2023 NFL Playoff Preview: Predicting a Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl

The Cincinnati Bengals made a Cinderella run to the Super Bowl last season, finishing perilously close to a championship.

They fell short against the Rams, but this team is more talented, more balanced and primed to make another deep playoff fun.

How deep? I think they win it all.

Here are the Super Bowl odds for the top five contenders, via BetMGM on January 13, and I like Cincinnati’s value the best:

• Chiefs +325
• Bills +375
• 49ers +450
• Eagles +500
• Bengals +750

Here is a round-by-round prediction for the postseason where you can see how I arrive at this conclusion.

Wild Card Weekend Predictions

NFC: 49ers def. Seahawks; Cowboys def. Buccaneers; Vikings def. Giants

I’ve got the NFC remaining chalk in the wild card round, with all three favorites advancing. I think San Francisco will roll against Seattle, while Dallas and Minnesota win by about a touchdown margin apiece. 

The conference is top-heavy this year, and the only three teams with a realistic shot at the Super Bowl are the Eagles, 49ers and Cowboys, which sets up an intriguing divisional round.

I'm only taking one underdog to advance from wild card weekend.

Check out my predictions: https://t.co/vmxt5VBX7G

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) January 13, 2023

AFC: Jaguars def. Chargers; Bengals def. Ravens; Bills def. Dolphins

The lone underdog I predict to advance to the divisional road is Jacksonville, which is a slight home underdog against the Chargers this weekend. The Bengals and Bills are going to breeze past their opponents, setting up a juicy matchup next week.

Divisional Round

NFC: Eagles def. Cowboys; 49ers def. Vikings

The Cowboys have looked like contenders at times this season but aren’t playing their best ball as the playoffs approach. The Eagles have also hit a bump in the road, but much of that had to do with the injury to star quarterback Jalen Hurts. 

Philadelphia is the deeper team and can win games in different ways. I think this game will be competitive, but the Eagles are the pick to knock off Dallas.

Haason Reddick was named NFC Defensive Player of the Month for December/January.

He had eight sacks from Weeks 13-18. The Eagles edge rusher finished the season with 16 sacks and 5 forced fumbles.

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) January 12, 2023

The 49ers are not going to have any trouble at all with Minnesota. The Vikings are a threat in record only, as their point-differential and advanced stats show a paper tiger. San Francisco will win this one by double-digits to set up a heavyweight NFC Championship showdown.

AFC: Chiefs def. Jaguars; Bengals def. Bills

A lot of people will be expecting a showdown between the Chiefs and Bills in the AFC Championship game. Kansas City won’t have much trouble moving on against an outmanned Jaguars team, but Cincy is going to spoil it by playing a complete game to knock off Buffalo in a classic.

Damar Hamlin’s injury postponed the regular season showdown, and this incredibly-hyped matchup will have people buzzing in the days following its conclusion. Josh Allen is a load to handle but can also make mistakes, and inaccuracy on the big stage will ultimately haunt him as he gets outplayed by Burrow.

Championship Round

NFC: 49ers def. Eagles

These are two similarly-built teams,with strong running games, efficient passing attacks and stingy defenses. The Eagles have the advantage at quarterback, but I think the San Francisco defense is talented enough to keep Hurts in check.

The 49ers might have a rookie seventh-round pick at quarterback, but Brock Purdy has done a sensational job managing the game since taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo. The skill group is dominant and the Eagles’ pass-rush is going to be mitigated in this matchup by San Francisco’s ability to get the ball out quick and make plays after the catch.

49ers QB Brock Purdy was named the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Month for December/January.

What an incredible ride it’s been for the Gilbert, AZ product.

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) January 12, 2023

AFC: Bengals def. Chiefs

The Chiefs have an elite offense, finishing No. 1 in efficiency on that side of the ball once again in 2022, but they are not as balanced as the Bengals. Even though Kansas City should be able to score, it’s also going to give up points to Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and the other stars on the Cincinnati offense.

The difference is going to be the playmaking ability of the Bengals’ defense. Trey Hendrickson and others will come up with big plays at opportune times. It’s not feasible to stop the Chiefs’ offense, but shootouts can come down to a big turnover or defensive touchdown, and that is going to tip the scales in this one to get the Bengals back to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl LVII

A showdown between San Francisco and Cincinnati would really be a fantastic Super Bowl matchup. The 49ers are the hottest team in the NFL right now and the Bengals are right on their heels.

San Francisco will once again rely on a strong running game and defense to keep this one competitive throughout, but the quarterback gulf will be too big to overcome.

Top five teams in @fboutsiders weighted DVOA (how they played down the stretch) heading into the playoffs:

1. 49ers
2. Bills
3. Chiefs
4. Bengals
5. Eagles

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) January 13, 2023

Burrow will likely finish second in the MVP voting, and will show in this game that perhaps he needs to be mentioned right alongside Mahomes as the best signal-caller in the NFL.

Burrow said the championship window is going to be open as long as he’s playing, and that’s absolutely correct. The confident quarterback shocked the NFL world by getting his team to the Super Bowl in Year 2, and he’s going to add a ring in Year 3.

Super Bowl Prediction: Bengals 24, 49ers 20