MLB Betting: Home Run Derby Predictions, Picks and Odds

One of the great unintentionally insulting phrases in the English language is any phrase that begins with “No offense…”

But here we go anyway.

No offense to Pete Alonso, Randy Arozarena, Mookie Betts, Adonis Garcia, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Luis Robert Jr., Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman, but the first instinct upon surveying tonight’s Home Run Derby field is to lament who won’t be there.

The modern-day Babe Ruth, MLB home run leader Shohei Ohtani, isn’t participating. Nor is National League home run leader Matt Olson or his Atlanta Braves teammate, Ronald Acuna Jr., who is on pace to become the first 40 homers/50 steals (or 40 homers/60 steals, or 40 homers/70 steals, or 40 homers/80 steals, or 50 homers/60 steals…you get the drift) player in baseball history.

And the most electrifying player on the planet, Cincinnati Reds rookie Elly De La Cruz, turned down Major League Baseball’s invitation to appear in the Home Run Derby.

ELLY DE LA CRUSH. pic.twitter.com/N0MAVBkBAj

— MLB (@MLB) June 7, 2023

Sure, there was some nobility in his decision to decline — De La Cruz has only been in the majors for five weeks and wants to concentrate on the second half of the season with the Reds, who have surged from third in the NL Central to first by going 23-8 since De La Cruz’s promotion. But after seeing what he did to a flat Noah Syndergaard fastball for his first big league homer, who wouldn’t want to see what he could do to somebody actually TRYING to throw him meatballs?

But upon a deeper inspection, this Home Run Derby class is pretty much like all the rest — in a good way. 

The eight players in tonight’s field have combined for 155 homers. Four of the contestants — Alonso, Robert, Betts and Garcia — rank among the top 10 in the majors in round-trippers.

HR this season:

Luis Robert Jr.: 26
Mookie Betts: 26
Pete Alonso: 26

this is the first HR Derby where at least 3 participants entered with 26+ HR that year since:

2003: Jim Edmonds 28, Carlos Delgado 28, Albert Pujols 27, Jason Giambi 26 https://t.co/tXqct0IrIp

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) July 10, 2023

These figures are in line with the averages since 2015, the first Home Run Derby in which eight players were seeded prior to a three-round tournament. Counting this year (but of course not 2020, when the All-Star Game was canceled due to the pandemic), the contestants have entered the Home Run Derby with an average of 161 homers and an average of 2.4 players who are tied for 10th or better in homers at the All-Star Break.

In addition, there is always a little bit of quirky unpredictability to how the field is composed. The hometown team almost always gets a representative (it’s Rodriguez this year). The only exception since 2015 was last year, when the Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t have a player in the Derby and Albert Pujols appeared as a sentimental choice in his final season,

Whether by intent or accident, bids seem to be fairly spread out. Ohtani and Olson participated in 2021 and Acuna Jr. was a second-time contestant last season.

Only Rodriguez and Alonso are repeat contestants this year and Alonso, the two-time champ who has been in every Derby since his rookie season in 2019 and would likely accept an invitation every year until he’s at least 75 years old, is the lone player in the field for at least a third time. In fact, the only other player appearing for a second time is Guerrero, who set a Derby record with 91 total homers in 2019 but fell to Alonso in the finals.

Plus, it’s the Home Run Derby. No matter who is in the field or who we might wish we could see in the batter’s box, everyone gets entranced once the dingers start flying. All our national and international problems could probably be solved if negotiations took place during the Home Run Derby. 

Alas, such a utopian scenario is unlikely to develop tonight. We’ll have to be content with watching the dingers flying. Here’s a quick look at the odds for tonight’s field, per DraftKings, along with our bracket breakdown, our pick for a winner and a couple prop bets predictions.

Odds to win the Home Run Derby

• Pete Alonso +310
• Vladmir Guerrero Jr. +370
• Julio Rodriguez +400
• Luis Robert Jr. +550
• Adolis Garcia +700
• Mookie Betts +1000
• Randy Arozarena +1100
• Adley Rutschman +1800

The Bracket

• No. 1 Luis Robert Jr. vs. No. 8 Adley Rutschman 
• No. 4 Adolis Garcia vs. No. 5 Randy Arozarena 
• No. 3 Mookie Betts vs. No. 6 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
• No. 2 Pete Alonso vs. No. 7 Julio Rodriguez

Robert could probably walk into your local grocery store and purchase his items unencumbered, which is what happens when you play for the most anonymous big-city franchise in sports. Robert is a worthy no. 1 seed, but Rutschman, whose 12 homers are the fewest in the field, warmed up for the Derby by hitting maybe the most impressive non-De La Cruz/non-Ohtani homer of the season yesterday.

Just a little Home Run Derby preview 😏 pic.twitter.com/3vf57o0gW3

— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) July 9, 2023

Like any good tournament, the 4 vs. 5 matchup is a true coin flip. Garcia, the one-time St. Louis Cardinals castoff, has very quietly turned into one of the steadiest power hitters in the game by hitting 84 homers since 2021. His six homers over the last 15 days tie him for the third-most in the majors with Manny Machado and J.D. Martinez.

Speaking of one-time Cardinals castoffs: Arozarena was acquired by the Tampa Bay Rays from St. Louis in January 2020 in exchange for minor league catcher Edgardo Rodriguez, who never got out of Single-A, as well as pitcher Matthew Liberatore, who has a 6.35 ERA I his first 18 big league games, plus a 2020 supplemental second-round pick. Major oops. With 64 big league homers. Arozarena doesn’t have the raw power of Garcia, but he relishes the spotlight. This will be a fun one.

The hottest human home run hitter on the planet is Betts, whose seven homers over the last 15 days tie him with Ohtani (not of this planet) for the major league lead. With 10 leadoff homers — already tied for the most in big league history prior to Aug. 1 — Betts might prefer to bat first tonight. But whenever he bats, he should be able to outlast Guerrero, who has just six homers in his last 56 games and is in the midst of his quietest season since rookie campaign in 2019.

most leadoff HR before August in a single season:

2023 Mookie Betts: 10
1973 Bobby Bonds: 10
2022 Jose Altuve: 9
2017 George Springer: 9
2003 Alfonso Soriano: 9

IT’S JULY 8 https://t.co/JOercYauk7

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) July 9, 2023

Alonso, as we all know, was born for this event. And as you read this, he’s probably drinking disgusting egg-filled concoctions while blasting the Rocky soundtrack in preparation for his duel with Rodriguez, who ended Alonso’s three-peat hopes last year with a win in the semis.

But while Rodriguez is enduring somewhat of a sophomore slump — his OPS of .721 is nearly 100 points lower than his pre-All-Star Break OPS of .814 last year — he might be better positioned for a run tonight than Alonso, who has just four homers in 75 at-bats since returning from a bruised left wrist.

Alonso has a .626 OPS since returning from the IL on June 18th, not including todays game

— Austin (@2_seamfastball) July 9, 2023

First-Round Predictions

• Rutschman def. Robert
• Garcia def. Arozarena
• Betts def. Guerrero
• Rodriguez def. Alonso

Semifinals Predictions

• Garcia over Rutschman: A catcher has never won the Home Run Derby and Garcia will have quite a head of steam after edging out his friend Arozarena in the closest battle of the first round.
• Betts over Rodriguez: Two hometown contestants have won it all — Todd Frazier of the Reds in 2015 and Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals in 2018 — but the Seattle crowd will be slightly disappointed watching the finals after Betts rolls.

Finals Prediction

• Betts over Garcia (+4500): Speaking of rolls, it’s not really fair that Betts can hit .300 on the diamond, roll a 300 on the bowling alley AND win the Home Run Derby. Maybe MLB can add a punt, pass and kick competition for Betts’ title defense in 2024.

Bonus Picks

• PLAYER TO HIT THE MOST HOME RUNS: He won’t quite pull a Josh Hamilton, but Garcia (+850) will end up with the most after a monster second round.
• TOTAL HOME RUNS: Over 276.5 (-115). That’s just 14.5 more than last season.