Free agency has slowed down and at this point we have a good idea of team needs as the draft approaches.
That being said, it’s still hard to know how the draft will play out, beginning at the top. Here is my latest mock draft with the first round only two weeks away.
1. Carolina Panthers: QB Bryce Young, Alabama
Young is the most polished quarterback in the draft. Even though others might have more ideal size or athleticism, he has great accuracy and impressive processing speed. His betting odds of going No. 1 are -360 at DraftKings.
2. Indianapolis Colts (via Houston Texans): QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
Compensation: No. 4 overall, 2023 2nd-Round Pick, 2024 2nd-Round Pick
There is some talk of Houston passing on a quarterback at No. 2. I would be shocked if a signal-caller doesn’t go in this spot because of the positional value, but in this scenario, the Texans trade down to grab some draft capital while Indy makes a move for the 1B quarterback of the draft, Stroud.
3. Tennessee Titans (via Arizona Cardinals): QB Anthony Richardson, Florida
Compensation: No. 11 Overall, 2023 2nd-Round Pick, 2024 1st-Round Pick, 2024 2nd-Round Pick
The Titans have shed a bunch of players this offseason and are in clear rebuild mode. Maybe Ryan Tannehill stays one more year or maybe he is jettisoned. Either way, drafting the uber-athletic Richardson would fit in well with Mike Vrabel’s philosophy in Tennessee.
4. Houston Texans: QB Will Levis, Kentucky
The Texans need to get a quarterback this cycle because GM Nick Caserio has to get the team on a good trajectory to keep his job. If they like Levis and Richardson, there is no harm in dropping down to this spot while adding a pick or two.
5. Seattle Seahawks: Edge Will Anderson, Alabama
The draft falls perfectly for Seattle, which gets the best non-quarterback prospect at 5. The Seahawks looked like they were in major rebuilding mode a year ago, but all of a sudden, the future is bright.
6. Detroit Lions: CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
The Lions dealt Jeff Okudah to the Falcons this week and need someone to replace him. This pick will likely be between Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez. The betting markets have Witherspoon as the -180 favorite to go before Gonzalez, and that’s good enough for me.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: G/T Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
The Raiders could use plenty of help on the offensive line. Skoronka has positional versatility and upside.
8. Atlanta Falcons: DT Jalen Carter, Georgia
How far will Carter fall? It’s one of the main questions of the draft. The Falcons have added a lot of talent this offseason, and with the top four quarterbacks off the board, they take arguably the most talented prospect.
9. Chicago Bears: T Paris Johnson, Ohio State
The Bears are hoping to shoot up toward competitiveness in 2023. The offensive line could stand to be upgraded and Johnson would help.
10. Philadelphia Eagles: Edge Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
Do the Eagles have a bunch of good players in the trenches? Yes. Has that ever stopped them from adding to the group? No.
11. Arizona Cardinals: CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon
Arizona has a lot of holes, which is why this trade-down move makes sense. Offensive line can be addressed on Day 2, as the best decision here is taking the highest-rated prospect at a premium position. Gonzalez would fit that bill.
12. Houston Texans: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
If Houston goes quarterback earlier, it makes sense to add to the wide receiver group, especially after dealing Brandin Cooks this offseason.
13. New York Jets: DL Lukas Van Ness, Iowa
There has been plenty of focus on the offense amidst all the Aaron Rodgers trade chatter. The defense is ascending and Van Ness would only add to it.
14. New England Patriots: Edge Myles Murphy, Clemson
A lot of people choose New England to zig and zag in the draft because it has a unique thinker at the helm in Bill Belichick. This would be a pretty standard pick, but I think Murphy would be helpful on that defense.
15. Green Bay Packers: T Broderick Jones, Georgia
The quarterback is a young one in Packer-Land. Green Bay can give Jordan Love some protection by taking a tackle that can grow with him
16. Washington Commanders: TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
The Commanders have a pretty good skill group already and a talented tight end like Kincaid would add to it.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Joey Porter, Jr., Penn State
Patrick Peterson has been added, but he is not a long-term solution. Porter would be a natural fit on the defense.
18. Detroit Lions: Edge Nolan Smith, Georgia
The upgrade to the defense continues with the selection of Smith, who could team with Aidan Hutchinson as a strong pass-rushing duo for years to come.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: G O’Cyrus Torrence, Florida
The Buccaneers have a lot of needs as they rebuild. It’s never a bad thing to add to the offensive line.
20. Seattle Seahawks: WR Zay Flowers, Boston College
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett remain a top-tier duo at wideout. Flowers would only strengthen that group and give Geno Smith another prime target.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
Tight end has been my choice for the Chargers in every mock draft.
22.Baltimore Ravens: CB Deonte Banks, Maryland
The Ravens seemingly always have lockdown corners. Marlon Humphrey is still the main man in Baltimore but Banks would fit right in as the No. 2.
23. Minnesota Vikings: QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
The Vikings feel like they are in purgatory with Kirk Cousins. Good enough to be competitive, not good enough to make a deep playoff run. Hooker gives them an intriguing option for the future, but Minnesota can be patient with him.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: DT Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh
The Jaguars keep adding to their defense with Kancey, the undersize but explosive prospect.
25. New York Giants: WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
Darren Waller has been added but the Giants could still use more pass-catching weapons. Johnston is a bit of a polarizing prospect but could be good value here.
26. Dallas Cowboys: DB Brian Branch, Alabama
I originally listed Michael Mayer for the second time here, but have been told cloning is not yet available. Cowboys go with some secondary help instead.
27. Buffalo Bills: WR Jordan Addison, USC
Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis are a talented duo. Nothing wrong with adding a third playmaker for Josh Allen.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: DT Mazi Smith, Michigan
Cincy has a pair of talented defensive tackles in B.J. Hill and D.J. Reader. But the salary cap is going to get tight soon following extensions for Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, so adding Smith on a rookie deal would be helpful for the future.
29. New Orleans Saints: DT Bryan Bresee, Clemson
The Saints have a very good defense but could use some help on the interior. Bresee would fill that void.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
The Eagles have the talented but injury-prone Rashaad Penny as the starting running back following the departure of Miles Sanders. Robinson could be good value here and would be another premium playmaker for a team loaded with them.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: OT Darnell Wright, Tennessee
The Chiefs would be pretty happy with this situation. Wright is a talented guy and tackle is a need following the departure of Orlando Brown.
