After a long offseason, it is finally time to see some on-field results.
But before that, it’s prediction time.
Here are my Week 1 NFL picks against the spread, starting with the belief that the Lions will put a scare into the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Detroit Lions (+4.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Thursday, September 7th, 2023
The Chiefs have the two most important factors in this game: superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid.
But beyond that, I like the way the Lions match up. Its offensive line is quite good, while the Kansas City defensive front is questionable with the expected absence of star pass-rusher Chris Jones.
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce could miss the game with a hyperextended knee, which would stop the Kansas City offense from going nuclear.
Score prediction: Chiefs 27, Lions 24
Pick: Lions +4.5
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, September 10th, 2023
There is a lot of buzz surrounding the Falcons, who made several upgrades to the roster this offseason. Much of this season will come down to the play of second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder, who has been given full reins to the offense.
No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young will be making his NFL debut for a Carolina team that is aiming to take a step forward this season in a path back toward contention.
The Falcons have the better team and are playing at home, so I think they win this matchup, but look for Young to perform better than Ridder and help the Panthers cover the spread.
Score prediction: Falcons 23, Panthers 20
Pick: Panthers +3.5
Houston Texans (+10) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, September 10th, 2023
The Texans traded their 2024 first-round pick to the Cardinals so they must be confident they can compete better this season. The oddsmakers don’t seem to believe it as they are the lone double-digit underdogs in Week 1.
C.J. Stroud could be in for a rude awakening against a tough Baltimore defense, while Lamar Jackson is poised to put up big numbers on a questionable Houston defense.
Score prediction: Ravens 31, Texans 16
Pick: Ravens -10
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, September 10th, 2023
Can Deshaun Watson return to form now that he’s starting this season from the outset? The Browns need it to happen or else they won’t be able to keep up in the AFC North.
I don’t think he will ever get back to the heights of his Houston heyday. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow has returned to practice and is poised to play in the opener.
This spread speaks to me because I think Cleveland will keep it close but fall short.
Score prediction: Bengals 27, Browns 24
Pick: Bengals -2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (-5) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 10th, 2023
The absence of Jonathan Taylor looms large in this one as the Colts are now going to have to rely on rookie Anthony Richardson without their star running back to take some pressure off him.
While Richardson has major tools, he is still raw, and it’s going to show in this one. His athleticism will help keep the Colts in the contest early but mistakes will come eventually.
Trevor Lawrence is the much more polished passer and will help his team pull away.
Score prediction: Jaguars 24, Colts 17
Pick: Jaguars -5
Arizona Cardinals (+7) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, September 10th, 2023
The Commanders have only been favored by a touchdown or more once in the past five years, but it’s happening again here as the oddsmakers couldn’t think much less of Arizona.
Much of this will come down to the play of Washington second-year quarterback Sam Howell. Can first-year Cardinals defensive coordinator Nick Rallies pressure him into some mistakes?
Arizona isn’t expected to have a good pass-rush this season but look for Rallis to dial up some creative stuff. Howell may only marginally outplay Joshua Dobbs, which will help the Cardinals cover.
Score prediction: Commanders 23, Cardinals 17
Pick: Cardinals +7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, September 10th, 2023
The Buccaneers still have a decent amount of talent everywhere but quarterback, but the hole there is huge. Baker Mayfield is aiming to resurrect his career again, but more than likely, this will become his last starting gig before the transition to backup.
Even so, I think the Tampa Bay defense will be able to keep things close against a Minnesota team that has moved on from Dalvin Cook and has an inexperienced wide receiver core beyond the great Justin Jefferson.
Look for Bucs coach Todd Bowles to bring a solid game plan as his team covers the spread.
Score prediction: Vikings 21, Buccaneers 17
Pick: Buccaneers +5.5
Tennessee Titans (+3) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, September 10th, 2023
This spread might be the most surprising one of any game this week. The Saints are at home with a rock solid defense, and have upgraded at quarterback after acquiring Derek Carr this offseason.
The Titans, meanwhile, don’t have the same amount of talent on either side of the ball. It’s possible the veteran trio of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, wideout DeAndre Hopkins and running back Derrick Henry help the Titans stay close, but I think the Saints are superior across the board and will show it in this one.
Score prediction: Saints 24, Titans 17
Pick: Saints -3
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, September 10th, 2023
Nick Bosa is back in the fold and Brock Purdy is healthy again. I think the 49ers are the best team in the NFC, and while the Steelers are intriguing, the roster depth of San Francisco will be on full display here.
Look for the final quarterback drafted in 2022 to outduel the first quarterback drafted in 2022, with a little help from his friends.
Score prediction: 49ers 24, Steelers 17
Pick: 49ers -2.5
Green Bay Packers (+1) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, September 10th, 2023
The Bears have gotten more hype this offseason but the Packers are hoping to be competitive with Jordan Love now at quarterback.
This will be an interesting litmus test for both sides. In the end, I need to see Justin Fields become a more complete passer before believing fully in Chicago.
Green Bay is balanced enough to squeak out this win.
Score prediction: Packers 23, Bears 21
Pick: Packers +1
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at New England Patriots
Sunday, September 10th, 2023
The Eagles are the vastly more talented team but for whatever reason I think this game could be a slog. Jalen Hurts might regress from his outstanding 2022 campaign, and there could be some signs of it here as Bill Belichick has had ample time to devise a game plan.
Philly is the better team and I think it sneaks out a win but it will be a nail-biter.
Score prediction: Eagles 24, Patriots 21
Pick: Patriots +4
Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, September 10th, 2023
The Raiders seem to be a bit of a mess right now. Chandler Jones won’t play and the talent on the field is going to be lacking.
Jimmy Garoppolo always put up nice numbers in San Francisco but I think this game is going to show that he was just a system quarterback. The Broncos can somewhat mitigate Davante Adams with Pat Surtain, and the rest of the defense can then get to work against Garoppolo.
I honestly have no clue what we’re going to get from Russell Wilson this year, but he should have a solid outing against a dismal Las Vegas defense.
Score prediction: Broncos 26, Raiders 20
Pick: Broncos -3.5
Miami Dolphins (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, September 10th, 2023
This one should be a lot of fun. The Dolphins have the better supporting cast but there is a big gulf in talent level between Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa.
Los Angeles underperformed a season ago but with a new play-caller in the fold and a healthy offense, I think Herbert elevates his game to new heights in 2023.
Look for the Chargers to fly high in this one and cover the spread.
Score prediction: Chargers 31, Dolphins 27
Pick: Chargers -3
Los Angeles Rams (+5.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, September 10th, 2023
How much of a difference can two players make? We will find out soon as Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald will attempt to keep the Rams afloat despite a roster full of question marks around them.
The Seahawks are the much more balanced and talented team, and continuity is a big deal here.
The Rams have a great coach but Sean McVay can’t make up for so many deficiencies with his mind alone. The Seahawks should cruise.
Score prediction: Seahawks 24, Rams 16
Pick: Seahawks -5.5
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants
Sunday, September 10th, 2023
The Giants had a surprisingly good season in 2022 and have doubled down on Daniel Jones and Co. Tight end Darren Waller has been added to the mix and New York does look more talented this season, but it still isn’t close to Dallas.
The Cowboys shored up their weaknesses at wideout and cornerback with the additions of Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore. This is one of the best teams in the NFL on paper and they should have no problem pulling away from the Giants for the win.
Score prediction: Cowboys 27, Giants 20
Pick: Cowboys -3
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets
Monday, September 11th, 2023
The Aaron Rodgers era has arrived. The Jets were fantastic defensively last season and now they have a quarterback. Will that be enough to vault them into AFC contention?
The oddsmakers believe they can keep it close against the Bills in this matchup, but I am not taking the shiny new toy to cover.
Buffalo has been one of the best teams in the NFL the past several seasons and I’m happy to take them at this spread, because a victory by a field goal margin would get the job done.
Score prediction: Bills 23, Jets 20
Pick: Bills -2.5
Last year’s record: 130-118-7
