We have some fantastic matchups on tap for the NFL Divisional Round.
Here are my picks against the spread for each game:
Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, January 21st at 12:30 p.m. ET
Maybe the Jaguars will be able to bottle that second-half performance against the Chargers and push the Chiefs to the brink, but I doubt it. Jacksonville has one of the worst defenses in the NFL according to Football Outsiders, and I can’t see that group slowing down Patrick Mahomes.
It’s going to be on the offense to keep up, and while Trevor Lawrence has made huge strides in his second season, this task will be too tall. I like Kansas City to win this game comfortably to set up a heavyweight matchup in the AFC Championship Game against either the Bengals or Bills.
Score prediction: Chiefs 30, Jaguars 20
Pick: Chiefs -8.5
New York Giants (+7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Saturday, January 21st at 4:15 p.m. ET
I might kick myself for relying on the eye test, but the Giants sure looked good against the Vikings. The wide receiver group is a bunch of no-names, and yet, New York was positively cruising against Minnesota. This spread feels too big to me, as the Giants are up to No. 10 in offensive DVOA on the year and should be able to put up some points.
The shoulder injury to Jalen Hurts seemed to sap some of Philly’s greatness late in the year, and the group is still fighting to get that back. I like the Eagles to advance but the Giants can keep this within a touchdown.
Score prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 21
Pick: Giants +7.5
Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 22nd at 3 p.m. ET
I’m only choosing one upset in the Divisional Round, and here it is. The Bills are solid favorites to win this game, but it feels like much more of a toss-up to me, which makes Cincinnati’s moneyline odds of +200 quite intriguing.
The Bengals’ defense played great once again last week and the team is No. 4 in the NFL in weighted DVOA, which calculates how well a team is playing at that given time, heading into this matchup.
I think the Bills have a slightly more talented overall roster, but in a game like this, quarterback play is huge. Joe Burrow doesn’t have the same freaky athleticism as Josh Allen but he makes better decisions and is more accurate.
I think Allen is going to turn the ball over a time or two in this matchup, allowing the Bengals to pull off the upset.
Score prediction: Bengals 27, Bills 24
Pick: Bengals +5.5
Dallas Cowboys (+4) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, January 22nd at 6:30 p.m. ET
The Cowboys bounced back in a big way in the wild card round, as Dak Prescott showed he’s still among the better quarterbacks in the NFL when he’s on. However, I do not like this matchup for Dallas.
The Cowboys are great at getting pressure on the opposing quarterback, but that is going to be mitigated by San Francisco’s elite running game. When the 49ers do throw, rookie Brock Purdy is going to be helped massively by coach Kyle Shanahan’s schematics, keeping him mostly out of harm’s way.
If Dallas can get ahead it has a good shot of staying there, because San Francisco would be taken out of its comfort zone, but I don’t see that happening. The 49ers are the better all-around team and I think they move on to the NFC Championship Game with a win while also covering the spread.
Score prediction: 49ers 24, Cowboys 17
Pick: 49ers -4
