2023 MLB Betting: Four Teams With Longer Postseason Odds after Disappointing Starts

The Washington Nationals were 12 games under .500 as Memorial Day weekend dawned in 2019. Two years later, the Atlanta Braves didn’t get over .500 for the first time until Aug. 6. Last season, the Philadelphia Phillies were seven games under .500 when they fired manager Joe Girardi on June 3.

And as we all know, all three teams won the National League pennant — with the Nationals and Braves going on to win the World Series — and proved that even extended early-to-midseason struggles don’t define a team.

But as the final week of April begins today, there are some teams whose slow starts are at least worth monitoring (sorry, not you, Oakland/Las Vegas/TBD Athletics). Here’s a look at four preseason contenders and their chances of climbing back into the race. 

Preseason betting odds from DraftKings as of Opening Day and the current odds are from DraftKings as of Apr. 24.

Chicago White Sox (7-15)

Then: +250 AL Central, +1800 AL pennant, +4000 World Series
Now: +425 to make the playoffs, +700 AL Central +4500 AL pennant, +9000 World Series

There was an expectation a new voice in the dugout might help the White Sox bounce back after Tony La Russa’s well-intentioned but ultimately uncomfortably unsuccessful second stint on the South Side. But the Pale Hose look just as meh under first-time skipper Pedro Grifol as a once seemingly wide-open championship window continues sliding downward.

Perpetual building blocks Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada are still injury-prone and badly missed in a lineup that has five regulars posting an OPS+ of 70 or worse. White Sox starters have walked 54 batters while posting a 4.90 ERA in 115 2/3 innings while their relievers have a 6.22 ERA.

it’s honestly malpractice of some sort what’s happened with the white sox. they’re supposed to be young and fun. they’re supposed to be a winning team. opportunities have certainly been squandered over there. https://t.co/OOVTgwehu2

— shakeia (@curlyfro) April 19, 2023

The mediocre AL Central — led by the Minnesota Twins at 12-10 — and the presence of the ever-down bad Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals around the fourth-place White Sox give them a chance at authoring a feel-good story for the ages following the hopefully imminent return of popular closer Liam Hendriks, who announced last week he is in remission and cancer-free following a bout with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.

But Chicago, in the midst of 10 straight games against the Toronto Blue Jays and the scorching Tampa Bay Rays, needs to start making up ground during a rough stretch of the schedule.

Seattle Mariners (10-12)

Then: +320 AL West, +900 AL pennant, +1900 World Series
Now: +160 to make the playoffs, +550 AL West, +1400 AL pennant, +3000 World Series

The most recent AL poster boys for it being far too early to panic. The Mariners, who just took two of three from the similarly slow-starting St. Louis Cardinals, were 10 games under .500 last June 19 but recovered to snap the longest playoff drought in the four major sports and advanced to the AL Division Series, where they were swept in three games but still gave the Houston Astros their biggest pre-World Series test.

And with Jarred Kelenic shedding his bust status, Ty France and Julio Rodriguez building on their breakout 2022 campaigns and Luis Castillo looking like the ace the Mariners traded the farm to acquire last year, the Mariners should remain in the thick of the race this year. That said, the presence of the revitalized Texas Rangers and an AL East in which everyone is above .500 could make for a complicated path to the playoffs for Seattle, which is 11th in the AL, ahead of a quartet of teams on pace for 100 losses. 

Philadelphia Phillies (11-12)

Then: +425 NL East, +900 NL pennant, +1800 World Series
Now: +115 to make the playoffs, +1100 NL East, +1400 NL pennant, +2800 World Series

And here’s the NL standard for never panicking, off to their usual slow start! That the Phillies’ top three players this season, per WAR at Baseball-Reference, are Brandon Marsh, Nick Castellanos and Bryson Stott indicates there’s ample possibility of a similar resurgence. Bryce Harper, who had Tommy John surgery last fall, could return as a designated hitter next month and the top of the order likes of Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto are all off to slow starts.

Likewise, co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler (a combined 3-3 with a 5.07 ERA) won’t pitch like this for long. And if any of the slumping players don’t snap out of it or other needs crop up? Hall of Fame-bound team president Dave Dombrowski, an all-in guy in a tanking world, will deal from whatever prospect depth the Phillies have to bolster the roster for another playoff run, even if they have to begin it as the last wild card again.

St. Louis Cardinals (9-13)

Then: -125 NL Central, +750 NL pennant, +1600 World Series
Now: +100 to make the playoffs, +240 NL Central, +1100 NL pennant, +2500 World Series

Even one-sixth of the way through the season, it’s unsettling to see the Cardinals under .500 and near the bottom of the NL Central. With Saturday’s 5-4 loss to the Mariners, the Cardinals fell five games under .500 for the first time since 2017. The Cardinals haven’t finished last in their division since 1990, when they were still in the NL East and Hall of Famer Whitey Herzog opened the season as their manager.

That streak should be easy to maintain this year with the Cincinnati Reds in the nascent stages of a rebuild. The Cardinals seem likely to run off a But between the rest of the division exceeding expectations and the Cardinals’ pitching woes — the only starter with an ERA below 4.50 is Jack Flaherty, who has walked 19 batters in 27 1/3 innings — the climb back to their usual standards may be a little thornier than usual, even with a perfectly fine lineup in which none of the eight players with at least 50 plate appearances has an OPS+ below 95.