It’s imperative to step your game up in the playoffs, which is why I put together an undefeated week in prop betting during the wild card round.
Let’s get ready to chalk up four more wins as the Divisional Round gets rolling on Saturday.
Here is one prop bet for each game of the weekend slate:
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes under 39.5 pass attempts (-118 at FanDuel)
The Jaguars are No. 30 in DVOA against the pass this season, which means Mahomes may be having a field day on Saturday. I expect him to throw a lot early on and be extremely efficient, as a double-digit yards-per-attempt figure is not out of the question.
However, I think Mahomes will be so good that the Chiefs take their foot off the gas pedal late and run the ball to kill clock. Mahomes reached 40 pass attempts in only seven out of 17 games this season, and only went over 43 passes once this season.
Kansas City is a 9-point favorite and I am taking them to cover, meaning this game could be a double-digit margin in the second half. I think Mahomes will be great, but I don’t think it will take a ton of volume for him to dominate.
Giants WR Isaiah Hodgins over 40.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
The 2020 sixth-round pick has been a revelation since being added on waivers midway through the season, as Hodgins had 29 catches for 310 yards and four touchdowns with the Giants down the stretch.
He was great against the Vikings, hauling in eight passes for 105 yards and a score on nine targets. Hodgins played 92% of the offensive snaps and figures to get that full-time role once again in Philadelphia.
The Eagles have a great cornerback duo in Darius Slay and James Bradberry, as well as a lethal pass-rush. That’s why this number is low, but the Giants are also 7.5-point underdogs, which means they could be passing a lot in the second half.
Hodgins, Darius Slayton and Richie James all have similar yardage over/unders in this game. But Slayton could see Slay the most and James won’t be in the game when the Giants only use two receivers, which is why I have the most faith in Hodgins to surpass his total.
Daniel Jones is playing good football and has developed a nice rapport with Hodgins, which is why I like him to reach at least 41 receiving yards in this matchup.
Bengals RB Joe Mixon over 46.5 rush yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Cincinnati has some key injuries on the offensive line, and keeping the Buffalo pass-rush from revving up will be important. That’s where Mixon comes in, as some efficient runs on the ground will keep the Bills honest.
Buffalo is No. 3 in DVOA against the run this season, so it won’t be easy to rack up the yards, but I also think the Bills are going to be much more concerned about Joe Burrow and the air attack than what the Bengals do on the ground.
Mixon’s over/under on projected rush attempts is 12.5, and if he does end up in that neighborhood, a 4.0 yards-per-carry average would be enough to hit the over on this bet.
The Bengals are the underdogs, but I think they can win this game. If Cincy leads late, Mixon will get some carries where he can continue to add to his rushing total and go over this number.
My Ja’Marr Chase over 6.5 receptions pick last week hit easily, and hopefully Ohioans using their free bets can cash in on Mixon as well.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott over 34.5 pass attempts (-113 at Caesars)
The 49ers are No. 2 in the NFL against the run, and because Tony Pollard is great, I think San Francisco would be happy to make Dak Prescott throw the ball a lot, which could lead to aerial mistakes.
Prescott has been inconsistent this season but was very good last time out against the Buccaneers, and Dallas will need him to play well in order to win this game. He has attempted 35 or more passes in four of the past six games and I see that continuing here.
I believe the Cowboys are going to throw the ball more than projected on neutral play-calls, and I think the late game-script will also lead to a need for pass attempts, as I expect the 49ers to be winning in the fourth quarter.
Prescott is a good quarterback and I think his right arm will be prominently involved in this matchup, which is why I like him to reach 35 attempts.
Prop Bets Record Last Week: 3-0
Overall: 86-80
