I recorded my first losing record of the season in Week 5.
Let’s be better in Week 6. Odds courtesy of FanDuel on October 12th, 2023.
Denver Broncos (+10.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Thursday, October 12th, 2023
The Broncos don’t just have the worst defense in the NFL, it’s historically bad.
They can’t stop the run or the pass. Not great news going against Patrick Mahomes.
The Chiefs aren’t the same juggernaut of a couple years ago but they should roll.
Score prediction: Chiefs 34, Broncos 20
Pick: Chiefs -10.5
Baltimore Ravens (-4) vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, October 15th, 2023
The Ravens look vastly superior to me, as they are No. 2 in defensive efficiency and No. 11 on offense. It was a bad loss last week to the Steelers but this is a good team.
The same cannot be said for the Titans, who have a quarterback (Ryan Tannehill) and a running back (Derrick Henry) that are struggling.
I like the Ravens to go to London and pick up this win while covering the spread.
Score prediction: Ravens 23, Titans 16
Pick: Ravens -4
San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, October 15th, 2023
This spread has shot up the past few days, and with good reason. The 49ers are a juggernaut, while Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson seems unlikely to play due to injury.
With a healthy Watson the Browns may have had a chance to stick with the 49ers, but now this could get ugly.
Even against a great defense I think the 49ers will find their way offensively, while the Browns struggle to move the ball all afternoon.
Score prediction: 49ers 27, Browns 14
Pick: 49ers -8.5
Washington Commanders (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 15th, 2023
The Commanders and Falcons are built a bit differently but both sit a tad below average as overall teams.
Sam Howell has been up-and-down this season but he’s still better than Desmond Ridder, while Atlanta has the advantage in personnel elsewhere.
I think this is a toss-up game and will take the points, as the margin could easily be a point or two.
Score prediction: Falcons 23, Commanders 21
Pick: Commanders +2.5
Carolina Panthers (+13.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 15th, 2023
It’s the best offense in the NFL against a putrid defense that might be without Brian Burns and Derrick Brown. Miami sometimes gives it back on the defensive side of the ball, but Carolina quarterback Bryce Young is struggling badly.
This is going to be lopsided, but the point spread has gotten too high for me. It’s backdoor cover time for the Panthers.
Score prediction: Dolphins 34, Panthers 21
Pick: Panthers +13.5
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, October 15th, 2023
The Vikings are about an average team despite their 1-4 record. However, the loss of Justin Jefferson is huge.
In normal weeks that would be a cause for huge concern, but the Chicago pass defense is really bad, and a veteran quarterback like Kirk Cousins should be able to take advantage.
Score prediction: Vikings 27, Bears 21
Pick: Vikings -3
Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 15th, 2023
Gardner Minshew is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL but this is a tough task, going to his former home to play the Jaguars.
Jacksonville is finding a groove on both sides of the ball and should win this one rather easily.
Score prediction: Jaguars 26, Colts 18
Pick: Jaguars -4.5
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, October 15th, 2023
The Texans keep improving and could end up one of the surprise teams in the NFL this year behind standout rookies C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson.
The Saints are a big test, though, with one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Stroud is a burgeoning star but I think he will look like a rookie in this one.
Score prediction: Saints 21, Texans 16
Pick: Saints -1.5
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, October 15th, 2023
Man, this one is tough to judge. If Joe Burrow looks like he did in Arizona, then the Bengals will win.
But the Seahawks are a much more talented team than the Cardinals and have played well in recent weeks.
Seattle is the pick in a mini-upset.
Score prediction: Seahawks 24, Bengals 20
Pick: Seahawks +2.5
New England Patriots (+2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, October 15th, 2023
This could be an ugly game with two below average quarterbacks facing off.
New England stinks this season but at least the defense has the potential to step up.
I don’t really want to pick either one to win this game but I’ll take the points and hope for the best.
Score prediction: Patriots 19, Raiders 17
Pick: Patriots +2.5
Detroit Lions (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 15th, 2023
The Buccaneers’ defense is good enough to keep the Lions from dominating, so it’s up to Baker Mayfield to continue his solid play.
Will it happen? I’m not buying it.
Aidan Hutchinson and friends will get pressure and force Mayfield into mistakes, evoking ghosts of Mayfield past.
Score prediction: Lions 24, Buccaneers 17
Pick: Lions -3
Arizona Cardinals (+7) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 15th, 2023
The bloom is off the rose for the Cardinals’ defense, which is now third-worst in the NFL in DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. Arizona has serious cornerback issues, and the Rams just so happen to have Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to contend with.
The Cardinals will need to make their hay on offense but it’s too much to ask for Josh Dobbs, who is starting to show why he’s bounced around NFL teams for much of his career.
Score prediction: Rams 30, Cardinals 20
Pick: Rams -7
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at New York Jets
Sunday, October 15th, 2023
The Jets like to run the ball and play tough defense, but this is not the right matchup. Philly hardly gives up anything on the ground because its defensive front is so stout.
The game will then be in Zach Wilson’s hands, which is never ideal.
The Eagles have not put it all together this season despite an undefeated start. They will here.
Score prediction: Eagles 28, Jets 17
Pick: Eagles -7
New York Giants (+14.5) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 15th, 2023
The Giants stink, and half their team is hurt. Not a great combo!
The Bills have trouble with decent opponents but have no issue rolling up the margin of victory against cellar-dwellers.
Score prediction: Bills 33, Giants 13
Pick: Bills -14.5
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, October 15th, 2023
I won’t put too much stock into last week. I won’t put too much stock into last week.
I won’t put too mu–
Screw it. The Cowboys are fried. Go Bolts.
Score prediction: Chargers 27, Cowboys 23
Pick: Chargers +2.5
Last Week: 6-8
Overall Record: 43-33-2
