fuse for hot stove season was officially lit Monday night, when MLB Network aired a brief clip of Judge arriving at a San Francisco establishment.
“Aaron Judge in San Francisco,” said the camerawoman. “What are you doing in the city?”
“Just visiting some family and friends, that’s about it,” Judge said. “That’s about it.”
“Oh yeah?” said the camerawoman. “Any fun plans?”
“We got something,” a grinning Judge said as he walked away. “Have a good one.”
By “something,” Judge probably didn’t mean a turkey dinner with all the trimmings. But Judge — who grew up about 90 minutes away from San Francisco in Linden — was expected to talk turkey with the San Francisco Giants Tuesday afternoon.
No free agent will feast this winter like Judge, who turned down the Yankees’ seven-year, $213 million contract offer on Opening Day and proceeded to have the greatest walk season of all-time by winning American League Most Valuable Player honors after hitting 62 homers — one more than Roger Maris’ Yankees and American League record — and remaining in contention for the Triple Crown until the final days of September.
DraftKings recently listed odds for 12 contenders for Judge’s services for the remainder of this decade. But in reality, only three baseball teams are likely to be serious suitors for Judge, who seems sure to get a deal worth at least $300 million over at least eight seasons.
- Yankees -165
- Giants +300
- Dodgers +450
- Mets +1000
- Red Sox +1600
- Cubs +2200
- Cardinals +2800
- Angels +2800
- Rangers +3000
- Mariners +7000
- Braves +8000
- Astros +8000
The most remarkable thing about the Judge derby is that it’s a derby at all. The late George Steinbrenner was infamous for going through protracted contract negotiations with homegrown superstars, but he almost always retained the Yankees’ stars. On Thanksgiving Eve 1998, Steinbrenner swooped in and re-signed Bernie Williams just before Williams would have agreed to a seven-year deal with the rival Boston Red Sox.
There’s a better chance of Hal Steinbrenner, George’s son, and general manager Brian Cashman dropping turkeys from the sky outside Yankee Stadium than a similarly dramatic tale playing out tonight.
While it can’t hurt the Yankees that Judge seems particularly loyal — he has stuck with his relatively small agency, PSI, instead of jumping to Scott Boras or another high-powered agent — he also made it clear he was unhappy Cashman announced the terms of the Yankees’ offer in April. At the very least, Judge seems committed to making Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner sweat out his courtship even though both men have already said how much they want him back.
In addition, Judge’s cordial but brief and distant interaction with the camerawoman in San Francisco underlined one of the worst-kept secrets in New York — that he doesn’t exactly love the attention that comes with being a superstar in the Big Apple. Judge, whose most notable endorsement deal was with Subway, isn’t Derek Jeter, who feigned disinterest in the spotlight while doing everything possible to maximize his exposure.
Going home to San Francisco — which has plenty of room in the budget and a desperate need for a lineup-anchoring superstar after the Giants regressed to the mean last season — could allow Judge the opportunity to both get paid and not have to deal with the constant scrutiny.
Judge could also entertain an offer from the Los Angeles Dodgers — who play a 90-minute flight from the San Francisco area — during his visit to California. The Dodgers, of course, have a massive payroll and made the biggest post-lockout splash by signing Freddie Freeman, who seemed to be on track to be a career-long member of the Atlanta Braves at this time a year ago.
The Dodgers also acquired Mookie Betts from the Boston Red Sox and signed him to a 12-year deal worth $365 million just before the start of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. And as is the case with San Francisco, playing in Los Angeles offers a best-of-both-worlds scenario in which Judge is paid market value while avoiding the white-hot spotlight.
While a mystery team can never be ruled out, the other 27 teams — including the New York Mets, who have the money to sign Judge but two big free agents of their own to try and retain as well as an owner, Steve Cohen, who is apparently willing to play nice with Hal Steinbrenner — seem likely to remain on the sidelines with the rest of us, watching Judge’s free agency play out and waiting to see just what “something” is.
