The six-month Major League Baseball season has rendered many a fast start obsolete. But there are always players for whom a good first month serves as the foundation for a breakout performance.
Here’s a look at eight players — four from each league — who have emerged as award-winning candidates with a strong April. All betting odds from DraftKings as of Apr. 28.
Jarred Kelenic, Mariners (+6000 AL MVP)
As the New York Post noted way back in early March, maybe the Edwin Diaz trade can still become the Jarred Kelenic trade. Kelenic, the main return for Seattle in the blockbuster that sent Diaz and Robinson Cano to the Mets in December 2018, looked like an all-time bust over his first 500 at-bats, when he hit .168 with 167 strikeouts.
But Kelenic, still just 23 years old, is off to a scorching start this year with a .316 average, seven homers, 14 RBIs and an AL-best .671 slugging percentage. He’s generated 1.2 in WAR, per Baseball-Reference, after entering the season with negative-2.0 WAR.
While everyone is a long shot in a race led by Shohei Ohtani, Kelenic has a chance to get into the MVP discussion if he can stay hot and help the Mariners — off to an 11-14 start and already 3 1/2 games back of the last wild card spot and in 11th place overall in the AL — climb into the playoff race. At the least, he’s providing more evidence that prospects rarely travel a linear path.
Matt Chapman, Blue Jays (+3500 AL MVP)
Contract push! Chapman’s been a very good player for a long time — he’s hit at least 24 homers in each of the previous four full seasons and entered this season with three Gold Gloves at third base and a whopping 10.2 worth of defensive WAR at Baseball-Reference — but he had a triple slash of just .240/.329/.469. This year, the impending free agent is at .364/.446/.659.
The first two figures lead the AL, as does his 1.8 WAR. While third baseman are notoriously hard to judge when it comes to the Hall of Fame, they’ve been rewarded with the MVP six times in the wild card era — most recently in the AL in 2015, when Josh Donaldson won it for the Blue Jays.
Joe Ryan, Twins (+3000 AL Cy Young)
Again, it might just be silly to pontificate about the chances of someone other than Ohtani to win the Cy Young. But Ryan, who was an impressive 15-9 with a 3.63 ERA in his first 32 big league starts, has solidified himself as the co-ace of the first-place Twins by opening 5-0 with a 2.81 ERA. The underlying numbers — an 0.81 WHIP and a 36/4 strikeout-to-walk ratio — indicate he’s here to stay.
Hunter Brown, Astros (+700 AL Rookie of the Year)
Finally, an AL award Ohtani can’t win! The Rookie of the Year-winning starting pitcher might be turning into a unicorn himself. A full-time starter hasn’t won the Rookie of the Year since Michael Fulmer took home the AL honors in 2016. Brown would seem to be particularly susceptible to a shutdown after throwing just 230 minor league innings and sitting out the 2020 season due to the pandemic.
But he’s been so impressive thus far — 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 30 innings while basically replacing Justin Verlander in the Astros’ rotation — that he warrants mentioning here in case Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Volpe struggle or end up canceling each other out.
Brandon Nimmo, Mets (+7500 NL MVP)
Few players have ever hit free agency in as timely a fashion as Nimmo, a centerfielder and leadoff hitter who was months shy of his 30th birthday and the second-best outfielder in a market dominated last winter by Aaron Judge. But the Mets, who re-signed Nimmo to an eight-year deal worth $162 million, might have gotten a bargain.
Nimmo, who famously didn’t play high school baseball in his home state of Wyoming, has continued his dramatic improvement on both sides of the ball with a .341/.446/.473 triple slash while making spectacular catches in centerfield to preserve two wins on the Mets’ recent 7-3 west coast trip. There will be players who have better numbers than Nimmo, but he’s as good an all-around player as there is in the NL and will be an intriguing candidate if the Mets can emerge atop the NL East.
Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks (+300 NL Cy Young)
Gallen opened the season with +1100 odds of winning the Cy Young, which made him an interesting tweener candidate — not a favorite but not a long shot. There’s nothing tweener anymore about Gallen after he’s gone 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA and an NL-best 51 strikeouts in his first six starts.
Sandy Alcantara’s struggles and an injury scare have made this a wide-open race and Gallen is going to get a lot of support if the Diamondbacks, the surprise leaders in the NL West, continue fending off the Dodgers and Padres.
Mitch Keller, Pirates (n/a NL Cy Young)
The Pirates are going to have to get some attention if they continue leading the NL Central with the best record in the Senior Circuit, right? Keller entered this season 12-29 with a 5.00 ERA in four big league seasons, so some regression from his fast start — 3-0 with a 3.53 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 35 2/3 innings — is likely.
But Keller could be a classic example of a late bloomer. He was drafted at 18, was a consensus top-60 prospect from 2017 through 2020 and just turned 27, the age at which most athletes peak. He’ll get some consideration if he ends up the ace of a surprise pennant contender.
James Outman, Dodgers (+175 Rookie of the Year)
With +4000 odds prior to Opening Day, Outman was a true long shot in the NL Rookie of the Year race. But the ironically named Outman has emerged as a co-favorite with the Diamondbacks’ Corbin Carroll by solidifying himself as the Dodgers’ centerfielder and soaring from eighth in the lineup to cleanup the last three games by ranking among the NL’s top 10 in homers (seven), RBIs (19) and OPS (1.011).
With the Cardinals’ Jordan Walker optioned to the minors this week, this might already be a two-man race.
