Not a dominant showing last week but another one over .500 as we keep chugging along.
Here are my Week 5 NFL picks against the spread. Odds via BetMGM on October 5th.
Chicago Bears (+6.5) at Washington Commanders
Thursday, October 5th, 2023
The Bears are the worst team in the NFL but I don’t think Washington is that much better. Chicago’s defense has been a sieve and if Sam Howell has a good performance the Commanders can win this game by a touchdown or more.
But I don’t trust Howell. I’ll take Chicago to keep this one close.
Score prediction: Commanders 24, Bears 20
Pick: Bears +6.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 8th, 2023
The Jaguars have been up-and-down early in the year but I still believe in the talent. Just not this week.
Buffalo is No. 1 overall in Total DVOA, including top-3 on both offense and defense. Jacksonville has enough firepower to keep pace for awhile, just not all the way through.
Score prediction: Bills 31, Jaguars 24
Pick: Bills -5.5
Houston Texans (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 8th, 2023
How about ‘dem Texans? Houston is fifth in the AFC in point-differential at plus-17 and quarterback C.J. Stroud is the favorite to win Rookie of the Year after a fantastic start.
Will Anderson, meanwhile, is in the top-3 in both pass-rush win rate and run-stop win rate, per ESPN. This is an ascending team and I’ll take Houston to win again on the road against the struggling Desmond Ridder.
Score prediction: Texans 23, Falcons 20
Pick: Texans +1.5
Carolina Panthers (+10) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, October 8th, 2023
The Panthers have been terrible on offense and not much better on defense this season. Bryce Young shouldn’t be declared a bust anytime soon but he’s struggling early, and a lack of weapons isn’t helping.
Detroit is clearly the superior team and I think this matchup gets sideways.
Score prediction: Lions 28, Panthers 16
Pick: Lions -10
Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 8th, 2023
The Colts have been quite competitive this season and rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson is already doing some impressive things.
Like almost every AFC South matchup this one feels like a toss-up, so I’ll grab the points and roll with the home underdog.
Score prediction: Colts 21, Titans 20
Pick: Colts +1.5
New York Giants (+11.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 8th, 2023
The Dolphins’ Greatest Show on Surf was beached a little bit last week by Buffalo, but this is a much easier matchup.
It’s hard to see New York slowing down the Dolphins, as the Giants are No. 27 in defensive efficiency through four games. And if they get behind, the NFL’s worst offense isn’t going to rally.
Score prediction: Dolphins 33, Giants 17
Pick: Dolphins -11.5
New Orleans Saints (-1) at New England Patriots
Sunday, October 8th, 2023
These are two very similar teams. Good defenses, meh offenses.
The Saints might have slightly more talent but once again I’m happy to take the home underdog.
Score prediction: Patriots 20, Saints 17
Pick: Patriots +1
Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 8th, 2023
The Steelers’ offense is among the worst in the NFL and quarterback Kenny Pickett is now dealing with an injury.
The Pittsburgh defense is good, but if Baltimore gets ahead early on it can lean on the running game.
Lamar Jackson has been great this season and the quarterback disparity is too great. I’m rolling with the Ravens.
Score prediction: Ravens 27, Steelers 17
Pick: Ravens -4
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 8th, 2023
The Eagles might be 4-0 but they haven’t yet looked like the same dominant team of last season.
If the pass-rush gets revved up then Philly should cruise, but Matthew Stafford is playing some really good football. Cooper Kupp might be back for this one, and I like the Rams to keep it close throughout on the strength of their passing game.
Score prediction: Eagles 26, Rams 23
Pick: Rams +4.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 8th, 2023
The Bengals are struggling badly on offense right now, as star quarterback Joe Burrow continues to deal with a lingering calf injury. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are an almost-unbelievable No. 6 in offensive efficiency through four games.
Will these things hold?
I don’t think so. Burrow is getting healthier and I expect a breakout against a suspect cornerback group in Arizona.
Score prediction: Bengals 27, Cardinals 21
Pick: Bengals -3
New York Jets (+2.5) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 8th, 2023
The money is pouring in on the Jets as I guess there is newfound belief in Zach Wilson.
No, thanks. As bad as the Broncos are, they have the better quarterback, and even this porous defense should be OK against Wilson. I’ll take Denver to win a close one.
Score prediction: Broncos 24, Jets 21
Pick: Broncos -2.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 8th, 2023
Interesting that the line is this low, but clearly the Vikings are better than their 1-3 record would indicate.
Kirk Cousins should be able to move the ball offensively and I don’t get the feeling the Chiefs will run away with this game.
I think it could be a very competitive affair as Minnesota has a solid home field advantage.
Score prediction: Chiefs 27, Vikings 24
Pick: Vikings +4
Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, October 8th, 2023
The Cowboys are a very good team but they are running into a buzzsaw. The 49ers’ offense looks unstoppable right now, and Dallas’ greatest strength, its pass-rush, should get mitigated by San Francisco’s run-heavy scheme.
The 49ers are going to distance themselves as the clear team to beat with a solid win over the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.
Score prediction: 49ers 26, Cowboys 20
Pick: 49ers -3.5
Green Bay Packers (-1) at Las Vegas Raiders
Monday, October 9th, 2023
I think it’s clear the Packers are a very average team this year, but that’s still a step up from the woeful Raiders.
Green Bay’s defense could thrive in this matchup and lead the Packers to the victory.
Score prediction: Packers 21, Raiders 17
Pick: Packers -1
Last Week: 9-7
Overall Record: 37-25-2
