As reports get released and speculation swirls, NFL draft betting odds seem to be in constant flux.
There could be several twists and turns in the final days, but with the draft now less than a week away, let’s take a look at the current betting market, and what it possibly portends for the draft.
Here is how the first 10 picks of the draft would unfold if every team took the current favorite listed at FanDuel as of April 21. (Note: Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson is a -115 favorite to be a top-5 pick, but is actually not the current favorite at any pick, so he slid out of the top-10 in this exercise.)
1. QB Bryce Young, Alabama
Team holding pick: Carolina Panthers
Odds: -1200
Other candidates: C.J. Stroud +800; Anthony Richardson +2500; Will Levis +7500
The Carolina Panthers traded up to No. 1 and seem locked in on Young as their quarterback of the future. While his height and frame are not ideal, Young’s production at Alabama was great, and his ability to process is expected to serve him well as a professional. The draft gets much murkier from here, but Young does seem to very likely to be on his way to Carolina.
2. Edge Will Anderson, Alabama
Team holding pick: Houston Texans
Odds: +230
Other candidates: Tyree Wilson +240; Levis +270; Stroud +320; Young +1100; Richardson +2000; Jalen Carter +2000
Every prospect is an underdog to go No. 2, as the betting markets are truly unsure of where Houston heads with this decision. It looks like a four-player race between edge rushers Anderson and Wilson, along with quarterbacks Levis and Stroud. It’s not out of the realm for Houston to trade this pick away, but in this exercise would stand pat and take Anderson.
3. QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
Team holding pick: Arizona Cardinals
Odds: +250
Other candidates: Richardson +300; Anderson +300; Wilson +430; Levis +1000; Christian Gonzalez +1500
If the first two picks are Young and Anderson, the oddsmakers expect Arizona to trade out of this pick. Stroud, who was the favorite to be the top overall choice for several weeks following the Panthers trade, could be the object of another team’s affection if he remains on the board. Anthony Richardson is another quarterback that could be tempting for teams that need a franchise-changing player at the game’s most important position. The Cardinals’ roster is terrible, and trading down makes the most sense provided someone makes a fair offer.
4. QB Will Levis, Kentucky
Team holding pick: Indianapolis Colts
Odds: -125
Other candidates: Stroud +250; Richardson +410; Anderson +750; Wilson +1600; Carter +4000; Gonzalez +4000; Devon Witherspoon +5000; Young +5000
Levis is now the odds-on favorite to land with Indianapolis at No. 4. The Colts likely don’t need to move up to grab him, which could take one potential suitor away from Arizona at No. 3. It will be quite interesting if every other quarterback besides Young remains on the board when the fourth pick comes around, because Indy could then decide between Levis, Stroud and Richardson.
5. Edge Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
Team holding pick: Seattle Seahawks
Odds: +250
Other candidates: Anderson +250; Richardson +350; Stroud +700; Carter +800; Levis +1200
If the Texans take Anderson at 2, then Richardson could still be on the board at No. 5. Does Seattle have enough faith in Geno Smith to pass on him? Only time will tell, but the oddsmakers believe the most likely scenario is for the Seahawks to add an impact edge rusher in either Wilson or Anderson. With Anderson off the board, we send Wilson to Seattle.
6. CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
Team holding pick: Detroit Lions
Odds: -135
Other candidates: Carter +410; Gonzalez +470; Wilson +1000; Richardson +1200; Stroud +2200; Levis +2900; Bijan Robinson +3000
Another odds-on favorite, which is pretty rare this deep in the draft. But it feels like the Lions are fine with Jared Goff under center, and cornerback is a big need. Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez are both expected to be available, with the betting markets majorly favoring Witherspoon. Carter could be an option but he’s still an underdog to go here.
7. CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon
Team holding pick: Las Vegas Raiders
Odds: +250
Other candidates: Witherspoon +350; Paris Johnson +380; Peter Skoronski +600; Wilson +800; Levis +1100; Stroud +1100; Richardson +1600; Carter +1600; Broderick Jones +2500; Darnell Wright +3400; Robinson +4000.
The Raiders might be tempted to go with a quarterback, and Richardson remains on the board here. However, Gonzalez is seen as a sticky cover man with All-Pro tools, and Las Vegas could definitely use the skill bump on defense. It’s hard to forecast this far out, so some of the underdog picks could be intriguing to bettors, especially if Las Vegas trades up for a signal-caller.
8. Edge Nolan Smith, Georgia
Team holding pick: Atlanta Falcons
Odds: +250
Other candidates: Robinson +300; Lukas Van Ness +600; Carter +800; Wilson +900; Stroud +1000; Gonzalez +1400; Witherspoon +1400; Myles Murphy +1400; Johnson +2000; Levis +2600; Skoronski +3000.
The Falcons have improved their team in many different facets this offseason. The quarterback position is still a big question mark as Desmond Ridder prepares to take over full-time. Could Atlanta be in the signal-caller market if one drops? Possibly. But the betting markets also believe an edge rusher like Smith or a superstar running back like Robinson will be in play.
9. DT Jalen Carter, Georgia
Team holding pick: Chicago Bears
Odds: +300
Other candidates: Wright +300; Skoronski +350; Johnson +450; Jones +1400; Robinson +1500; Van Ness +1600; Jaxon Smith-Njigba +2000; Gonzalez +2000; Witherspoon +2500.
Is this where the slide ends for Carter? He was largely seen as the most talented prospect in the draft after the season but off-field issues and a poor Pro Day has hurt his stock. Darnell Wright has identical odds while three other offensive linemen follow, so the oddsmakers certainly believe Chicago will address the trenches with its pick.
10. G/T Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
Team holding pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Odds: +200
Other candidates: Johnson +400; Smith +500; Carter +600; Van Ness +650; Robinson +750; Gonzalez +1200; Murphy +1600; Jones +2000; Witherspoon +2000
The Eagles can go best player available because their roster is so stout. The oddsmakers think the trenches is the most likely choice, with the versatile Skoronski leading the way. Robinson at 10 is quite intriguing though, if Philly chooses to add another playmaker on offense.
