It is do-or-die time for the Phoenix Suns, who are down 0-2 in their Western Conference Semifinals matchup with the Denver Nuggets.
Phoenix is back home, and even without Chris Paul has been instituted as the 4.5-point favorite. The Suns are -185 on the moneyline and the over/under scoring total is listed at 224.5.
Beyond the final score, here are three prop bets I like:
Suns G Cameron Payne over 10.5 points (-120 at BetMGM)
The absence of Paul has moved Payne into the starting lineup. While the left-handed point guard is coming off an injury of his own, Payne has been back for three games now and should see a marked increase in his minutes.
Payne averaged 10.3 points per game in the regular season in just 20.2 minutes of action, so 11 points certainly feels attainable in this one. He averaged 9.4 field goal attempts, including 3.9 three-pointers, in regular season games, and has never been afraid to look for his shot.
The Nuggets are going to be paying close attention to Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, as they should, which will give Payne some opportunities to hit from long range. He was just 1-of-7 overall and 0-of-4 from downtown in Game 2 but is a solid shooter and should connect on some of his jumpers. I like the over.
Suns C Deandre Ayton to Record a Double-Double (-105 at BetMGM)
Ayton has received criticism in this series for his lack of hustle, and has taken exception to it. He has scored in double figures in each of the first two games but has yet to reach 10 rebounds in either contest, corralling seven in Game 1 and eight in Game 2.
A stronger performance from Ayton on the glass is a prerequisite, and while his motor does come and go, I expect a more motivated showing tonight.
Nikola Jokic is a beast on the boards and is going to win the majority of 50-50 matchups with Ayton, but any time the Suns are on defense their center has the advantage. I think the scoring total will easily reach 10, and the rebounds will sneak past it as well.
Suns F Kevin Durant under 5.5 assists (+110 at BetMGM)
I like the value on this play. Durant averaged 5.0 assists per game in the regular season and has only reached six in one of the five playoff games.
The absence of Paul may force him to become more of a creator early in the shot clock, but I believe Devin Booker and Cameron Payne will mostly have that role. And when Durant does pass, he doesn’t exactly have a deep reservoir of teammates who can knock down shots on the perimeter.
Furthermore, Durant only scored 24 points in Game 2 and I think the Suns need him to be a superstar in the scoring category in Game 3.
Durant has the ability to get his shot off against any defender because of his height, and if he chooses to be aggressive, then the assists may not be as plentiful as the oddsmakers expect.
Durant has only totaled four assists in the first two games, and while the average should increase with his Game 3 output, I could see him finishing at 4 or 5 for this under to hit.
