There are lots of elements of American life circa October 1990 that aren’t going to return anytime soon, or ever.
The band Nelson probably isn’t going to return to the top of the singles charts with a worthy successor to “(Can’t Live Without Your) Love And Affection.” Even in reboot-happy Hollywood, an updated version of “Pacific Heights” probably isn’t getting fast-tracked. And a gallon of gas is unlikely to cost $1.32 ever again.
But the New York Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals finishing in last place in the same season? That might happen for the first time in 33 years and only the third time ever.
Even if one or both teams climbs out of the basement, their extended stays in last place — the Yankees have been alone in fifth place in the AL East every day since May 1 while the Cardinals have been alone in the NL Central cellar every day since Apr. 26 — make it increasingly likely the two perennial contenders will both miss the playoffs in the same season for just the third time in the wild card era.
While the Cardinals (13-25) are off to a far worse start than the Yankees (21-17), the NL Central provides St. Louis a decidedly more favorable environment to mount a climb back into contention.
The Cardinals, who began the season as a -125 favorite to win the NL Central, are now at +350, behind the Milwaukee Brewers but ahead of the first-place Pittsburgh Pirates (+700), who are 1-7 this month and have been outscored 47-10.
No team in the division has a winning record this month, when St. Louis’ 3-5 mark leaves them just a half-game behind the Cincinnati Reds. The Pittsburgh Pirates remain in first place despite going 1-8 and being outscored 51-13 since May 1.
The Cardinals entered Wednesday ranked 12th in the majors in runs scored (165) and 20th in ERA (4.48), numbers more in line with a mediocre team than an awful one. Their run differential of minus-15 works out to a similarly meh Pythagorean record of 17-20.
Reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, who is hitting .308 with seven homers and 20 RBIs, is one of five regulars with an OPS+ north of 100. Fellow likely Hall of Famer Nolan Arenado is off to a slow start (.232 with three homers and 18 RBIs) but has a decade’s worth of excellence suggesting he’ll snap out of it sooner than later.
That said, the Cardinals’ mojo seems decidedly off. The team is moving Willson Contreras off of catcher barely one month into a five-year deal. Manager Oliver Marmol, a 16-year veteran of the organization, got into a public sparring match with outfielder Tyler O’Neill regarding the latter’s effort in early April.
And pitcher Jack Flaherty, who has a 6.18 ERA and has been limited to 153 2/3 innings since the start of 2021 due to injuries, declared Tuesday night he was done talking about his fastball velocity.
The Yankees weren’t a bundle of positivity entering the week either. Manager Aaron Boone dropped a couple PG-13 profanities following a 5-4 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays last Friday. Two days later, ace Gerrit Cole frittered away a six-run lead against the Rays in an 8-7 loss on Sunday that dropped New York to 6-10 since Apr. 21.
But the return of reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge for a three-game series against the Athletics — whom the Yankees outscored 28-10 in a sweep — has a way of making it easier to focus on the Yankees being on pace to become the best last-place team of all-time.
Only two teams — the 1991 California Angels and 2005 Washington Nationals — have finished in last place with a non-losing record, and both squads were 81-81. The Yankees are on a nearly 90-win pace, which both explains their diminished chances in a division headed by the scorching Rays as well as their reasonably favorable odds of mounting a deeper postseason run.
As of May 10 at DraftKings, the Yankees’ odds of winning the AL East were +475, third-best in the division behind Rays as well as the Toronto Blue Jays, and down from their front-running odds of +130 as of Opening Day. But their pennant-winning odds (+600) and World Series-winning odds (+1200) are fourth-best in the AL and tied for sixth-best in the majors, respectively.
Of course, even in an expanded playoff field, the Yankees can’t finish last and still make the playoffs. At the least, they’ll need someone from the trio of the second-place Baltimore Orioles, third-place Blue Jays and fourth-place Boston Red Sox to slip back in the pack, but the Orioles have the third-best record in baseball and the Blue Jays and Red Sox have each already mounted winning streaks of six and eight games, respectively.
The Yankees also look a lot like the top-heavy team that staggered to the finish line last season after a torrid start. The drop-off from the middle of the order to the bottom is vast, though Harrison Bader, who homered today and is hitting .429 in his first eight games, could provide some much-needed depth.
Cole was expected to be joined atop the rotation by free agent signee Carlos Rodon, but he’s yet to debut due to a back injury and the Yankees’ non-Cole starters have an ERA of 5.01. And with last year’s lockdown closer Clay Holmes (3.46 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) struggling, Boone said he feels like he has five pitchers who can pitch the ninth, which is the baseball version of a team having two quarterbacks when it actually has none.
These are unfamiliar problems to have for the Yankees and Cardinals, who have combined to make the playoffs 41 times since the wild card was added in 1995. And between their pedigrees and the recent history of NL pennant winners — the last four teams to represent the Senior Circuit in the World Series in a full season all had a sub-.500 record on Memorial Day — it won’t be a surprise if one or both teams is not only out of last place but in the playoffs come the first week of October. But you might want to dig out that Nelson cassingle or see if you can find “Pacific Heights” on streaming, just in case.
