2023 MLB Betting Preview: Talented Farm System Makes Arizona Diamondbacks Intriguing Sleeper Team

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been an average or worse baseball team for a long time.

They have been under .500 in each of the past three seasons, haven’t made the playoffs since 2017 and haven’t won the National League West since 2011.

The oddsmakers have measured expectations in 2023, with a projected win total of 75.5 and +550 odds to make the playoffs, per DraftKings on March 30.

But after several seasons that lacked hope from the start, this year is different in Arizona. The big league club has some bonafide studs leading the way, and if the D-Backs can manage to remain in contention for the first half of the season, there is a farm system teeming with talented reinforcements.

The Stars

Ketel Marte had a down season in 2022 but Fangraphs projects him as a 3 WAR player in 2023. He is still only 29 years old and can be counted on to be a productive piece near the top of the lineup. Corbin Caroll, one of the favorites to win National League Rookie of the Year, was No. 1 on Keith Law’s Top-100 prospects list and is poised to add production on both offense and defense.

Here are the ROY odds and Corbin's projected stat line this season: https://t.co/eT2w02lnJB

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) March 3, 2023

Zac Gallen is a bonafide ace who can enter the Cy Young conversation if enough bounces go his way, while Christian Walker thumped 36 homers last season and will anchor the middle of the lineup. The Diamondbacks don’t have a Mike Trout or a Juan Soto type of player, but if all four of these guys have good seasons, it will be a major development and allow Arizona to stay in the playoff hunt.

The Prospects

The Diamondbacks have some issues in the starting rotation, at shortstop and in the bullpen. If they are too glaring, Arizona will quickly fall behind the Dodgers and the Padres in the National League West.

However, if the minor league prospects can get some seasoning and then get called up, the fortunes could change quite a bit.

Shortstop Jordan Lawlar was No. 9 on Law’s top-100 prospects list, and even though he is only 20 years old, a Major League call-up in 2023 could happen. Nick Ahmed is good defensively but an issue with the bat, and the switch to Lawlar could become an immediate upgrade.

Been watching this Jordan Lawlar home run swing on repeat

pic.twitter.com/VnzW008wkt

— Farm To Fame (@FarmToFame_) March 28, 2023

Brandon Pfaadt didn’t win a starting rotation spot out of Spring Training but will be waiting in the wings for his opportunity. He is Law’s No. 38 prospect and could be an upgrade on Madison Bumgarner and Zach Davies. Ryne Nelson is the prospect who earned the No. 5 spot and also has a higher ceiling than those two veterans.

The rotation is questionable now, but a quartet of Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Pfaadt and Nelson could be strong enough to keep Arizona competitive provided the youngsters find their groove.

The Conclusion

Rookies often struggle in their first exposure to the big leagues. The Diamondbacks are going to get a lot of hype in 2024 because many of these players will be ready for full-time action at that point, while center fielder Druw Jones will be another year along in his development.

But it’s not out of the question for Arizona to surprise in 2023. Catcher Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. were added in an offseason trade for Daulton Varsho, and production from those two would be another major key.

The Dodgers and Padres are absolute juggernauts in the National League West, which is a big reason why the Diamondbacks have tepid regular season win and playoff odds.

Odds to win the National League West, via DraftKings:

Dodgers -110
Padres +120
Giants +950
Diamondbacks +4500
Rockies +18000

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) March 30, 2023

But Arizona baseball fans have reason for optimism this year.

There is a wave of young talent coming to the big leagues. If the prospects speed up the timeline and make an outsized impact in 2023, a return to the postseason will be in play.

Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks go over 75.5 wins (-110) and make the playoffs (+550)