The first week is in the books, and I’m exactly where I started.
It was an 8-8 week to open, but now with a little bit of intel, it’s time to cook.
Here are my picks against the spread for Week 2 of the NFL slate, starting with an upset win by the underdog Minnesota Vikings on Thursday Night Football against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM:
Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Thursday, September 14th, 2023
The Vikings are 0-1 but they outplayed the Buccaneers in their opener. The Eagles, meanwhile, had some offensive issues despite pulling out a win in New England.
Minnesota needs to be able to run the ball in this game so Kirk Cousins isn’t under constant pressure. If the Vikings stay balanced, I think the offense can find success.
As good as Jalen Hurts was last season, I think he’s due for some passing game regression. The Eagles are the superior team but an upset could happen here.
Score prediction: Vikings 24, Eagles 23
Pick: Vikings +6.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, September 17th, 2023
I appreciate that this spread has dipped below a field goal margin. I liked the Chargers anyway and now even moreso.
Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill struggled in the opener, and while the Los Angeles defense has some work to do after getting diced up by the Dolphins, this is a much better matchup.
On the flip-side, I think Justin Herbert will be able to move the ball through the air against Tennessee. As long as Titans running back Derrick Henry doesn’t go off, the Chargers will get back on track here.
Score prediction: Chargers 24, Titans 20
Pick: Chargers -2.5
Green Bay Packers (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, September 17th, 2023
I guess the oddsmakers weren’t that impressed by the Packers’ shellacking of the Bears, but I was. Jordan Love is better than Desmond Ridder. I am confident in this.
The Falcons have some talent but so do the Packers, so give me the better passing game.
Score prediction: Packers 23, Falcons 20
Pick: Packers +1.5
Indianapolis Colts (+1) at Houston Texans
Sunday, September 17th, 2023
Are either of these teams truly among the worst in the NFL? It’s very possible, and if one gets blown out in this matchup, it’s not a good sign.
C.J. Stroud was picked before Anthony Richardson in April but I think the dual-threat signal-caller will have a bigger impact in this matchup.
I like the Colts on the road.
Score prediction: Colts 20, Texans 17
Pick: Colts +1
Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, September 17th, 2023
The Seahawks have some major issues at offensive tackle, and Aidan Hutchinson could have a big game.
The Lions have a lot of talent up and down the lineup, as we saw against the Chiefs, but I think Seattle simply laid an egg in its opener against the Rams.
I like Geno Smith to outplay Jared Goff in this one to keep the Seahawks close.
Score prediction: Lions 26, Seahawks 24
Pick: Seahawks +4.5
Chicago Bears (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, September 17th, 2023
Are the Bears terrible? That wasn’t the conversation all offseason but it is now. The Bucs, meanwhile, picked up a nice road win over the Vikings in their opener.
Justin Fields has taken a lot of heat the past week but I think he will bounce back against Tampa Bay by making some plays with his legs.
Baker Mayfield has a good matchup against a bad Bears defense, but he’s still Baker Mayfield.
Score prediction: Bears 24, Buccaneers 20
Pick: Bears +2.5
Las Vegas Raiders (+8.5) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, September 17th, 2023
Is Jimmy G better than we thought? As someone who watched him in person many times while he played for the 49ers, the answer is no. No, he is not.
The Bills’ defense is going to get after Garoppolo and Josh Allen will have a course correction in this one.
Look for Buffalo to get back on track in a big way in Week 2.
Score prediction: Bills 27, Raiders 16
Pick: Bills -8.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, September 17th, 2023
The Chiefs should be getting back Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, their two most important players besides Patrick Mahomes.
The Jaguars are a good team that is playing at home so an upset is possible, but I think the Chiefs receivers redeem themselves here.
Kansas City is the pick to get back on track with a solid win.
Score prediction: Chiefs 30, Jaguars 24
Pick: Chiefs -3.5
Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, September 17th, 2023
I’m not too worried about the dud of an opener for the Bengals. Joe Burrow and this offense has a great track record and should be better this week.
But this is still a tough matchup and I like this spread since the Ravens could lose by a field goal margin and still cover.
I think Lamar Jackson will make enough plays to keep the Ravens close.
Score prediction: Bengals 27, Ravens 24
Pick: Ravens +3.5
New York Giants (-4.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, September 17th, 2023
The Cardinals are not good. But I don’t think the Giants are, either.
This should be a defensive battle with turnovers likely deciding the winner. Give me the plucky home underdog to not only cover the spread but pull off the upset.
Arizona won’t be winning much this season but this is doable.
Score prediction: Cardinals 19, Giants 17
Pick: Cardinals +4.5
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, September 17th, 2023
The Rams blew away expectations in the opener, but this is a tough matchup. Aaron Donald is a beast against the pass but the 49ers should be able to lean on the rushing attack.
San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy can also get the ball out quick, forcing Los Angeles’ young defense to communicate and tackle.
If Matthew Stafford is great then the Rams can stay close, but I think the pressure will be too much coming from Nick Bosa and others.
Score prediction: 49ers 30, Rams 17
Pick: 49ers -7.5
New York Jets (+9) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, September 17th, 2023
The Jets have a very good defense but they need to keep things close to avoid this one snowballing.
Can Zach Wilson do so against a defense that dominated the Giants last time out? Not likely.
Look for the Cowboys to flex their muscles once again and rattle Wilson, leading to another week of loud quarterback questions.
Score prediction: Cowboys 28, Jets 13
Pick: Cowboys -9
Washington Commanders (+3.5) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, September 17th, 2023
I honestly have no clue what to makes of these two teams. Both seem very, very average so give me the points.
Score prediction: Broncos 20, Commanders 19
Pick: Commanders +3.5
Miami Dolphins (+3) at New England Patriots
Sunday, September 17th, 2023
Bill Belichick is a maestro when it comes to slowing down opposing offenses, but he can’t cover Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
The Dolphins have too much firepower and will make a statement in this one. Add Miami to the list of legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
Score prediction: Dolphins 27, Patriots 20
Pick: Dolphins -3
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers
Monday, September 18th, 2023
This is a tough spot for Bryce Young, but I think the Panthers will be able to do enough elsewhere to avoid a terrible setup for him.
Young seems like a quick learner and now that he’s adjusted to the speed of the game in the NFL, a better outing awaits.
Score prediction: Saints 21, Panthers 20
Pick: Panthers +3
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday, September 18th, 2023
This feels like a pretty big overreaction following the Week 1 results, especially with how poorly Deshaun Watson played.
The Steelers’ defense should have a big game in this one, and I’m happy to take the points with the home underdog.
Score prediction: Steelers 24, Browns 20
Pick: Steelers +2.5
Last Week: 8-8
Overall Record: 8-8
