Regular season win totals for every Major League Baseball team have been available for several weeks now.
More recently, various projection algorithms have taken their shot at predicting the 2023 season.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections were unveiled on Tuesday, and while some of their record predictions align closely with the betting markets, others are quite different.
Here are the eight teams projected to surpass their over/under win totals by more than two games in 2023. Win totals via DraftKings on February 15:
8. Milwaukee Brewers
2022 record: 86-76 (+37 run-differential)
2023 over/under: 85.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 88.0
Difference: +2.5 wins
The Brewers’ win total has been placed right around where they finished up last season, While Milwaukee has the second-best odds to win the National League Central behind the Cardinals, PECOTA projects them ahead of the Cardinals by two games.
Milwaukee has a 56.4% chance to win the division according to PECOTA, which makes its odds of +160 pretty intriguing. The Brewers are projected to give up 664 runs this season, the fewest in the division.
7. Boston Red Sox
2022 record: 78-84 (-52 run-differential)
2023 over/under: 77.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 80.2
Difference: +2.7 wins
The Red Sox have an over/under win total that projects them to be slightly worse than last season, but PECOTA sees a team that is almost perfectly average. Boston is projected to have a plus-6 run-differential this year and finish within two games of .500.
The Red Sox are +370 to make the playoffs in 2023, but there might be some value there. Despite a tough division, PECOTA projects the Red Sox to make the postseason 21.7% of the time in their simulations.
6. New York Yankees
2022 record: 99-63 (+240 run-differential)
2023 over/under: 94.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 97.9
Difference: +3.4 wins
The sportsbooks have been somewhat conservative with their regular season win total for the Yankees, putting it 5.5 games below last year’s record. However, PECOTA feels strongly that this is the best team in Major League Baseball.
The Yankees easily outpace their win total projection, capture the American League East a whopping 78.9% of the time and win the World Series 17.1% of the time, which is easily the most among any team.
The Yankees currently have +105 odds to win the A.L. East and +700 odds to win the World Series.
5. Miami Marlins
2022 record: 69-93 (90 run-differential)
2023 over/under: 76.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 80.1
Difference: +3.6 wins
It’s going to be tough for the Marlins to leapfrog the Mets, Braves and Phillies to win the National League East, but PECOTA believes the Marlins should flirt with .500 and easily surpass their win total.
Despite being projected to win 80 games, Miami is given just a 16.9% chance to make the postseason in the National League. The Marlins’ playoff odds sit at +320, which is not great value.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
2022 record: 62-100 (-226 run-differential)
2023 over/under: 67.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 71.6
Difference: +4.1 wins
There might not be much optimism for the Pirates again this season, but, hey, taking the over on their win total could be the way to go. Pittsburgh struggled badly last season but PECOTA sees some progress on the horizon.
The Pirates don’t need to set the world on fire to surpass their win total, as a 68-94 record would do the trick. PECOTA believes the Pirates will get there, and then some.
3. Oakland Athletics
2022 record: 60-102 (-202 run-differential)
2023 over/under: 60.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 64.6
Difference: +4.1 wins
Here is another team expected to be among the dregs of Major League Baseball, but one that PECOTA again has higher hopes for than the sportsbooks. Oakland does not have much chance of making the postseason this year, but eking out 61 wins would push them over their win total.
The Athletics were awful last season and still won 60 games, so small improvements would help them surpass the mark. PECOTA sees 64 or 65 wins as a realistic outcome.
2. Los Angeles Angels
2022 record: 73-89
2023 over/under: 81.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 86.2
Difference: +4.7 wins
The sportsbooks and PECOTA agree that the Angels should be improved this season after a disappointing run in 2022. While DraftKings has placed the over/under near .500, there is more optimism from the projection algorithm.
Mike Trout has missed substantial time due to injury in recent years, and his health is a huge wild card. If the Angels have him on the field for the vast majority of the games, that will affect the win total greatly. Shohei Ohtani is the other superstar for the Angels, and PECOTA feels like Los Angeles addressed its holes adequately enough this offseason to improve substantially.
The Angels are given a 54.9% chance to make the postseason by PECOTA, while DraftKings is offering odds of +190 for them to get there. They are also forecasted to finish second in the A.L. West behind the Astros, while DraftKings has them with only the fourth-best odds to win the division at +1000.
1. Minnesota Twins
2022 record: 78-84
2023 over/under: 81.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 88.2
Difference: +6.7 wins
Despite finishing last season six games under .500, PECOTA feels strongly that the Minnesota Twins will make serious gains in 2023.
Minnesota is projected to finish with the most wins in the American League Central – edging out the Guardians by 0.2 victories – and PECOTA gives it a 71.3% chance to make the postseason. The Twins currently have +145 odds to make the postseason.
The Twins surprisingly re-signed Carlos Correa after two failed bids to move on, while Joey Gallo has upside after signing a one-year deal.
The Twins are projected to allow only 613 runs this season, the second-lowest in the American League. Right-hander Pablo Lopez was added in a trade with the Marlins, and he should help round out a solid starting rotation.
Minnesota has +285 odds to win the American League Central, behind both Cleveland and the Chicago White Sox. PECOTA believes that Minnesota will sprint past its projected win total by the end of the season, making the over on the Twins’ regular season win total an easy bet to make.
