2023 NFL Betting: New York Jets Wide Receiver Garrett Wilson Projected to Have Monster Season

NFL futures bets are few and far between this time of year, as the oddsmakers are waiting until rosters are more settled before unveiling too many wagers.

But DraftKings has recently listed a slew of New York Jets bets in anticipation of Aaron Rodgers joining the team. The team’s win total has been set a 9.5, with the over currently the -130 favorite, and the Jets are -160 favorites to make the playoffs.

The two most intriguing ones, to me, center on the Jets’ talented second-year wide receiver Garrett Wilson, who is projected to put up monster numbers in 2023.

Garrett Wilson Has an Over/Under Receiving Yardage Total of 1,150.5

There were only 12 receivers that reached 1,151 receiving yards a season ago, a number that stars like Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and DK Metcalf failed to hit.

Wilson was actually pretty close, finishing the year with 83 catches for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns on his way to a Rookie of the Year award.

The first-round pick out of Ohio State did it despite erratic quarterback play, which is why the oddsmakers are confident in pushing his total up higher with Rodgers representing a major upgrade in the room.

If the Jets get Aaron Rodgers..

What round are you drafting Garrett Wilson next season? 👀 pic.twitter.com/m2Nv3G3JFk

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) March 20, 2023

The concern, though, is that Wilson played in all 17 games as a rookie, and if he misses even one or two, the degree of difficulty in reaching this number gets quite high. 

Stefon Diggs and Amon-Ra St. Brown were the only players in the NFL to surpass 1,150.5 receiving yards despite missing time, and they each were only sidelined for one game apiece. 

Because of the ever-present injury risk in the NFL, there were only six players with an over/under receiving total above 1,150 yards last season: Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb.

Diggs, Lamb, Adams and Jefferson went over their totals, while injuries resulted in Chase and Kupp falling short.

Wilson is a talented player, and his youth helps from a durability perspective, but I’m not ready to place him in the superstar pantheon quite yet. Between the risk of missed games and early hiccups integrating with a veteran quarterback, I’d play this one conservatively.

Prediction: Garrett Wilson under 1,150.5 receiving yards in 2023 (-115)

Garrett Wilson has an Over/Under Touchdown Catch Total of Nine

The “under” on this bet is currently the favorite at -125 odds, but I’d zig as others zag on this one.

When Aaron Rodgers has a clear No. 1 receiver, that player tends to get a lot of touchdown opportunities. Davante Adams averaged 11.5 touchdown receptions per year from 2016-21, and even though there was no star pass-catching weapon last season, Christian Watson finished with seven and Allen Lazard had six.

Wilson is a special talent, and Rodgers will likely be looking his way a lot in the red zone this year. While Wilson only had four touchdown catches as a rookie, the offense should be much better than last year’s unit that finished No. 26 in efficiency, giving him ample opportunity to make a sizable jump.

Rodgers threw five touchdown passes to running back Aaron Jones last season, but Breece Hall had only one touchdown catch as a rookie and six in his three college seasons at Iowa State, which means he is unlikely to be a big part of the passing game near the goal-line.

Rodgers is likely to have a lot of creative freedom at the line of scrimmage, and if Wilson has single coverage from the 5, the veteran quarterback won’t hesitate to chuck him a quick pass and let Wilson take it from there.

I like the odds on this bet as they currently stand, especially with a push in play if Wilson falls just short of double digits in scoring grabs.

Prediction: Garrett Wilson over nine touchdown catches in 2023 (-105)