There are several talented quarterback prospects available in the NFL draft this year, which means QB-needy clubs may be angling to trade up.
Here are my initial thoughts on how it will all go down, as trades kickstart the draft.
1. Houston Texans (via Chicago Bears): QB Bryce Young, Alabama
Compensation: No. 2 overall, second-round pick (No. 33 overall), fifth-round pick (No. 136 overall)
The Texans won their final game of the season, which dropped them a spot to the second pick. Even though C.J. Stroud and Will Levis are intriguing quarterbacks, Bryce Young is the gem of the class and Houston can’t afford to tempt fate by standing pat.
Houston trades up to get its guy, while the Bears gladly drop a spot, pick up an extra second-rounder and still have their choice of the two elite defensive prospects.
2. Chicago Bears: Edge Will Anderson, Alabama
Chicago has plenty of holes, and this could come down to Anderson or stud defensive tackle Jalen Carter. The Bears traded away Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn this season and badly need someone who can rush the passer.
Anderson has long been seen as the crown jewel of non-quarterback prospects and would be a franchise lynchpin at a crucial position.
3. Indianapolis Colts (via Arizona Cardinals): QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
Compensation: No. 4 overall, second-round pick (No. 35 overall)
Like the Texans above them, the Colts choose to move up a spot in order to get their guy. Will Levis is an intriguing player but in the end I think Stroud’s performance at an elite school will give him the edge.
Indy will almost certainly take a quarterback in the first round and giving up a second-rounder to secure Stroud is a small price to pay if he becomes their long-awaited cornerstone.
4. Arizona Cardinals: DT Jalen Carter, Georgia
The Cardinals may be in rebuild mode, so adding a second-round pick while still getting one of the two elite defensive prospects would be a great scenario.
I think Anderson would be the most ideal because Arizona has a massive hole at edge-rusher, but if Zach Allen isn’t re-signed, the defensive tackle spot is just as barren. The Cardinals need a lot of help in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
Carter is the no-brainer choice here if the draft falls this way, as he is a game-changing presence up front.
5. Seattle Seahawks: Edge Myles Murphy, Clemson
It’ll be very interesting to see what Seattle does at 5. Geno Smith was a revelation this year and should be re-signed, but is he the guy for the long-term, or do the Seahawks make a play for a quarterback?
Levis and Anthony Richardson are available in this mock, but I think Seattle believes in Geno and will instead choose a potential game-changer on the edge. The Seahawks’ rebuild went extremely fast and this team is looking to compete in 2023.
6. Detroit Lions: QB Will Levis, Kentucky
Another team with an interesting choice. The difference here is that the Lions have a bunch of young pieces on offense, and adding a rookie quarterback could put them on a rocket-ship trajectory toward contention.
Jared Goff is a solid enough quarterback but the upside isn’t the same as someone like Levis. This would be a big swing, and I wouldn’t blame Detroit at all for choosing one of the top non-quarterback prospects, but Levis’ potential is too intriguing to pass up.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: OT Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
The Raiders need a quarterback, but the oddsmakers believe Tom Brady could be in play for Las Vegas. If he ends up there, offensive line will be of the highest priority. Skoronski is the best of the bunch and makes plenty of sense for Las Vegas, which has skill players but needs better protection.
8. Atlanta Falcons: QB Anthony Richardson, Florida
The Falcons badly need a quarterback, and they have been linked to Lamar Jackson if he ends up leaving Baltimore. That doesn’t seem likely, and so they go with a high-ceiling but raw prospect in Richardson.
I think the Falcons are feeling the pressure to make a splash this offseason, and with three quarterbacks already off the board, they make a daring play for Richardson.
9. Carolina Panthers: DE Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
The Panthers would love to add a quarterback but it doesn’t happen in this mock. Wilson would be a nice addition to a defense that already has a plethora of young, talented pieces.
Brian Burns, Wilson and Derrick Brown would be an impressive trio on the defensive front, giving Carolina a chance to slow down opposing offenses while they try to make hay on that side of the ball themselves.
10. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia
James Bradberry has been fantastic this season, but he’s a free agent at the end of the season. Ringo has unreal physical skills and would enter a great situation with the Eagles.
Philadelphia doesn’t have very many holes on the roster and can take a shot at a high-upside prospect like Ringo, who could eventually take over for Darius Slay as the team’s shut-down cornerback.
11. Tennessee Titans: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
Tennessee missed A.J. Brown badly this season, and even after drafting Treylon Burks last season, needs a lot of help at receiver.
The top wideout prospect on the board is still available at 11, and I have to think they take a long look at the Ohio State product. Smith-Njigba might be best-suited for the slot, but wherever he lines up, he is a playmaker.
12. Houston Texans: Edge Lukas Van Ness, Iowa
The Texans went for a quarterback at the top of the draft and will likely look closely at the wide receivers, but in the end I think defense will be the play. There are a host of intriguing cornerbacks, while Van Ness would also fill a big hole on the edge.
Houston has a lot of holes so finding the best player at a premium position is the way to go, and Van Ness fits the bill.
13. New York Jets: OT Paris Johnson, Ohio State
The Jets are putting together some nice pieces on offense, waiting for a franchise quarterback to take them to the next level. There is no quarterback worthy of being selected here, so they continue the trend by grabbing a top-tier offensive line prospect.
No matter who ends up under center in 2023, New York needs to make sure that player is protected.
14. New England Patriots: CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
The Patriots were good on defense again in 2022 despite the defection of star cornerback J.C. Jackson. However, it is time to replenish the position with Jackson and Stephon Gilmore gone.
Witherspoon could end up as the best cornerback in the class.
15. Green Bay Packers: WR Jordan Addison, USC
Will Aaron Rodgers be in Green Bay next season? Who knows, but either way, the Packers still need to replenish the wide receiver room.
Rookie Christian Watson made strides as the year went on, and adding an explosive talent like Addison would be enticing.
16. Washington Commanders: CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon
The Commanders could really use some help at cornerback and there are options in this draft. Gonzalez has good size and athleticism. It may take him a little while to get up to speed in the NFL, but the upside is evident.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Joey Porter, Jr., Penn State
This is too perfect, right? Joey Porter Sr. was a menace for the Steelers and now his son may get drafted by the team. The Steelers need help on offense but there is nothing wrong with continuing to stack talent on defense, especially at a premium position like cornerback.
18. Detroit Lions: RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
Christian McCaffrey gave the 49ers’ offense a jolt after being added midseason, which may be the ammunition needed to get Robinson into the top-20. There is no questioning his talent, but teams are loathe to take running backs too high in the draft.
However, the Lions could use a talent infusion at the spot. Defense may be the more pressing need in Detroit, but adding another special playmaker to an offense brimming with them could supercharge the Lions.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OT Broderick Jones, Georgia
Donovan Smith is a solid player, but will be 30 next season and on the final year of his contract. The Bucs have a key building block in All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs and getting another one would be a boon for the future.
Jones is a good run-blocker and athletic enough to excel in pass protection as well.
20. Seattle Seahawks: G O’Cyrus Torrence, Florida
The Seahawks made two huge additions to the offensive line in last year’s draft, as Charles Cross and Abe Lucas seem to have the tackle spots locked down for the foreseeable future.
The interior could still use some help and Torrence seems to fit Seatte’s physical style. He is an aggressive run-blocker, and while the pass protection needs some work, the Seahawks would upgrade the interior with this selection.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
The Chargers need to find the next level on offense to become contenders. The wide receiver duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams is solid, and adding Kincaid as another weapon for Justin Herbert would be ideal.
Los Angeles has a critical year upcoming, and flooding the offense with playmakers makes a ton of sense.
22. Baltimore Ravens: WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
Wide receivers are not exactly rushing to play in Baltimore’s run-heavy offense, which is why continuing to draft them is key. Johnston has a great combination of speed, height and body control, which is perfect for the Ravens and Lamar Jackson.
23. Minnesota Vikings: CB Emmanuel Forbes, Mississippi State
Patrick Peterson had a nice season in 2022 but his career is winding down. The Vikings could use some more youth at cornerback and Forbes is a ballhawk capable of making an early impact.
Minnesota should be competitive next season, so finding a plug-and-play rookie would help.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Brian Branch, Alabama
The Jaguars have some good, young players up front on defense but need help in the secondary. Branch can do a lot of different things and would be a welcome addition to a Jaguars team that is clearly ascending.
25. New York Giants: LB Trenton Simpson, Clemson
There is no doubt the Giants would like to get a receiver early in the draft, but no one jumps out to me here. Simpson is a playmaker who might be getting downgraded because of the position he plays.
Despite making the playoffs this season, New York could use help at various spots, and Simpson would be a nice piece to plug in on defense.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Edge Will McDonald IV, Iowa State
The Cowboys have a fearsome pass rush already, but this move would give them another young building block alongside Micah Parsons.
As the Eagles have shown, you can never have too many pass-rushers. Wide receiver is a possibility here but I like the value of grabbing McDonald.
27. Buffalo Bills: DL Bryan Bresee, Clemson
The Bills have thrown a bunch of resources at their defensive line, so why stop now? The group could still use reinforcement and Bresee is a high-upside pick who would get the chance to learn from some very talented players.
The Bills will be experiencing a cap crunch the next couple of years and getting a cheap, productive defensive tackle would help ease that pain.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
Cincinnati has the best wide receiver trio in the NFL, and adding Mayer to the mix would give Joe Burrow yet another target in the passing game. He is a solid blocker who could also help in the run game.
Mayer is a polished player who could make an immediate impact for a Bengals team intent on making another deep run in 2023.
29. Denver Broncos: Edge Nolan Smith, Georgia
The Broncos dealt Von Miller and Bradley Chubb in back-to-back years and need to replenish this group. Smith has all the tools to be an upper-tier pass-rusher, and the Broncos have to take some risks on prospects like this in order to get back on the winning track.
30. Kansas City Chiefs: WR Kayshon Boutte, LSU
Patrick Mahomes is a wizard who will win MVP this year with a very average receiving corps. For that reason, Kansas City may choose to look elsewhere in the draft, but Boutte seems like the type of catch-and-run receiver that would be a natural in the Chiefs’ offense.
31. Philadelphia Eagles: DT Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh
The Eagles have a lot of veterans on the interior of the defensive line, along with rookie Jordan Davis. Kancey is an intriguing player who could help them transition once longtime stalwarts like Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox move on.
