A series of sentences can make it seem like the Arizona Cardinals’ 2021 season was a success, regardless of what happens in the playoffs:
- They made the postseason for the first time since 2015.
- They captured 11 games, a three-win improvement from last year and a third straight season of ascension under coach Kliff Kingsbury.
- They were the NFL’s last undefeated team at 7-0.
Sprinkle in some nuance, however, and that premise falls apart.
After 13 weeks of football, the Cardinals looked like a legitimate Super Bowl contender — talented on both sides of the ball and led by a quarterback playing at an MVP level.
Since then, we have witnessed a shocking slide. Arizona had a 95.2 percent chance to win the NFC West on December 6, but an improbable 1-4 finish allowed the Rams to leapfrog them and claim the division.
The Cardinals had a 95.2% chance to win the NFC West a month ago. Epic collapse.
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) January 10, 2022
Those two teams face off on Monday night in the wild card round, and if the Cardinals can’t pull the upset in Los Angeles, the season can only be viewed as a failure.
There are precious few chances to be a title contender in the NFL, but the biggest cheat code is to draft a quarterback who emerges as a star by Year 2 or Year 3.
The Cardinals have that in Murray, who, with a cap hit of just $9.8 million, has delivered a mountain of surplus value this season.
Murray’s rookie deal allowed GM Steve Keim to spend lavishly at other positions, and the fruits of that setup were evident early on.
With recent talent infusions like All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins and All-Pro center Rodney Hudson playing a pivotal role, the Cardinals’ offense was as potent as any in the NFL.
The addition of J.J. Watt on defense gave some teeth to an interior pass-rush that had gone dormant since the departure of Calais Campbell after the 2016 season.
But all three of those stars were sidelined for a significant chunk of the final stretch, and even with a better salary cap situation than most other teams, the Cardinals’ lack of depth showed.
While the Packers soldiered on without star cornerback Jaire Alexander and star tackle David Bakhtiari for most of this season, Arizona couldn’t handle the loss of key personnel.
The lack of playmakers on offense was striking in Sunday’s 38-30 loss to the Seahawks. Murray averaged a meager 6.2 yards per pass attempt, as no skill player on the field struck fear into Seattle.
The pass defense, so strong in the early part of the season, was a mess because of injuries at cornerback.
Imagine being the Cardinals, having an opportunity to win the NFC West, and then putting forth this performance lol
— Joe Fann (@Joe_Fann) January 9, 2022
Some of these issues were predictable.
Keim went heavy on older players this offseason, and it’s not a surprise that Watt and cornerback Robert Alford got hurt, while wide receiver A.J. Green’s play tailed off as the season went on.
Standout cornerback Stephon Gilmore was available for trade early in the year, but the Cardinals chose not to fortify such an important position.
The Cardinals have an opportunity to salvage their season with a couple weeks of solid football, and the optimists have a puncher’s chance at being right.
Zach Allen recovers Russell Wilson's fumble and returns it for the #Cardinals TD!#SEAvsAZ #NFL #NFLTwitter #RedSea #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/6HyvB8vnLQ
— Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) January 9, 2022
Arizona has a pair of good game-planners in Kingsbury and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph.
Murray’s mobility is always a threat, and if dynamic running back Chase Edmonds can return against Los Angeles, heavy zone-read action can be weaponized to great effect in the playoffs.
The defense still has its share of stars, led by edge rusher Chandler Jones, safety Budda Baker and safety Jalen Thompson.
This isn’t a last-gasp push for a title. Murray will be cheap again next season and is entering his athletic prime, so the Cardinals’ window remains open.
But Keim kicked a lot of money onto the 2022 cap during free agency, and added more by acquiring tight end Zach Ertz via trade midseason.
The Cardinals went all-in this year, hoping to pounce on a great opportunity to win a Super Bowl.
If the result is a first-round playoff exit, any talk of progress will ring hollow.
