This is an interesting week, as there are several betting lines that surprised me.
Will that result in a banner showing because I know more than the oddsmakers? Probably not, but hope springs eternal.
Odds via BetMGM on September 27:
Detroit Lions (-1.5) at Green Bay Packers
Thursday, September 28th, 2023
The Packers have a solid overall team and Jordan Love’s numbers have been good so far but he’s also been inaccurate at times. This is the type of game in which one big mistake gets amplified because the teams are close in talent level.
I think Jared Goff will be more careful with the ball as Detroit sneaks out a win and a cover.
Score prediction: Lions 20, Packers 17
Pick: Lions -1.5
Atlanta Falcons (+3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 1st, 2023
The Jaguars have been one of the bigger disappointments in the NFL through three weeks as the offense has really struggled. But the tape guys I trust don’t think Trevor Lawrence has any huge underlying issues.
Jacksonville should get back on track in this one and finally look like a playoff team.
Score prediction: Jaguars 24, Falcons 17
Pick: Jaguars -3
Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 1st, 2023
Very interesting line here. I get that Buffalo has been a powerhouse for several years now and gets this game at home. But I’m not willing to bet against an offense that has been historic through three weeks, especially considering the Dolphins are the underdogs.
Rolling with Miami has been fruitful so far and I’m taking the Dolphins again in Week 4.
Score prediction: Dolphins 35, Bills 31
Pick: Dolphins +2.5
Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, October 1st, 2023
The Broncos are a bad football team but the Bears are a special type of bad. Chicago seems ready to rip apart at the seams and a blowout loss in this one could start affecting the job security of the coaches.
Denver has more talent and better coaching, which should result in a win and the cover.
Score prediction: Broncos 27, Bears 20
Pick: Broncos -3.5
Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, October 1st, 2023
The Browns’ defense has been devastatingly effective so far this season, but Lamar Jackson is a different type of challenge to bottle up. The Baltimore running game needs to be on point in this one, and I think it will be.
Cleveland could make a big statement with a win over the Ravens but I don’t see it happening. Moneyline odds of +125 for a Baltimore win is too enticing to pass up.
Score prediction: Ravens 24, Browns 21
Pick: Ravens +3
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, October 1st, 2023
Joe Burrow has been a shell of himself so far this year and is still dealing with an injury, but this is one of those spreads that surprises me. I love the fact that a field goal margin results in a cover for Cincinnati, which is the much more talented team.
The Bengals’ defense will do some of the heavy lifting and another week of recuperation should have Burrow playing better in Tennessee.
Score prediction: Bengals 26, Titans 20
Pick: Bengals -2.5
Los Angeles Rams (+1) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 1st, 2023
The Colts and Rams have both played better than many expected heading into the season. Indy certainly has the better all-around team but Los Angeles has the two most valuable players on the field in Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald.
I’ll take some high-end play from that duo and roll with the tiniest of upsets.
Score prediction: Rams 21, Colts 17
Pick: Rams +1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 1st, 2023
Jameis Winston seems likely to get the start for Derek Carr, but even with a backup at quarterback I’m comfortable riding with New Orleans in this game.
Its defense should give Baker Mayfield fits, and Winston is good enough to move the ball. Turnovers are always the concern and if Tampa gets some well-timed ones this game could be close, but I think the Saints will have a conservative game plan and outlast the Buccaneers.
Score prediction: Saints 21, Buccaneers 17
Pick: Saints -3.5
Washington Commanders (+8.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, October 1st, 2023
It doesn’t feel like the Eagles are hitting on all cylinders yet but they just may against Washington. The defense should make life miserable for Sam Howell, while Philly has offensive answers to anything the Commanders try to do defensively.
I smell a blowout.
Score prediction: Eagles 34, Commanders 16
Pick: Eagles -8.5
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 1st, 2023
The Vikings are much better than their 0-3 record would suggest and they should be able to get back on track here.
The defense is the major concern but going against rookie quarterback Bryce Young makes it an easier task.
In a battle of winless teams, Carolina will stay there following Sunday’s result.
Score prediction: Vikings 27, Panthers 17
Pick: Vikings -3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Houston Texans
Sunday, October 1st, 2023
The Texans picked up an impressive road win against the Jaguars last week and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is playing quite well. So, too, is Will Anderson, who is No. 2 in the NFL in pass-rush win rate among edge rusher behind only Micah Parsons.
The Steelers have the better defense but I think Houston keeps it rolling with a home win.
Score prediction: Texans 20, Steelers 19
Pick: Texans +3
Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, October 1st, 2023
The Chargers have the No. 3 offense in DVOA and quarterback Justin Herbert is playing extremely well. The defense is an issue but shouldn’t be this week against a Raiders team that may not have Jimmy Garoppolo, who is in the concussion protocol.
I like the Chargers to roll in this one behind a dominant offensive display.
Score prediction: Chargers 28, Raiders 20
Pick: Chargers -5.5
New England Patriots (+7) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, October 1st, 2023
The Patriots are a delightfully mediocre team that likely won’t win this game. However, the coaching matchup is hugely lopsided in favor of New England, and I think the Patriots can hang around in this one.
Score prediction: Cowboys 23, Patriots 17
Pick: Patriots +7
Arizona Cardinals (+14) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, October 1st, 2023
The Cardinals were double-digit underdogs against the Cowboys last week and pulled off the upset.
Can they do it again (or at least move to 4-0 against the spread on the year)? I don’t think so.
The 49ers’ elite skill guys will be hard for Arizona to handle, and if San Francisco gets ahead its pass-rush can tee off on Joshua Dobbs.
Score prediction: 49ers 30, Cardinals 13
Pick: 49ers -14
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at New York Jets
Sunday, October 1st, 2023
The Jets have a really talented defense, which doesn’t matter at all with Zach Wilson at quarterback.
This spread is lopsided and it should be even moreso, because even elite defenses can’t handle Patrick Mahomes for four quarters. The Chiefs should roll.
Score prediction: Chiefs 28, Jets 14
Pick: Chiefs -9.5
Seattle Seahawks (+1) at New York Giants
Monday, October 2nd, 2023
I’m slightly shocked the Giants are favored in this game. The Seahawks are No. 4 in offensive efficiency this season while the Giants have looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Seattle is the easy choice. So easy that I’m second-guessing if I’m missing something here.
Score prediction: Seahawks 27, Giants 20
Pick: Seahawks +1
Last Week: 8-7-1
Overall Record: 28-18-2
