The Tampa Bay Rays are the only Major League Baseball team to get off to a record-setting start this season. But they’re not the only ones to emerge as a potential surprise contender over the first three weeks of the campaign.
Here’s six other teams — three from each league — who have exceeded expectations thus far, along with their then-and-now playoff odds.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Arizona Diamondbacks (11-8)
Then: +550 to make playoffs, +4500 NL West, +7000 NL pennant, +17000 World Series
Now: +300 to make playoffs, +1200 NL West, +6000 NL pennant, +13000 World Series
The Diamondbacks, who are last in the NL in on-base percentage (.304), rank 12th in ERA (4.96) and have a negative run differential (minus-7), seem like a prime candidate for regression. But the NL West appears to be in a strange bit of flux. The Los Angeles Dodgers, who are apparently going to try Mookie Betts at shortstop later this week, seem content to see if they can win the World Series by merely squeaking into the playoffs.
The San Diego Padres are under .500 as they await the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. and the Rockies and San Francisco Giants, a combined 11-25, already appear hopelessly behind. With room for improvement on both sides of the ball — promising outfielders Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy are hitting just .165 but have just 18 strikeouts in 103 at-bats, while the rotation will get better now that Madison Bumgarner is removed from the roster — there’s a path here to season-long contention for the Diamondbacks.
Milwaukee Brewers (14-5)
Then: +175 NL Central, +1400 NL pennant, +3500 World Series
Now: -360 to make playoffs, -150 NL Central, +750 NL pennant, +1700 World Series
While the 1982 Atlanta Braves and 1987 Brewers now have some company in the 13-0 club, their current incarnations are doing pretty well as the co-leaders in the NL. But the Braves seem to be a better bet moving forward than the Brewers, whose 19-game start — tied for the second-best in franchise history with the 2014 club — comes with some concerning underlying numbers.
The Brewers rank fifth in the NL in runs scored (95) and first in ERA (2.96), but their OPS+ of 102 is the lowest of anyone in the top five and their fielding independent ERA of 4.21 suggests some regression is coming. That said, with the St. Louis Cardinals struggling and the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds in various stages of their rebuilds, the Brewers are in the right division to withstand a slide.
Pittsburgh Pirates (12-7)
Then: +3000 NL Central, +12000 NL pennant, +25000 World Series
Now: +850 to make playoffs, +2000 NL Central, +15000 NL pennant, +25000 World Series
Why doesn’t anyone respect the Pirates? (Looks back at the last 30 years) Oh yeah. Despite their best 19-game stretch since 2019, the Pirates are a longer shot to win the NL pennant than they were on Opening Day. And with the playoff odds for Nationals and Colorado Rockies already off the board, only the Reds (+2000) have longer odds of making the postseason than the Pirates.
Say this for the Pirates, though: They did what decent teams need to do by outscoring the Rockies 33-9 in a three-game sweep at Coors Field this week. Their starting pitching, led by Johan Oviedo and Mitch Keller, has been solid and Andrew McCutchen, back where he won the MVP in 2013, might be channeling his inner Willie Stargell (Google it, youngsters) by posting an OPS of 1.003 in his first 17 games. The Pirates will miss the electric Oneil Cruz, out until August with a broken ankle, and the specter of a trade involving star outfielder Bryan Reynolds will hang over the team now that extension talks have broken off. But at least the Pirates are intriguing for the first time in almost a decade.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Baltimore Orioles (11-7)
Then: +2500 AL East, +3500 AL pennant, +8000 World Series
Now: +330 to make playoffs, +2500 AL East, +5000 AL pennant, +10000 World Series
The Orioles didn’t do much last winter after they won 84 games following a four-season trip to tank town, but if the season ended today (we know, we know) the Baby Birds would head to a wild card series. The oddsmakers seem skeptical about the caliber of opponent the Orioles have faced — they’ve gone 7-3 against the Oakland Athletics, Chicago White Sox and Washington Nationals after opening 4-5 against the Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and New York Yankees — and while they rank fourth in the AL with 99 runs scored, a team ERA of 4.68 is a little worrisome.
But the schedule remains favorable for the next two weeks for the Orioles, who are slated to play 13 games against a trio of disappointing teams in the Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals. They’ve got a chance to build a little cushion.
Minnesota Twins (11-7)
Then: +215 AL Central, +1600 AL pennant, +3500 World Series
Now: -180 to make playoffs, -105 AL Central, +900 AL pennant, +2000 World Series
The surprise return of Carlos Correa seemed to portend a return to contention for the Twins, but they’re atop the AL Central thanks to an even more stunning development. Minnesota starters are averaging an MLB-best 5.9 innings per start — up from 4.8 innings a year ago, when they ranked 27th ahead of only the 100-loss Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates and the ever-tinkering Tampa Bay Rays.
Sonny Gray, off-season acquisition Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan have combined to go 7-1 with a 1.97 ERA. That effectiveness is likely to wane somewhat, but if they can remain durable, the Twins will be well-positioned once the likes of Correa, Bryon Buxton and Jose Miranda (batting a combined .213 with four homers and 21 RBIs) get untracked.
Texas Rangers (12-6)
Then: +850 AL West, +2000 AL pennant, +4500 World Series
Now: +100 to make playoffs, +300 AL West +1300 AL pennant, +3000 World Series
We told you Bruce Bochy didn’t delay his Hall of Fame induction just to wallow in mediocrity in Texas. The Rangers have the second-best run differential in baseball (+43), trailing only the Rays, and rank fifth in the AL with a 3.49 ERA. They’ve also displayed their impressive depth: Dane Dunning, who has tossed 15 1/3 scoreless innings, threw 4 1/3 innings of one-hit ball Monday night after Jacob deGrom exited with a wrist injury following four no-hit innings. The Rangers are also 5-2 since shortstop Corey Seager’s scorching start was interrupted by a left hamstring injury. With six straight games against the Athletics and Cincinnati Reds awaiting the Rangers beginning Friday, the arrow is pointing straight up.
