Ah, yes, the train is rolling now.
A 12–3-1 week has me feeling like a genius, and Week 3 better not kill my vibe.
I guess I’m in control of that. Here are this week’s picks against the spread. Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
New York Giants (+10.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Thursday, September 21st, 2023
The Giants stink. The 49ers are great. Any more questions?
I think the San Francisco pass-rush is going to make life miserable for Daniel Jones, while the 49ers’ bevy of playmakers overwhelm New York.
The first two Thursday Night Football games have been fun. This one could be a dud, which is where betting comes in. Games are never boring with money on the line.
Score prediction: 49ers 33, Giants 16
Pick: 49ers -10.5
Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, September 24th, 2023
This could be an entertaining game that tells us a lot about both teams. The Lions have the better passing game but the Falcons are superior in many other phases.
I think Detroit wins because of the quarterback advantage but I’m happy to take the Falcons at this spread because the margin could very well be a field goal.
Score prediction: Lions 27, Falcons 24
Pick: Falcons +3.5
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, September 24th, 2023
The Commanders are 2-0 and quarterback Sam Howell had a superb showing last time out against the Broncos, but this is a different type of test.
The Bills’ defense will force him into mistakes, while Washington’s defense won’t be good enough to keep Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Co. in check.
Score prediction: Bills 26, Commanders 17
Pick: Bills -6.5
Denver Broncos (+6.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, September 24th, 2023
The Miami Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL through two weeks. The Broncos have one of the worst defenses.
You know where this is headed.
Russell Wilson needs to dominate to keep Denver close, and I don’t think it happens.
Score prediction: Dolphins 34, Broncos 24
Pick: Dolphins -6.5
Houston Texans (+8.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, September 24th, 2023
Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has shown flashes of promise, so Houston has that going for it. But trading away next year’s first-round pick looks more disastrous by the day.
The Texans are big underdogs in this game and I expect Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville offense to get back on track in an easy win.
Score prediction: Jaguars 27, Texans 17
Pick: Jaguars -8.5
Indianapolis Colts (+8.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, September 24th, 2023
It’s unclear at this point if Anthony Richardson (concussion) will be able to play on Sunday. It would be fun to watch him against Lamar Jackson, but Gardner Minshew is a solid enough backup plan.
The Colts have a decent roster, and while Baltimore should win, I bet Indy pulls off the cover.
Score prediction: Ravens 28, Colts 21
Pick: Colts +8.5
Los Angeles Chargers (+1) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, September 24th, 2023
These are two teams I would have liked to bet on in Week 3, because their 0-2 starts aren’t indicative of the talent level.
Alas, they play each other, and the oddsmakers believe it’s basically a toss-up.
The Chargers have been really good on offense and terrible on defense. I’d expect Justin Herbert to continue moving the ball, while maybe Joey Bosa or Khalil Mack can step up against the immobile Kirk Cousins.
Also, these two teams are so goofy that a tie wouldn’t be out of the question, so I’m rolling with Los Angeles.
Score prediction: Chargers 28, Vikings 24
Pick: Chargers +1
New England Patriots (-2.5) at New York Jets
Sunday, September 24th, 2023
The Jets continue to roll with Zach Wilson, which remains a very bad idea. The Patriots aren’t a great team by any stretch but they do have a functional offense.
However, New York’s defense is very good and I like the Jets to make enough game-changing plays on that side of the ball to help spring the upset.
Score prediction: Jets 20, Patriots 17
Pick: Jets +2.5
New Orleans Saints (+2) at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, September 24th, 2023
I’m in on the Packers. Jordan Love is top-5 in Total QBR through two weeks and the team is No. 6 in DVOA.
The Saints have won a pair of close games but are far from a powerhouse.
Score prediction: Packers 23, Saints 20
Pick: Packers -2
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, September 24th, 2023
Deshaun Watson continues to look like a shell of his former self, which feels great to write. The Browns lost star running back Nick Chubb to a season-ending knee injury against the Steelers and he won’t be easily replaced.
The Titans are not a good team but they know how to play close games.
Score prediction: Browns 21, Titans 19
Pick: Titans +3.5
Carolina Panthers (+6.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, September 24th, 2023
Bryce Young may not a play for the Panthers, which is a bummer. The supporting cast on offense kinda stinks, and I like that a touchdown margin gives us a Seattle cover.
The Seahawks proved their mettle with last week’s road win over the Lions and should cruise in this one at home.
Score prediction: Seahawks 27, Panthers 17
Pick: Seahawks -6.5
Chicago Bears (+13) at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, September 24th, 2023
It’s been an absolute debacle through two weeks in Chicago. This spread is huge, and I’m sure a lot of people will be jumping on the Chiefs, but I like the Bears.
Kansas City has yet to dominate offensively, and while this is a good matchup against a questionable Chicago defense, I don’t think the Chiefs will run away with this one.
Look for Justin Fields to make enough plays with his legs to keep the Bears surprisingly competitive.
Score prediction: Chiefs 30, Bears 20
Pick: Bears +13
Dallas Cowboys (-12.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, September 24th, 2023
The Cardinals have been impressive despite an 0-2 start, going down to the wire against the Commanders and Giants.
But this NFC East team is not like those others. The Cowboys have a hellacious defense and a quality offense. This is a true Super Bowl contender, and Arizona is going to be feeling the pain on Sunday afternoon.
Score prediction: Cowboys 27, Cardinals 10
Pick: Cowboys -12.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, September 24th, 2023
The Steelers are kind of a mess offensively. Second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett is struggling and it took a huge defensive effort against the Browns to come away with a win last week.
But Las Vegas might be the right team to cure those ills, as it has one of the worst defenses in the league.
I could see either team winning this game so I’ll take the underdog.
Score prediction: Steelers 23, Raiders 21
Pick: Steelers +2.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, September 25th, 2023
The Buccaneers have exceeded expectations with a 2-0 start and Baker Mayfield has actually been good.
But Philly is on another level. This might be a lower-scoring affair than most believe, but in the end the Eagles’ terrific roster depth will win out.
If the Bucs can get a defensive touchdown this game will get interesting, but my guess is that the Eagles take care of the ball and wear down Tampa Bay.
Score prediction: Eagles 24, Buccaneers 17
Pick: Eagles -4.5
Los Angeles Rams (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals
Monday, September 25th, 2023
Joe Burrow’s availability is the big question mark. The star quarterback injured his calf and seems unlikely to play.
While Cincinnati has the more well-rounded team, the Rams would have a big quarterback advantage with Matthew Stafford should Burrow sit.
That’s enough for me to take the underdog here.
Score prediction: Rams 23, Bengals 20
Pick: Rams +3
Last Week: 12-3-1
Overall Record: 20-11-1
