It’s playoff time, where the stakes are higher for the players and the betting continues for us.
Here are my predictions for all the games on Super Wild Card weekend.
Here are three prop bets I like:
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence over 246.5 passing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Jacksonville is a slight underdog in its wild card matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers, and even though I think the Jaguars could pull off the upset, the game should be close enough throughout that Lawrence will be throwing regularly for all four quarters.
He has an attempts over/under of 35.5, and if we extrapolate that out, it means he would need to average only 6.9 yards per pass to reach 245 for the contest.
Lawrence averaged 7.3 yards per attempt this season, including 7.6 yards per attempt in the team’s five-game winning streak to close out the year. The Chargers are not very good against the run, so a lot of teams will overload the offensive game-plan with rushing attempts.
However, Lawrence has morphed into a very good quarterback in only Year 2, and coach Doug Pederson is not going to want to take the ball out of his hands too often. The volume and the efficiency should be there, and if the Jaguars are trailing in a close game late, Lawrence will be very pass-happy.
It all adds up to an over bet on Lawrence.
Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase over 6.5 receptions (-105 at DraftKings)
There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Joe Burrow deluging his superstar wide receiver with targets. In 12 games this year, Chase was targeted a whopping 134 times, averaging 7.3 catches per game.
Chase went under seven catches in three of his first four games, but since then he has had seven-plus catches in all eight heading into the postseason. The Bengals’ offense is moving the ball well, which means longer possessions and more pass attempts.
Stars shine bright in the playoffs, and Burrow will keep feeding Chase. In two games this season, Chase had seven catches for 50 yards against the Ravens and then eight catches for 86 in the season finale.
Cincy is going to keep the pedal to the floor throughout this game even if it takes an early lead, because there is no messing around in the postseason. Chase will be a huge part of it, per usual, and should hit seven or more catches once again.
Buccaneers QB Tom Brady over 275.5 pass yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Brady has been throwing the ball an insane amount this season, leading the NFL in completions with 490 and attempts with 733. His yards per attempt figure of 6.4 is the lowest since very early in his career, so it will take that type of volume to reach 276 passing yards.
The Cowboys are one of the best teams in the NFL against the pass, but a lot of that is due to their very impressive pass-rush. Brady will be able to mitigate that because he gets the ball out so quickly.
I don’t think there are going to be a ton of chunk plays for Tampa Bay in this game, but Brady will be able to whittle away at this number by completing a lot of underneath passes.
I also think Dallas wins this game by about a touchdown, which means the Buccaneers will be airing it out in the fourth quarter while attempting to come back. This is a very achievable number and I like Brady to reach 276 passing yards against the Cowboys.
Last week’s prop bets record: 3-2
Overall: 83-80
