There were three quarterbacks taken within the first four picks of the NFL draft, but none has been instituted as the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
That honor goes to running back Bijan Robinson, who was the No. 8 overall selection by the Atlanta Falcons.
While the analytical process criticizes teams that take running backs early in the draft, the numbers they put up still tend to be rewarded by Rookie of the Year voters.
Robinson has a clear path to a heavy workload as a rookie, especially because Atlanta has unproven second-year youngster Desmond Ridder at quarterback.
Robinson’s odds to win the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award sit at +300, per BetMGM on May 2. There are six candidates in total with shorter than 10-to-1 odds to win Rookie of the Year:
- Falcons RB Bijan Robinson +300
- Panthers QB Bryce Young +500
- Texans QB C.J. Stroud +650
- Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba +700
- Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs +900
- Colts QB Anthony Richardson +900
Young, Stroud and Richardson all have clear paths to start from Day 1 provided they acclimate quickly to the NFL game. Young is seen as the most polished, so it makes sense for him to have the second-best odds among the Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates behind Robinson.
Smith-Njigba wasn’t chosen until No. 20 overall but ends up in Seattle, where he should be able to start immediately alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Lions surprised many by taking Gibbs at No. 12 overall, and after trading DeAndre Swift during draft weekend, he should be in line for a big role.
New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson is the reigning OROY winner, the second straight wideout to win the award following Ja’Marr Chase in 2021. Quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray were the two previous winners, and they were directly preceded by running backs Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara.
In fact, over the past nine years, quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers have each captured three Offensive Rookie of the Year awards, so it seems like anyone from those positions has a shot at it.
Here are the rest of the candidates listed with Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, according to BetMGM, headlined by a flood of wide receivers taken in the first or second round. Some of the longshots could be intriguing bets.
- Jordan Addison +1600
- Zay Flowers +2000
- Quentin Johnston +2000
- Josh Downs +2000
- Jaylin Hyatt +2500
- Will Levis +3000
- Tyjae Spears +3000
- Tank Bigsby +3000
- Zach Charbonnet +4000
- Devon Achane +4000
- Cedric Tillman +4000
- Roschon Johnson +4000
- Michael Mayer +4000
- Hendon Hooker +5000
- Tyler Scott +5000
- Marvin Mims +5000
- Jayden Reed +5000
- Trey Palmer +5000
- Dalton Kincaid +5000
- Darnell Washington +6600
- Rashee Rice +6600
- Sam LaPorta +6600
- Luke Musgrave +8000
- Evan Hull +10000
