Spring Training is here and optimism abounds.
But while fans may be excited about their Major League Baseball teams, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system doesn’t feel that way about everybody.
On Wednesday we highlighted the eight teams projected to surpass their win total by more than two games, led by the Minnesota Twins.
But on the flip-side, here are the nine teams projected to end up below their over/under win totals by more than two games in 2023. Win totals via DraftKings on February 15:
9. Tampa Bay Rays
2022 record: 86-76 (+52 run-differential)
2023 over/under: 88.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 86.0
Difference: -2.5 wins
The small-market Rays do a fantastic job of staying competitive every year and this season should be no different. The oddsmakers have given them some major credit with an over/under of 88.5 games.
However, PECOTA doesn’t see that much dominance, forecasting 86 wins. The Rays are given a 56.1% chance to make the playoffs from PECOTA, while their odds are shorter at -165. DraftKings has Tampa Bay with +380 odds to win the American League East, but PECOTA says it is only a 6.6% chance.
8. St. Louis Cardinals
2022 record: 93-69 (+135 run-differential)
2023 over/under: 88.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 86.0
Difference: -2.5 wins
The Cardinals are the -120 favorites to win the National League Central, but PECOTA has St. Louis underperforming a bit while the Milwaukee Brewers exceed expectations. Therefore, the Brewers are projected to win the division.
St. Louis has a 54% chance at the playoffs per the PECOTA prediction, while its odds sit at a whopping -235 to get there. The Cardinals can be had at +195 odds to miss the playoffs this season, which is good value if you believe in PECOTA.
7. Baltimore Orioles
2022 record: 83-79 (-14 run-differential)
2023 over/under: 76.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 74.0
Difference: -2.5 wins
The Orioles stormed past projections last season, and there is excitement around the team for the first time in a while. However, the over/under at DraftKings is several games below .500, and PECOTA goes a step further, forecasting a 74-88 campaign and a last-place finish in the American League East.
The Orioles are given just a 4.1% chance at the playoffs by PECOTA in a tough division. Their odds sit at +370 to make it, which still might be too steep.
6. Atlanta Braves
2022 record: 101-61 (+180 run-differential)
2023 over/under: 94.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 90.6
Difference: -3.9
The Braves have been one of the most dominant outfits in the National League the past few seasons, but regression is expected in 2023.
The win total is still high, but 6.5 games off last year’s pace. PECOTA sees even less success, predicting fewer than 91 wins this year. Atlanta is still given an 80% chance at the playoffs but Baseball Prospectus sees the New York Mets as the clear class of the N.L. East heading into the season, projecting 5.2 more wins than the Braves.
The Mets have +130 odds to win the division, and the Braves sit at +140.
5. Texas Rangers
2022 record: 68-94 (-36 run-differential)
2023 over/under: 82.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 78.3
Difference: -4.2 wins
After an unlucky season and some big moves this offseason, the Rangers are expected to be noticeably improved in 2023. But while DraftKings is forecasting an above-.500 season, that’s not how PECOTA views this Texas squad.
The Rangers are projected to finish fourth in the American League West and are given only a 12.3% chance at the postseason. That clashes with Texas’ odds of +175 to snag a playoff berth.
4. Chicago White Sox
2022 record: 81-81 (-31 run-differential)
2023 over/under: 83.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 78.3
Difference: -5.2 wins
The White Sox are another team with an above-.500 projection, and they have the second-best odds to win the American League Central at +185. PECOTA is pessimistic, pegging Chicago at more than six games under .500 with a run-differential of negative-29.
The White Sox finish 10 games off the pace in the division by PECOTA’s projections, and are given just a 13.6% shot at the postseason. Chicago has -120 odds to miss the playoffs, which is major value for PECOTA believers.
3. Seattle Mariners
2022 record: 90-72 (+67 run-differential)
2023 over/under: 87.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 82.0
Difference: -5.5 wins
The Mariners have -195 odds to make the playoffs but PECOTA isn’t buying Seattle. It projects 5.5 fewer wins than expected and just an 82-80 finish.
Seattle is given only a 4.9% chance to win the American League West while its odds sit at +310 at DraftKings. The Mariners have an exciting group of players but PECOTA is throwing some cold water on that optimism with these projections.
2. Detroit Tigers
2022 record: 66-96 (-156 run-differential)
2023 over/under: 70.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 64.8
Difference: -5.7 wins
Expectations were already low in Detroit, and PECOTA has dropped them even lower. The Tigers finished with one of the worst records and run-differentials in baseball last season, and while the sportsbooks believe a slight uptick is coming, PECOTA does not.
Detroit is predicted to finish with fewer wins than the 66 of last season and is listed with a zero percent chance to make the postseason. The Tigers have -2500 odds to miss the playoffs at DraftKings, but even that may be too optimistic.
1. Kansas City Royals
2022 record: 65-97 (-170 run-differential)
2023 over/under: 69.5
2023 PECOTA projection: 62.5
Difference: -7.0 wins
Poor Royals. They were the worst team in the American League a season ago, and while DraftKings has given them a slight lift in terms of over/under wins, PECOTA thinks little of Kansas City.
The projection system has the Royals finishing a whopping seven games worse than their win total at 62.5-99.5 on the year. Kansas City is -2000 to miss the playoffs, and while the return would be low, PECOTA doesn’t see any way the Royals compete for a postseason berth.
They are given zero shot at the postseason, even via wild card. When it comes to betting the under on regular season win totals, the Kansas City Royals are the best choice, according to PECOTA.
