It’s playoff time. The first round has several games with large spreads, as the oddsmakers expect many of the heavyweights to advance with ease.
But there are some intriguing football games on the docket, and let’s be honest: even games with 13.5-point spreads are exciting to watch when there is money on the line.
Here are my super wild card weekend picks against the spread:
Seattle Seahawks (+9.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Saturday, January 14th at 4:35 p.m. ET
The Seahawks are a great story, advancing to the playoffs when everyone thought they would be among the worst teams in the NFL. And while Geno Smith did a nice job this year, I believe the 49ers defense is going to overwhelm him in this game.
San Francisco is No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA, meaning it is playing better than anyone in the NFL right now. The 49ers are going to flex their muscle early in the postseason by boat-racing the Seahawks.
Score prediction: 49ers 28, Seahawks 13
Pick: 49ers -9.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, January 14th at 8:15 p.m. ET
Duvallllll. The Jaguars are another Cinderella story, but this isn’t the final chapter. I’m a bit surprised that the Chargers are this big of favorites. It feels like more of a pick ‘em to me.
Los Angeles is getting healthier but the overall body of work does not show that this is an elite team, and Mike Williams’ absence — what are you doing, Brandon Staley?? — is a big one.
The Jaguars are an ascending team playing at home, and Trevor Lawrence is going to be ready for the biggest moment to date of his NFL career. Jacksonville is my pick to cover, and to pull the upset at +120 odds on the moneyline.
Score prediction: Jaguars 24, Chargers 23
Pick: Jaguars +2.5
Miami Dolphins (+13.5) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 15th at 1:05 p.m. ET
This game would have been fun with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, but Skylar Thompson at quarterback does not give anyone much confidence that Miami can hang around. The Dolphins have their pair of star wideouts, but the Bills have a really good secondary, and the defensive front is going to cause problems.
On the flip-side of the coin, I don’t see how the Dolphins slow down Josh Allen and the Bills. I think this one will get ugly, as Miami is going to be playing from behind early on and it might snowball.
Score prediction: Bills 31, Dolphins 14
Pick: Bills -13.5
New York Giants (+3) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, January 15th at 4:40 p.m. ET
The Giants are yet another great story, and the oddsmakers are certainly giving them a chance to pull the upset against the Vikings. Minnesota finished the season 13-4 but had a negative-3 point-differential, which is really hard to do!
If this was a better wild card team like, say, the Cowboys, the Vikings would be finished. But the Giants are also a team that took advantage of some close wins to get into the playoffs.
Minnesota is the better team and I like it to both win this game and cover the spread.
Score prediction: Vikings 27, Giants 20
Pick: Vikings -3
Baltimore Ravens (+9) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, January 15th at 8:15 p.m. ET
Lamar Jackson is not going to play barring a miraculous recovery, as it seems likely Tyler Huntley gets the nod at quarterback. He often gives Baltimore a fighting chance at hanging in games, but I don’t see that being the scenario here.
The Bengals finished the season No. 5 in team efficiency, as both sides of the ball are playing at a high level. Without their most important player, the Ravens’ offense is not going to be able to score efficiently, and the defense can’t hold up forever against Joe Burrow and his elite weapons.
Cincinnati is primed to make another deep run this postseason, and should start it off with an easy win on Sunday Night Football. This could be a double-dip for Cincy fans. They get to enjoy a win as well as cash in on some of those free bets now that sports gambling is legal in Ohio.
Score prediction: Bengals 27, Ravens 16
Pick: Bengals -9
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, January 16th at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Cowboys are only slight favorites, which surprises me. The Buccaneers have looked off throughout the year and needed a late win over the freaking Panthers to win the division.
Maybe Tom Brady can turn back the clock and lead Tampa Bay on a run, but I think the Bucs are cooked. Dak Prescott has been struggling lately, and if he is careless with the ball, Tampa has the players on defense to take advantage.
But I think Dallas will play well offensively and win this matchup while also covering the spread.
Score prediction: Cowboys 26, Buccaneers 20
Pick: Cowboys -2.5
Last week’s record: 7-8
Overall: 130-118-7
