2023 MLB Betting Preview: Predicting MVP, Rookie of the Year and Other Award Winners

Opening Day is in the rearview mirror, which means there’s still time to look at the candidates for Major League Baseball’s biggest postseason awards without worrying that recency bias will impact our assessments.

Well, unless there’s a catcher who went 5-for-5 or a pitcher who struck out 10 batters while also serving as his team’s designated hitter. But what are the odds of either of those things happening?

Speaking of odds, all the odds listed below are from DraftKings as of March 31. 

AMERICAN LEAGUE MVP

Shohei Ohtani (+190): Yeah, wagering on someone with under 2/1 odds of winning the MVP is about as exciting as taking the free spot in the middle of a bingo card. But barring Aaron Judge hitting 62 homers again or the Angels once again plummeting out of contention by the first day of summer, Ohtani feels like a sure thing if he equals or surpasses his performance last season, when he became the first player in history to qualify for both the ERA title and the  batting crown, Absurd. Ohtani looked MVP-caliber Thursday night, when he struck out 10 over six scoreless innings…and the Angels lost, because of course they did.

Shohei Ohtani’s outing was the 26th since at least 1901 with 10+ strikeouts and no runs allowed on Opening Day

it’s the first time that pitcher’s team lost the game

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) March 31, 2023

Aaron Judge (+450): Batting against the team he almost signed with in December, Judge hit the first homer of the baseball season, because of course he did. Judge almost surely can’t pull off a repeat of 2022, but even hitting a mere 50 homers and once again carrying the Yankees to the top of the AL East will keep him in the mix if Ohtani ends up looking human.

Julio Rodriguez (+700): Four players have won the MVP the year after winning Rookie of the Year — Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr. along with Ryan Howard, Dustin Pedroia and Kris Bryant. Rodriguez, who went 20/20 while looking like baseball’s most exciting player this side of Ohtani last year, would benefit if the Mariners surged past the Astros in the NL West. 

Yordan Alvarez (+1000): He’s more one-dimensional than the rest of the players on our list. But did you see this last night? Mercy. 

OH MY GOD BABE ALVAREZ pic.twitter.com/GS94yANN1t

— Dillard Barnhart (@BarnHasSpoken2) March 31, 2023

Adley Rutschman (+1400): Looking for a long shot who already isn’t a long shot? Rutschman went an insane 5-for-5 with a walk in the Orioles’ win over the Red Sox yesterday, when his MVP odds were +2500 (!!!). He’s the second catcher to hit a homer and reach base at least four times in his first Opening Day, following in the footsteps of Hall of Famer Carlton Fisk. Throw in his excellent defense and Rutschman could be the biggest challenger to Ohtani if the Orioles can stay in contention.

Catchers since 1901 to have a HR & reach base 4+ times in their first Opening Day game:

2023 Adley Rutschman
1973 Carlton Fisk

Data via OptaSTATS pic.twitter.com/mHnksKeaQb

— Greg Harvey (@BetweenTheNums) March 30, 2023

THE PICK: Ohtani. Don’t overthink it. 

NATIONAL LEAGUE MVP

Juan Soto (+550): Here’s your regular reminder Soto can’t rent a car until October and already has three top-10 MVP finishes and more WAR (23.2) than Jay Buhner collected in 15 seasons. Soto was merely OK by his standards following his midseason trade to the Padres last year (a .778 OPS), but a full season in a loaded lineup could be enough to finally lift him to the top of the pack.

Trea Turner (+800): The Phillies’ new sparkplug — fresh off a monster World Baseball Classic and primed to take advantage of the new rules emphasizing singles and stolen bases — has a real chance to become the first player since Vladimir Guerrero in 2004 to change teams via free agency and win the MVP in his first season with his new squad. 

Ronald Acuna Jr. (+850): The top of the Braves’ order is loaded with intriguing MVP candidates, but Acuna Jr. is the only one who has a chance to hit 30 homers and steal 50 bases.

Nolan Arenado (+1100): Teammate Paul Goldschmidt likely punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame by winning the NL MVP last season, but Arenado — who leads the majors in homers and RBIs since 2015 — was the one who led the Senior Circuit in WAR. 

Manny Machado (+1500): Perhaps the MVP race will be a two-man race between two Hall of Fame-track third baseman. Machado, who finished second in the MVP balloting last season, ranks fourth in the majors in homers and RBIs since 2015.

THE PICK: Machado. This is the year his consistency finally gets rewarded with an MVP.

AL CY YOUNG AWARD

Jacob deGrom (+600): The Rangers bet $185 million deGrom would be healthy enough to finish his unique Hall of Fame sprint. But he’s thrown just 224 1/3 innings the last three seasons and opened his Texas career yesterday by giving up a career-high six extra-base hits.

Dylan Cease (+700): A little more effectiveness — Cease has posted a 3.01 ERA while walking an average of 3.8 batters per nine innings the last two years — could make him the favorite.

Shane McClanahan (+1000): The Rays’ southpaw was a co-leader in the Cy Young race with Justin Verlander before suffering a neck injury in late August and posting a 5.21 ERA in his final four starts.

THE PICK: Cease. Ten strikeouts and no walks against the defending World Series champions last night? That’ll work.

NL CY YOUNG AWARD

Sandy Alcantara (+450): Health permitting, no one will have more of a chance to collect counting stats than Alcantara, who won the Cy Young last season while throwing 228 2/3 innings, 22 1/3 more than Aaron Nola, and finishing with six complete games, twice as many as Framber Valdez.  

Spencer Strider (+950): After becoming just the second pitcher ever to strike out at least 200 batters in fewer than 150 innings, Strider (202 strikeouts in 131 2/3 innings) seems primed to follow in the footsteps of Chris Sale (218 strikeouts in 147 1/3 innings in 2019), who received Cy Young votes in a record-tying seven straight seasons from 2012 through 2018.

Zac Gallen (+1100): As Kyle Odegard noted yesterday, the Diamondbacks have some really good players flying under the radar — none of whom are soaring as stealthily as Gallen, who led the NL last season with 11 starts in which he allowed two hits or fewer.

There hasn’t been much excitement around the Diamondbacks in recent seasons, but that could change in 2023.

I wrote why Arizona is a sneaky good bet to make the playoffs this year at +550 odds.https://t.co/onPyFPEpSd

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) March 30, 2023

THE PICK: Alcantara. Long live durability.

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Gunnar Henderson (+285): Would be the overwhelming favorite in most years after hitting 19 homers and stealing 22 bases between Double-A and Triple-A before last season before posting a .788 OPS in 116 big league at-bats. But…

Anthony Volpe (+485): …the first Yankees rookie to start at shortstop on Opening Day since Derek Jeter is going to get lots of attention and action. The 21-year-old Volpe wasn’t on the board before making his big league debut yesterday, when he went 0-for-2 with a stolen base. But Volpe earned the hype by hitting 21 homers and stealing 50 bases between Double-A and Triple-A last season.

Oscar Colas (+1300): Here’s an intriguing longshot. Four Cuban defectors have won the Rookie of the Year since 2013, including Jose Abreu with the White Sox in 2014. Colas hit 23 homers between three minor league levels last year after missing the 2020 and 2021 seasons.

THE PICK: Henderson, but it’ll be a close race in which Volpe and Colas have moments as the front-runner.

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Jordan Walker (+360): A hotly hyped Cardinals prospect is always going to be a popular betting target, but there could be some growing pains for the 20-year-old Walker, who hit .306 with 19 homers and 22 stolen bases at Double-A Springfield last year yet struck out 15 times while walking just twice this spring. 

Corbin Carroll (+400): There could be some growing pains here too for Carroll, who had just 539 major league at-bats before being promoted to the Diamondbacks last August. But he looked like he belonged by posting an .830 OPS and earning an eight-year, $111 million deal from the Diamondbacks.

James Outman (+4000): There are many worse candidates on whom to place a wager than a graduate of the Dodgers’ endless player development factory. The odds for the ironically named Outman might begin dropping today after he followed up a solid spring (.283 with three homers and 11 RBIs) by going 2-for-3 with a two-run homer last night.

THE PICK: Carroll, who easily becomes the first Diamondbacks player to win the Rookie of the Year.